Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Wednesday 28 April

First Sovereign CDS go up, then bond yields blow out and then the currency drops.  Every Euro drop has been preceeded by this.

It is very spooky that the US indices did not bounce and closed so bearish last night and I am not just saying that because of the full moon.  Full moons and new moons are often turning points for the FTSE and sterling.  Lets see what today does.

USDCAD short stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long 82.00 stop 81.70 target 83.30 countertrend
CRUDE long closed 50% @ 3R 82.90 (+1.5R)
EURUSD short 1.3260 stop 1.3280 target 1.3150 / 1.30
GBPJPY long closed 1.4330 (+2.6R)
AUDJPY short 87.00 stop 87.20 PT  84.50/83.80
CRUDE long closed balance 82.60 (+1R) - waiting for US open now
AUDUSD short 0.9240 stop 0.9255 PT 0.9130
Im doubled up Aussie, I know.  Bad
CRUDE short 82.40 stop 82.70 PT 80
CRUDE stopped out breakeven post inventories
EURAUD short 1.4350 stop 1.440 daily inside bar break
AUDUSD closed breakeven.  Not looking good.
AUDJPY closed 86.80 (+1R) "
EURUSD closed 50% @ 1.3150 (+1.5R)
EURUSD closed 1.3175 post FOMC
CRUDE long 80.03 stop 82.63, post FOMC, PT 84.50
CRUDE long closed 80.30 - no bounce (+0.67R)
Asian session:
EURUSD short 1.32 stop 1.3225 PT parity :)
AUDJPY short 86.80 stop 87.10 PT 85.60
NZDUSD short 0.7180 stop 0.7210 PT 0.71 / 0.67
GBPJPY short 1.4255 stop 1.4305 TP 1.4105/1.39 - 4hr bear flag
AUDJPY stopped out (-R)
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:
EURAUD short 1.4350 stop 1.440
NZDUSD short 0.7180 stop 0.7210
GBPJPY short 1.4255 stop 1.4305


  1. whiplash wednesday again, personally I still dont know why Euro has a 1.30 something handle apart from the blindingly obvious mass short positions in the market. Nor why the dow is above 11000...

  2. Agree. I think we see EURUSD in the teens later this year. Lets see what the US does today, its strange hardly any bounce.

  3. Did you read that article, well study/journal which calum put up on t2w. It was about how different things effect traders, from weather, tempterature everything. (Can only say I skimmed it).

    If you want a read I'll set up a link in 10mins!


  4. Rips into donkey a bit aswell :)

  5. Nic, I think Right Field has the right idea over at Macro Man today.

  6. Karen, I just saw his comments and I agree.
    Did you see this? someone will be wrong:

  7. Today we are having a short covering rally covering yesterday's shorts. However, this also suggests that market is now out of shorts so will be looking to go long anything accept EURO until another crisis looms on the head and market decides to short again. EG is backup again. Looking forward to touch around 87500 (trednline before the break) to go short.

  8. Hi Ams. In the ugly and uglier competition that's a good level ;)

  9. Nic, Chet made his morning post over that Ken Fischer blabber.. then Ben dug up previous "very wrong" quotes he made in earlier years. $wtic didn't react to worthless inventory data.. seems to be stuck on USD.

  10. Oh thanks Karen.

    Right I got my stops tightened up waiting for the German parliament. If its a Nien then will be like the first bailout vote in the US all over again but if its a Ja then we could rally big.