Friday, April 23, 2010

Friday 23 April

A quiet morning so far I am waiting for UK GDP numbers.
After the big moves overnight down in AUD and EUR the markets I expect some back and fill for the USD but it feels like a scary Friday when anything could happen.
I have closed my EURGBP short here as I think it is due to bounce off  this 0.86 level which is a biggie and I will look to sell more on rallies.
The pound is due to catch up EUR and looks heavy but need to wait for GDP numbers.  Because I am not sure what the dollar will do today I think GBPCHF or EURGBP might be a better way to play the GDP numbers if the market sells sterling off afterwards.
I did not expect to see AUDUSD back below 92 with three black crows on the daily but if equities rally so will AUD so it is a hard sell and I will pass.   EURAUD has formed a good tweezer bottom and this pair is a big driver of AUD.

CRUDE has broken up through a trend-line from the April highs and has a daily hammer, so it might be a good buy if equities rally today, although I am medium term bearish.
This might be a quiet day for me and I will wait to see how the weekly candles close.

USDCAD stopped out (-1R)
EURGBP closed 25% balance 86.15 (+2.5R)
GBPCHF short 1.6570 stop 1.6620 target 1.64 - post UK GDP
EURUSD short 1.3330 stop 1.3350 - addition, post IMF announcement
CRUDE Jun short 83.50 stop 83.80 PT 82.50
CABLE short1.5325 stop 1.5355 PT 1.5125
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD closed 1.330 (+1.5R) - bull flag and indices rising
CABLE stopped out (-1R)
GOLD short1156 stop 1160 off 127 fib extension counter-trend
BRENT crude short 86.75 stop 87.10 PT 84.25 / 83.25
BRENT stopped out (-1R) ouch
EURUSD short 1.3390 stop 1.3410 - 61fib and descending trendline
GBPCHF closed  @1.6460 (+2.2R)

Open trades:
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1/4
EURUSD short 1.3390 stop 1.3410
GOLD short1156 stop 1160


  1. duuhh,,,
    so we have greek issue almost sorted except the fact that slave culture is still instact and Rich still rules the poor or smart one's always ride the dumb one's. Greek's will work forever now to pay high taxes, earn low income, have less flexibility in economy etc etc

    News on EG is, if bailout is happpening which we knows it is, there is a need for plenty of EURO's , 30-40B apprx. So I suggest not going short on EG if not long at all until the mess is sorted.


  2. Yeah good point Ams.
    Im busy kicking myself for not buying USDJPY here. I keep thinking that there will be a correction in equities and then I will buy and of course we know how that scenario goes ... sigh.

  3. tell me about it..
    market seems to be doing just the stop hunt..I see market being very bullish..nothing is stopping equities going up and I know why. Unless fed gives a signal they are ready to raise the rates. No one wants to give the opportunity to make money with all the free money available by fed at all time low discount rates. So start looking for correction when fed has signal'd or perhaps rate hike'd. 91.7 was a good point but too risky considering economic outlook. Time to look at gold 1130 level...look at eg...someone is covering their shorts and someone is buying alongside a good picture :-)

  4. I just shorted cable, its looking very bearish now, I thought that this kind of 5380 level would hold but its not.
    I just can't buy EUR V anything hehe ...

  5. US home sales ... Coming in at 411k compared to median forecast of 330k (up 26.9%). Largest rise since April 1963. Go figure

  6. don't see anything stopping S&P reaching 1222 where we might have to retrace, it a strong resistance.

    Cable looks toppy but it all depends on what's dollar doing it hasn't gobe down much considering dollar and EG has rocketed.

    Let's see.

  7. Agree about S+P, why go all this way up and not hit the fib level.

  8. Nic, for S&P momentum keep an eye on this:
    as long as that remains bullish she keeps going up - just no one wants to join the part late but there have been no real signs of distribution at the top?? It's still a buy I guess?

  9. Thanks GW
    Good to see you here!