Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thursday 01 April

I am starting my day with the Asian session because the markets look very interesting to me tonight and we could be at a bit of a turning point or breakouts ...
I have a lot of markets at key levels or trend-line resistance and the charts are looking like the dollar rally could resume tomorrow and the yen could strengthen too which is odd because they have been moving in opposite direction of late.  That would normally only happen if stocks sell off so we will see how that plays out.  If it does then it means all the yen crosses will be very good shorts ...
I know I am a bit of a perpetual dollar bull but technically I favour turns here.

I have gold at daily trendline resistance from the beginning of March and below the 1117 resistance level.
Crude with a possible double top although that is a very hard chart to short ...
Cable banging its head on 1.5250 resistance and trend-line resistance from the end of February.
EURUSD below tough 1.3530-80 resistance zone and daily 20 ema and descending daily trendline resistance around 1.36
USDCHF sitting on big round number 1.05 support and trend-line support from the October lows ...
USDJPY is just below the key 93.75 January highs.  It really needs to take this level out to convince me this is the big breakout we have been waiting for, if it falls short or double tops it will not be so auspicious.
Most of the XXXJPY crosses are at fib levels or SR levels I would short from .... CADJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, etc.,

USDCHF long 1.0505 stop 1.0480 target 1.06 / 1.12
NZDJPY short 66.10 stop 66.40 target 65
CRUDE short 84.50 stop 84.75 target 82.75
EURUSD short 134.95 stop 1.3515 - CHF is on fire so trying this one
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
S+P futs balance stopped out BE
USDCHF closed BE
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
AUDUSD closed BE - dollar not going my way this morning
S+P futs short 1175 stop 1178 target 1060 (AB=CD)
NZDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY short 143.60 stop 1.4410 target 140.60 (61fib)
AUDCAD closed 0.9280 (+2.12R)
CRUDE short 85.00 stop 85.30 target 82 / 79
AUDCAD short 92.70 stop 93 target break of flag (re-entry)
AUDUSD short 0.92 stop 0.9220 target 0.9140 (double top)
AUDCAD re-entry stopped out (-1R)
S+P closed pre NFP @ 1170.10 (+1.63R)

Open trades:
NZDUSD short 0.7095 stop 0.7120
AUDUSD short 0.92 stop 0.9220
GBPJPY short 143.60 stop 1.4410
CRUDE short 85.00 stop 85.30

Gold daily
horizontal and trendline resistance

EURUSD daily
50fib and trendline resistance

EURJPY daily
Big overhead resistance level at 127

USDCHF daily
Rising trendline support, 50fib and 1.05 round number


  1. zzzzzz
    I am holding and building my crude short from 82 then every 100 pips and it seems this puppy is just looking to go high & high...

    Don't know if global economy can afford it but that's how it is..

    Well it'll tank once market is done with correction or dow touched 1100.. I expect 80 to be the support now.

    Now i know why the sucker went high to 150 in the last few years...WAR!! Just name something related to it (terrorist, Iran threat etc) and oil runs on the upside.

  2. Also think we will touch 852xx where I'll add another lot.

    Make or break this trade is for me.

  3. Ams I agree with you re crude. I just got stopped but I get the same feeling that the dollar has another rally and this is the top of the range for a swing for me.
    We are fighting the seasonal "driving season" bullishness unfortunately, so billy big balls time.

  4. GJ just touched it's utl @ 143...either it goes up today for 150 or it's tanking back to it's range...

    I reckon some selling due to holidays in the UK.
    Let's see generally market proves me wrong :-)

  5. I have this ugly feeling I maybe going the wrong way on the dollar. It's idiots hour in the US, hopefully over soon.

  6. My fib stuff says 1175.70 should hold as resist in the S+P and then down ... we will see

  7. my numbers are for futures obviously

  8. Hey Nic, is it you in the logo pic diving in the lake/sea or just a random pic?

    Tell me about it. Dollar is waiting for tomm..when it'll rally or tank.. Same goes for cable, euro etc... don't think we will see much more upside to them then 50-80 pips...

    I reckon 11000 for dow and 1200 for s&p. US govt left no choice for poor traders to park billions they have other than equities. Aussie has given them breathing space so they go long when it tanks.

    Oh, it's holiday here but Asia, US markets will be open and may be some IB's in the UK.

  9. GBPJPY has 7 daily green candles in a row ... that is unusual. I am looking to sell the 61.8fib at 134.70

  10. Ams .. is that cos you want to know if my thighs are really that big and strong ;)
    I confess I am a bit of a swimmer

  11. Ams I just got an email - trading idea - "oil is ready to ignite". My contrarian indicators are going off, its make or break time.

  12. lol....

    Picture is tiny and I didn't have the pleasure to see details in the cannot say :-)

    Women genetically have stronger thighs and backbone then men.

    oil email from where?

    Well it better break this damn thing economies cannot afford crude at 85+. Let's hope...