Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Wednesday 21 April 2010

I know it doesn't look so good this morning but I am still bullish USD this week.  Shorter term I still have the dollar in a rising channel and until it breaks out I am staying bullish.
EURUSD has broken the tail of the daily and weekly bullish hammers overnight.  This could be a clear out of stops before a move higher but until the trend changes I am a seller of rallies.

USDCAD is the only worrying chart.  After the BoC removed its lower for longer language the market is pricing in a rate hike very soon.  USDCAD often leads the way so I am ready to be wrong but I am looking for price action to  buy USDCAD at the 78.6fib level at 0.9900.
Fabulous earnings from Apple last night mean today will no doubt start with a rally in the indices and commodity currencies.

GBP is well supported this morning with the market expecting much better unemployment numbers in a couple of hours.
EURGBP is working out well and on its way to my target of 86.00

AUDUSD short stopped out (-1R)
BRENT CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
EURGBP closed 50% @3R 0.8720 (+1.5R)
BRENT CRUDE short 85.50 stop 85.75 target 80
SILVER short 17.850 stop 18.000 target 17.400
NZDUSD short 0.7110 stop .07125 target 0.7045
EURJPY short closed 50% @3R 124.35 (+1.5R)
EURUSD short addition closed 50% @3R 1.3365 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short 0.9296 stop 0.9326 target 0.9216 / 0.90
BRENT short stopped out (-1R)
EURJPY balance stopped out 125.05 (+0.5R)
SILVER short stopped out (-1R) - in retrospect a dumb trade

Open trades:
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.3485 stop 1.3525 - 1/2
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1/4
EURGBP short 0.8765 stop 0.8780 - 1/2
NZDUSD short 0.7110 stop .07125
AUDUSD short 0.9296 stop 0.932


  1. Good gal Nic, made right choice in shorting crude.... seems it has been held by someone @ 645 level. Pound is bullish for this week and won't go down much until election. Who knows the fate of this puppy after that. I think it's time to say goodbye to EU. That sucker is in a whole lot of mess. Look at equities and currencies, no match at all. Wonder what's going to happen when markets are looking for correction.
    I think IR rise will be on the cards to prevent currencies tanking.

  2. Hi Ams
    I managed crude very badly, leaving it for today. Commodity currencies down but commods just choppy today. Correlations all messed up!
    EURGBP - that weekly wedge is about to go ...