Friday, July 31, 2009

Friday 31 July


GBPUSD stopped out (-1%)
Crude short 66.75, stop 67.35, addition
EURGBP closed 85.29(+0.5%) LH
USDCHF stopped out (-1%)
USDCAD long 1.0792, stop 1,0742 addition
Crude banked 50% @3xR 64.95 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY short 157.64, stop 157.90
Dollar is not looking good so closing long dollar positions:
EURUSD closed 1.4160 (+1.0%)
NZDUSD closed 0.6568 (+0.84%)
USDCAD addition closed 1.0820 (+0.56%)
USDCAD closed balance 1.0820 (+1.71%)
CRUDE balance closed 67.05 (-0.25%)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY short 95.275, stop 95.555, target 94.70
dbl top & 1hr marabuzo retrace

+2.86% for the day
+12.66% for the week

Dollar index has broken support and at new low for the year. Thanks Mr B for making me see sense re the USD before I lost my shirt. I was going the wrong direction. Daily chart:

Almost time for the weekend and get some sand between my toes ...
Yes. I have big feet. And yet they still fit in my mouth.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Thursday July 30

Open trades:
Crude short 68.76, stop 67.00
USDCAD long 1.07733, stop 1.07745
NZDUSD short 0.6610 stop 0.6635
EURUSD short 1.4220, stop 1.4250

AUDJPY & AUDUSD stopped out (-2%)
Cable stopped out balance (+0.5%)
GBPJPY stopped out balance (-0.5%)
EURGBP short 0.8549, stop 0.8589, break of daily candle
EURJPY stopped out balance (-0.5%)
USDCHF long 1.0874, stop 1.0838, target 1.0150
Crude stopped out 25% @63.76 (+4.8%)
Cable short 1.6500, stop 1.6530, target 1.6300, 4hr SS
Crude short 64.55, stop 64.95 - addition @ daily 50fib
NZDUSD short 0.65155, stop 0.65415 - addition
Stopped out of crude addition (-1%)
Stopped out of NZDUSD addition - treasury news jump (-1%)

This chop is tiring. +0.3% for the day.
Still short crude, EURUSD, NZDUSD, Cable, EURGBP. Long USDCAD.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Indices ... megaphone tops?

Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (Megaphone Chart Pattern)
A Megaphone Top also known as a Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend.
A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation. Its shape is opposite to that of a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance in a stock price and can last several weeks or even a few months.
A Megaphone Top is formed because the stock makes a series of higher highs and lower lows. The Megaphone Top usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The signal that the pattern is complete occurs when prices fall below the lower low.

Hey Mr Big

Obviously the secret to PT Jones's success was what he surrounded himself with. Check out the picture to the right of his head ...

Wednesday 30 July

Crude inventories today. I am now in a lot of positions, I will only be looking to add to them or maybe some commodities.

Open trades, now all half positions:
Crude short 68.76, stop 68.96, target 65.00
GBPJPY short 156.30, stop 156.64
USDCAD long 1.07733, stop 1.07745
NZDUSD short 0.6610 stop 0.6635
EURUSD short 1.4220, stop 1.4250
GBPUSD short 1.6450, stop 1.6480
EURJPY short 134.20, stop 134.50
EURJPY banked 50% @ 3xR 133.30 (+1.5%)
EURUSD banked 50% @ 3xR 1.4130 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD banked 50% @ 3xR 1.6360 (+1.5%)
NZDUSD banked 50% @ 3xR 0.6535 (+1.5%)
AUDJPY short 77.45, stop 78.05, target 76.00
USDJPY short 94.95, stop 95.15, target 91.50
AUDUSD short 0.8171, stop 0.8221, target 79.00 ish
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

I am Robo-Trader

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Tuesday 29 July

I got the direction wrong last night ... USDCAD has made new lows, AUDUSD has broken out of its range, and the others could follow.
Dollar index has broken support and made a new low.
US equities have not rallied (yet) so that correlation is not working but they may well follow the money.

USDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5%)
Crude stopped out of balance (+0.5%)
GBPJPY stopped out balance (-0.5%)
EURUSD stopped out balance of Friday trade (-0.5%)
NZDUSD stopped out Friday trade (-1%)
Never never never give up.

