Friday, April 27, 2012

Spain Pain shortlived

S&P downgraded Spain to B last night and for some bizarre reason the market was surprised.  My long positions looked like crap this morning (AUD got within 2 pips of my stop & I got stopped out of some crude) but you can't keep a good market down and a sharp rally / sell off in USD underway.
Technically most markets either in congestion or have broken out to the 'risk-on' side.

James commented that USDJPY humped itself on the BoJ news last night.  It did but its also a messy retest of the broken bear flag for more downside.  4hr chart USDJPY

AUDUSD headed for 1.0435 pivot next.  A close above1.04513 confirms the bottom and projects a targets of 1.0595 & 1.0670

NZDUSD is setting up 4th inside day in a row (Krabel fans will be watching). Whilst I really like it back to the pivot at 7975 if the broader market is rallying 'risk on' then its just going to stay in this range

More charts for everything this weekend ...

USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36
AUDUSD closed half position 104.30 (+1.5R)  
CL long from 103.90 balance stopped out on spike (-0.5R)
WTI long from 103.05 closed balance 104.25 (+2R)
(-- need CL to close above 104.66 to stay bullish & so far not happening, when I exit it will)

Open positions:
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position

AUDUSD long 10370 stop 1.0350 target 106  - half position

A great day!

Thursday, April 26, 2012

26 April 2012

USDCAD has broken out, much like cable.  Most of the other major FX pairs are still rangebound.  I usually consider CAD a leading indicator so could be a sign of things to come for the USD.

USDCAD daily chart

USDJPY has broken the bear flag for a move lower (4hr chart).  Selling a retest of 81.07 is a nice short entry for a move back to 78.30

Emini S&P fake-out breakout of the range?  Thursdays are often bullish trend days in the US session so waiting to see how this plays out.  Nasdaq is same setup but a channel breakout, not a horizontal range.

WTI June long 104.05 stop 103.90 target breakout of channel
WTI June long stopped out 103.90   (-1R)
WTI June long 103.90 stop 103.70 target break above 104.55 for 110
US Open: AUDUSD long 10370 stop 1.0350 target  104.30 & above
WTI June long from 103.90 banked 50% 104.40 (+1.5R)

Open positions:
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position
WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target - half position

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

FOMC day charts

UK posted negative GDP for trhe second month in a row and slips back into recession.  Temporary or a sign of things to come?
Otherwise pretty calm markets into todays FOMC.  FOMC shouldn't matter as the Fed have promised to hold rates low until at least 2014 but market is still stalling.
Apple (AAPL) smashed earnings last night and twitter is full of the pundits (who were ALL bearish end of last week) now calling for $800 and $1000. 

WTI - CL June daily bull flag or stay in the wedge & more downside?
Bigger picture we are still in a bearish gartley pattern (see here chart from 7 weeks ago) but CL a better long set up than Brent.  If this flag breaks to the upside and we close above 110 then upside targets are 116.50 & 121.60

AUDUSD 4 hr chart.  Similar setup, channel/wedge set for bullish breakout to the upside after triple bottom now on 50fib level

GBPJPY daily At resistance within a wedge (like everything else).  Bigger picture is a bearish bat pattern 

E-mini S&P June futures  rangebound, approaching the top (again)

I should have sold cable on the GDP this morning but bottled out.
I will buy AUDUSD on a breakout of this channel. 

EURUSD banked half 1.3212 +1.5R

Open positions:
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position
 WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target - half position

Be lucky for FOMC :)

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

EUR crosses

EURGBP daily
EURGBP has really been respecting the fib swing from the Oct08 lows to Dec08 high and we are still in the range of that swing. So now we re back at the 78fib and swing highs from the summer 08 again it should bounce this is a major pivot zone.
Weekly chart
Bigger picture I think this level breaks and we go to 0.79 then 0.77

I bought the break of the bear flag I posted on twitter last week.  I am still long. Upside target 1.3167 with a bump at 1.2970

EURJPY daily
Not as bullish as it looks because we haven't taken out the last (Oct11) swing high but holding above the 105.70 pivot level is positive.  Below 105.70 I would be a buyer at 101.36 for a massive inverse head and shoulders reversal.

