Friday, April 30, 2010

Friday 30 April

If you are American please pass this video around: 
End Too Big to Fail for Good

I have a small theory that the US markets don't care about Greece/Portugal/Spain yet and much of the losses two days ago were due to the Goldman grilling on Capitol Hill.  Then today we had the news Goldman would settle the charges and quite a rally (I think it was the biggest up day in the SPX this year).  If that is the case then Mr American Market might not like this news: US politicians talk criminal charges as Blankfein warns staff of more pain ahead.   Also Gold is supposed to be the financial sector hedge and Gold has been VERY sensitive to the Goldman ups and downs ....


AUDUSD
Breakout and back above trendline support, same as indices.
Next resistance is 0.94 (November high)



GOLD
Daily chart - bull flag, break of 1175 means back to 1206 then 1230
Wedge is clear on 1hr chart.


USDCAD
Still in a wedge looking for a breakout.
Downside target 0.99, topside 1.15



GBPAUD short
240 min chart
Wedge has broken short, and retested from underneath.
I also like EURAUD short and AUDCHF long.


If we get a risk aversion day Friday then sterling is very sensitive to the financial sector and I like cable short.
Silver looks to be making an inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart, one to watch.
There is no change to my EURUSD bearishness and if this resistance at 1.3260 does not hold I am looking to sell at 1.34 and 1.36 levels.

GBPAUD short  1.6500 stop 1.6560 PT 1.6370 / 1.6250
CABLE short 1.5350 stop 1.5380 PT 1.52 off 78.6fib
GOLD long 1175 stop 1172 PT 1186
GBPJPY short 144.50 stop 144.80 PT 142 - 4hr pin
USDCHF short 1.0760 stop 1.08 PT 1.0650 / 1.06
USDCHF closed BE - bad idea.
USDCAD long 1.006 stop 1.0035 PT 1.018
GOLD closed 1180 - stocks cratering (+1.6R)
GBPAUD closed 1.6408 (+1.5R) - this trade does not work with risk-off
EURJPY short 125.10 stop 12550 PT 122

32 comments:

  1. Might be nice to get some shorts on GBP into next week :), buy the news though. (Tory win).

    Phil

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  2. Mornin Nic, if the paper shredders at Goldies hadn´t already been working overtime, they certainly will be now....

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  3. Morning!
    USDCAD just double bottomed above 1.00
    I like that if the GDP numbers aren't great.

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  4. yeh been watching that. just short euraud balance, cable, eur n keeping a close eye on these yen pairs. Crude have limit at 85.75 but by rights i shud skip trying to sell until we get a trend break n retest...

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  5. moody´s downgrades greek banks

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  6. I haven't been trading crude v well. I see what you are looking at though.

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  7. just think that there is huge political pressure to keep oil prices surpressed in complete contrast to the previous administration. Best trade confirmation for a short crude position would be a T-Boone Pickens call of $120 pb in three months.. Actually, I think the whole reason that nothing has been done on Iran is very much dependant on the fear of oil price shocks affecting the tentative recovery.

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  8. Thats a good point about Iran, I hadn't thought about it that way.
    I really am longer term USD bullish and I think that should hold oil prices down. It does look like some short term dollar weakness so I would not be surprised to see a test of 90. Madness considering we are swimming in crude.

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  9. stocks back our favourite line again...

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  10. wow I think cos of the Goldman stuff and downgrades.

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  11. thinks its this swap line rumour

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  12. There is a fight over this line ...

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  13. OK, now that I have been whipped worse than a bad slave..I´ll give trading away for this week and start taking bets on ¨What has been the most uttered word in dealing rooms today? ¨. Ill see if ForexLive can donate a t-shirt for the winner.....

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  14. Its very ugly, I did not have fun yesterday.
    I won't say the word but I know the one you mean.

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  15. Nic, Fed lookin at term deposits fr banks... these stocks should be soon seeing the writing on the wall

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  16. From MrTopStep re indices:
    "being around the floors for over 30 years I can honestly say I have never seen anything like the current price action / up move"

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  17. he has never seen the kind of free money that has been injected into the system either...once the tap gets closed n the plug pulled think it will all end in tears.... think hope wish....

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  18. reverse repos, upping the discount rate, end to mbs purchases, now term deposits.... if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then....

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  19. i'll believe it when i see it.. and so far i'm not..

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  20. The bulls couldn't hold it above the line Bear ...

    Agree with Karen too, but I am super cynical.

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  21. penny dropped on our stock jockey mates

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  22. Yeah lets see what magic Monday does this week
    Crude looks like a nice sell now, a wedge breakout

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  23. Thanks Nic and have a great weekend. Always a nice end to the week when stocks end on the -ve side of the ledger.

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  24. heres an interesting couple of charts to have a look at over the weekend
    Gold 15yr vs dow 50 yr
    http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100430-uagh-125kb
    Dow now compared to 2002 bottom
    http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100430-u9tg-186kb

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  25. Wow those charts are interesting!
    The dow one makes it look like we could be in for some sideways chop for the rest of the year.
    Thanks Bear
    Have a great weekend

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  26. What happened to oil here..markets tank'd badly but oil went UP. I'ven't seen this before. Is this common Nic?
    Perhaps this is because of incident in gulf of mexico. It can't be, because if that's the case then we will only see oil prices going up from here :-)

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  27. ams, think that the rally in oil was more to do with concerns over supply. Firstly, that the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which handles more than 1 million barrels a day of crude oil imports and is connected by pipeline to the biggest U.S. refining region may be affected ( which at present it has not) and secondly that we will see not only a halt to all new offshore drilling but also shutdowns of other offshore platforms due to inspections. Adding to these points on the demand side of the equation we had the fed staying lower for longer, solid employment data out of germany, the germans finally coming around to the idea of stopping the sovereign debt contagion in Europe.
    On the technical side daily crude still remains in a strong uptrend channel with the 50% fibo at 90.20 and channel res at 91.50. 4 hrly charts are bullish with previous highs at 87.10/30 looking like the target for this rally.

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  28. I agree but the hanging man doji on the weekly crude chart is interesting and $87.00 is the 1.27 fib extension. So to me if $87.00 doesn't hold as a swing high then we go to $91.70 ...

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  29. Amazing (horrifying) new photos of the oil rig exploding http://bit.ly/cB3IQ5

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  30. We should be long shrimp futures:
    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/04/30/shrimp-futures-soar-on-gulf-oil-spill/

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  31. Cheers Bear!

    That's what I think but this is absolute shambles. I mean it should have dropped some, I was hoping to buy :-)

    I do not know what genuine impact there is with regards to drilling projects, for something which is not even in production yet. But, market is always right. So whosoever is buying knows something or perhaps they are stocking.

    I reckon we will be seeing 90 sooner then we can imagine perhaps next week itself.

    Yup Nic, imagine the effect on sea life due to this. Total disaster.

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