Monday, April 19, 2010

Late ... Monday 19 April 2010

Sunday analysis will be Monday analysis this week ... I got very behind.
I am still bearish EUR and EURJPY, will look to sell again on a pullback.

EURJPY short closed balance123.00 (+3.3R)
GBPJPY closed balance 25% @139.50 (+2.5R)
EURUSD closed short addition 1.3440 (+4R) - 61.8fib
GOLD short 1129.50 stop 1134.50 PT 1118 - break of Fridays low
GBPUSD long 1.52 stop 1.5170 target 1.5353 - countertrend
GBPJPY long 140.25 stop 139.55 target 142.00 - countertrend
CRUDE (June) closed 25% @82.50 (+2.07R)
GOLD stopped out (-1R)
GBPUSD closed 50% @3R 1.5290 (+1.5R)
Asian session
GBPUSD closed balance 1.5340 (+2.3R)
GBPJPY closed 142 target (+2.5R)
I am waiting for UK CPI numbers tomorrow morning to see what sterling does next..

Open trades:
EURCHF short 1.4365 stop 1.4385
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2 
USDCAD long 1.0001 stop 0.9976 - 1/4
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1/4


  1. Hi Nic,

    80 percent of the world is now short everything except the dollar. I reckon market is oversold. It's only GS news for god sake. Max is they have to give penalty by liquidating their positions. This is way way off. They ain't gonna let firms reputation go down the drain that easy. It'll take months. We have to see other shoes now dropped i.e. other banks being dragged in this mess. Me thinks we go up today or atleast not as bad sell as we are expecting.

    Let's see..


  2. or if we go down more today with aggressive selling. We are in for a much anticipated correction. Specially on crude and aussie, cad. Since market needs money to sustain the loses made on the above mentioned rising stars. Biggest gainers will be the biggest losers.
    Check out eur/cad. Nice long awaiting..

  3. Yeah Monday is usually the day we go up and not my favourite trading day.
    I am not adding shorts and taking profit off. I agree with you although about the over sold.
    Time to get the charts out and mark the levels to sell again and then wait for it to get there.
    Goldman Sachs results tomorrow, we can sell again after that.

  4. Ams I am buying some cable here. It got badly beaten down with GS and election news, so looking for a bounce back to retest the trendline. Will post charts and analysis later.

  5. hmm, I do not know why cable has been dragged so badly when the weakest currency is euro and still I see EG to 88+. Regardless of chances that EU might collapse EG is so strong. What's gonna happen when euro becomes actually bullish. EG will come to parity me thinks.
    Well you are a smart trader because you keep your SL to minimum so you can take the plunge as we have plenty of news to tempt the market to go long till wednesday.

    I am more inclined towards gold. It has almost touched it's trendline (neckline) now. we should be looking to go long on gold. I've doubts about crude though because of europe aviation industry in trouble.
    Look at the irony, high oil prices are coming down becaus of aviation crisis.
    US govt got what they wanted banking reform. Not that it's not planned. Finally conspiracy against THE King of IB's GS this time.
    Indexes are on all time high so markets can plunge for correction. Things are well timed.

    I feel bad for poor aviation guys though. I hope someone is ready to buyout small companies who goes out of business due to this.


  6. Aviation was already in trouble, this volcano is very bad news, I agree.
    Gold needs to get a bit lower before I buy, but I agree with your view.