EURCHF daily chart
I am not long, I have been selling little rallies and exiting on dips to 1.20  The fibonacci pattern, the chart pattern, and the fact that the whole world and his dog is long EURCHF tells me to be flat or short. I do not know the political mechanism that would get us there but my target is 1.1890 and I would buy it there

I am long EURAUD from last week and I bought some EURUSD and WTI crude today. WTI stuck at the weekly pivot level 103.80, I already have half off and will exit if we can't clear this level soon I am not holding overnight.  EURUSD is a swing back to the top of the wedge 1.33 level but may hold half for an upside break

EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33
WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target
 WTI June long exited half position 103.95 +1.5R

from last week:
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position left

Monday, April 23, 2012

June Brent, WTI & Natgas

At this time I am selling rallies in Brent and buying dips in WTI crude

Brent daily chart
Bearish harmonic pattern, below the 120 triple top level of last summers highs is  bearish.  Next support 115 & 113.80
Brent weekly chart
I know some people will look at this and laugh.  I will just say open your mind to the possibility ...

CL - WTI crude hourly
This 102-102.30 pretty nice pivot to buy off (probably tomorrow for me now) now we have taken out the stops below last weeks low.  Holding below here sets up a retest of 100.80 for sure. I'm OK with being wrong.

Natgas Daily chart
Bullish reversal candle but holding below $2.00 round number and no trend change yet. Taking out last weeks high at 2.016 might be a setup for the very brave to then buy the next dip for a run to 2.208.

Stock index charts

Emini S&P 4hr
4hr chart ... looks like a bearish flag break but on a Monday when you have really bearish starts like today the US often gobbles them up so shorts beware at this point.
Weekly chart 
Bigger picture weekly chart is turning bearish (although not as bad as EU indexes) back below the 1375 pivot is not good but we could find some support from the mid channel area. Solid support at 1340 then 1317.

Nasdaq (emini chart) weekly
On its way back to retest support 2420 area.  Hourly chart is oversold now and monthly support at 2622 could stop the drop for today.  4 weeks red in a row in springtime is a little unusual too.
4hr chart channel
This is what I am watching for direction, support 2622

FTSE weekly diamond (not as big as Ibex tho)
Daily chart
Support at the 5500 pivot but below that harmonic pattern & measured move target is 5281 again. 5660 a good level to sell again

DAX weekly chart
Bearish harmonic pattern, a bear flag or has it gone too far?  Only below 6440 pivot gets me really bearish & says 4450 to me

USD crosses

Dollar Index:
Monthly chart.
My view is we are on our way back to the top of the wedge and we have hit mid pattern congestion or are we headed back to the 76.40-77.20 zone before higher.

Daily chart

Daily chart shows harmonic pattern setting up if we break this wedge to the downside with a measured move and fib target zone 76.20-40 where I would be a buyer

This tightening up in the dollar index is pretty clear in the major pairs with GBP the strongest vs the dollar with a break to the upside and NZD & just behind AUD as the weakest.  EUR & CHF are in tight wedges setting up breakout trades

EURUSD daily
I like EURUSD long on dips to 1.3837 where I am a seller again
EURUSD hourly channel support 

GBPUSD weekly - huge bullish week last week, on its way back to the top of the wedge, are people pricing in a UK rate hike now Posen has flipped?  I am watching a retest of 1.60 to buy.  
Cable hourly channel in play now

AUDUSD daily chart
After double bottom at the 50fib Aussie has held in the channel and rolled over. My downside targets for this bearish pattern are below parity at 98 if the 1.0250 level does not hold this time
Weekly chart bigger picture has Aussie in a bearish AB=CD from the 08 lows

NZDUSD weekly chart
(also bearish harmonic pattern) After weeks chopping around above 2008 highs back to 0.7978 support next looks most likely

USDCAD daily chart
My worst performing market, need to remove my own limits, it's been a long time since this market was trending, rangebound since the start of the year, buy the bottom & sell the top til it breaks.

USDCHF daily chart
Another wedge, there is a pattern here ... ;)

USDJPY daily chart
JPY has outperformed the dollar this week & month so far. April is seasonally end of year yen repatriation month. Starting to get that bull flag look which sets up a nice trade for down the road ...80.00 looks like such an easy buy level it got frontrun last time we got close, but my money says 79.50 & 78.30 are better levels.