Crude short 68.76, stop 68.96, target 65.00, dbl top
GBPJPY short 156.30, stop 156.64, DIBS
USDCAD long 1.07733, stop 1.07745
NZDUSD short 0.6610 stop 0.6635
Crude 50% banked @3xR 68.06 (+1.5%)
USDCAD long 1.0795, stop 1.0780 (addition)
EURUSD short 1.4220, stop 1.4250 DIBS (cats ears formation)
USDCAD banked 50% of 1st trade @3xR 1.0857 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 155.28 (+1.5%)
USDCAD banked 50% of addition @ 1.0840 (+1.5%)
USDCAD banked balance of addition @1.0840 (+1.5%)

Still short half positions Crude, GBPJPY & short full positions EURUSD & NZDUSD. Long half position USDCAD.
For the day +5.5%

Late additions:
GBPUSD short 1.6450, stop 1.6480, target 1.6330
EURJPY short 134.20, stop 134.50, target 132.00

Monday, July 27, 2009

Monday 26 July

Starting weekly breakout strategy ... Two new trades:
GBPJPY short 155.30, stop 156.05 (4hr candle break)- addition
EURJPY short 134.30, stop 135.05 (4hr candle break)- addition

I saw USDCAD had spiked at market open and was just sitting there so I banked half..

USDCAD - banked half @ 6xR 1.1120 (+3%)
EURJPY & GBPJPY stopped out of additions (-2.0%)
Cable stopped out of Fridays trade (-1%)
EURJPY stopped out of balance of Fridays trade (-0.5%)
Cable short 1.6470, stop 1.6495, 50% retrace of 1hr marabuzo
Crude short 68.68, stop 68.98
Cable stopped out (-1%)
Cable short 1.6496, stop 1.6518, 1st target 1.6385
GBPCHF stopped on balance of fridays trade 1.7654 (+0.5%)
Crude banked 50% @3xR 67.78 (+1.5%)
EURJPY short 135.51, stop 135.79, target 133.50 (1/2 pos)
GBPJPY short 156.95, stop 1.5735, target 155.00 (1/2 pos)
Cable stopped out (-1%)
EURJPY stopped out (-0.5%)

Total for day -1%

Sunday, July 26, 2009


12 inside bars on the daily ...

EURUSD. Still drifting higher in tight range 1.3850-1.42. Weekly is stuck below resistance. Daily inside bar following a large bearish engulfing candle and long wicks at the top of the range suggest start of bearish cycle. A break to the upside suggests 1.47 and then 1.50.

USDCHF. Short term bullish but up against resistance. Stuck in tight range 1.06-1.09, the lower section of a larger consolidation range. Daily broke uptrending support line, and has now pulled up to re-test trendline from below. Weekly candle is a weak hammer and daily is a higher swing low. Short term bullish but up against resistance. Break of support at 1.06 would target 1.04 / 1.0355

GBPUSD. Weekly neutral candle with long wick, consolidating below resistance, in long term bullish flag patterb. Daily is bearish and a possible lower swing high but is sitting on support at 1.6425 and 38.2 fib and a break below key support at 1.6310 would confirm up cycle completed.

EURGBP. Weekly in bearish ascending wedge/flag pattern, but daily is bullish marabuzo - BUOB. Looking to long following clean break of 87. Break of uptrending support line or support level at 8576 gets me short.

AUDUSD. Weekly bullish but long wick below resistance at top of range, daily is IB after three daily doji's the last one a bearish engulfing candle which is still in play. Break of the ascending support line or 80.84 signals uptrend completed. I'm short term bearish, long term bullish.

NZDUSD. Very similar to AUDUSD with daily IB within a bearish outside bar. I am short looking for Thursdays break of uptrending support line or clean break of 65 level.

USDCAD. Weekly bearish but has bounced at double bottom at 1.0780 level. Daily is a bullish hammer on one of my charts and neutral with a long tail on my other one.
I am tentatively long off dbl bottom, but longer term this pair is bearish, the drop to the level was a grinder, not an exhaustion spike and a break of this support level targets 1.06 next.

GBPCHF. Weekly is a second doji in a row, daily is almost a bearish inside bar. Support at weekly 1.75 level has held and needs to break this level for me to continue short.

USDJPY. Is out of step with other JPY pairs. Last weeks weekly inside bar broke long following higher swing low but this week is a doji. Daily inside bar is very small within large bullish marabuzo but is held below strong resistance at 95.30 Daily HH's and HL's suggest upcycle continues.

GBPJPY. Weekly higher low in place, the inside bar broke up last week is followed by doji off strong resistance. Daily inside bar within large bullish marabuzo is held below strong resistance & 38.2 fib. I am short, short term bearish, looking for a continuation lower and another lower high to confirm downtrend but a bullish continuation in equities and a break of this level and the daily descending trendline could mean some big moves and I will be long very fast ...

EURJPY & CHFJPY. Weekly made higher low, and last weeks inside bar broke long to form a neutral continuation bar. Long wick suggests srton resistance. Daily is inside bar within bullish marabuzo but off a strong resistance & fib level. I am short looking for resistance to hold and a LH but as with GBPJPY, a break of resistance and I would be long.

CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY. All three of these pairs broke up through descending resistance lines last week and look bullish. Long wicks Thursday followed by inside bars Friday suggest a pullback to retest the resistance lines from the upside. What happens there will determine if the uptrend continues. The equities will be key.

Dollar Index. Weekly bearish but sitting above the 61.8 fib level and key support. Has not breached low of 01 June at 78.375 and an inside bar Friday followed Thursdays doji. Possibility of a double bottom bounce in a long term bearish pattern.

Gold. Two bullish weeks mane confirmed HL after a LH so on the weekly and daily Gold is coiling up and range is tightening on weekly chart. Daily weak shooting star Thursday followed by inside bar is short term bearish. The break above 950 level and 6-week high Thursday was key for me and I would buy a re-test of that level or sell a break below it. The direction the USD takes is key driver.

Silver. Weekly continued bullish confirming HL and uptrend continues. Friday bullish candle broke the tail of Thursdays weak shooting star (pin). Price broke down through uptrending daily support line and then right back up through it again. I am bullish, targeting 14.500 area / fib level and looking for price action there.

Crude. Crude weekly continued north for second week and HL in place. End of the week broke up through resistance at 66.00 and now at key resistance at 68.00
The direction of the USD and equities on Monday will be key to direction from here but break of the 61.8 fib retracement suggests more up from here.

S&P and indices. Weekly and dailies all bullish. Only the Nasdaq had a small down day Friday. FTSE and Dax broke up through key resistance levels. This market has to consolidate or pullback at some point but no sign in the charts of it happening yet.

Will look at commodities tonight.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Friday 24 July

Today is also a Gann pivot day and for a number of reasons the end of this week is showing up as a time when the market could make a big cycle turn. Will only know when we look back a few weeks from now ...

Added more shorts before bed:
GBPUSD short 1.6494, stop 1.6524, first target 1.6325
AUDUSD short 81.38, stop 81.51, first target 80.00
Still running from end of NY session:
Crude short 66.90, stop 67.50, first target 65.85
EURUSD short 1.4260, stop 1.4310, first target 1.4160
GBPJPY short 157.20, stop 1.5765, descending daily trendline ...
EURJPY short 135.15, stop 135.65, descending daily trendline ...
NZDUSD short 65.55, stop 66.25
EURUSD banked 50% @ 1.4160 (+1.0%)
EURJPY banked 50% @133.95 (+1.5%)
AUDUSD & Cable stopped out (-2%)
Crude stopped out (-1%)
GBPCHF short 1.7684, stop 1.7714 - cheeky news trade
Cable short 1.6470, stop 1.6510 - cheeky news trade
GBPJPY banked 50% @ 3xR 155.85 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF banked 50% @ 3xR 1.7594 (+1.5%)
Crude short 67.15, stop 67.65 (off dip of daily M pattern)
USDCAD long 1.0820, stop 1.0770 (daily dbl bottom)
Stopped out of crude (-1.0%)

Holding EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD, GBPCHF short and USDCAD long over the weekend.
Total for the day +1.5%
Total for the week +8.38%

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Mr Big

I drive Mr Big crazy. I don't mean to. Here is something for his blood pressure.

This is what Mr Big would like me to be:

Thursday 23 July

Try again ...

EURUSD short 1.4240, stop 1.4270, hourly pin, TP 1.4150 & 1.40
Crude short 65.40, stop 65.75, target 64.00 addition
NZDUSD short 65.96, stop 66. 18, hourly IB, target 64.50
CHFJPY short 88.18, stop 88.50. (is an but IB decided to wait for pin tail to go)
USDJPY short 94.30, stop 94.55, hourly BEOB
I want to short the indices, I'm selling USDJPY instead.

CHFJPY & USDJPY stopped out (-2.0%)
Crude Stopped out todays trade @65.0o (+1.14%)
EURUSD Stopped out 1.4210 (+0.5%)
NZDUSD Stopped out 65.74 (+0.5%)
Crude Stopped balance of Tues trade 65.00 (+1.43%)
Cocoa stopped out balance 2847 (+1.0%)

I am out of a lot of trades early today. The US markets always reverse the London moves and this chop is becoming a bit predictable for me. I will wait and see how the dust settles but if the dollar breaks support and the indices break resistance then my bias is wrong (again). All flat.

Crude short 66.90, stop 67.50, first target 65.85
EURUSD short 1.4260, stop 1.4310, first target 1.4160
GBPJPY short 157.20, stop 1.5765, descending daily trendline ...
EURJPY short 135.15, stop 135.65, descending daily trendline ...
NZDUSD short 65.55, stop 66.25 (trying again)

Finally some divergence love from eurodollar and kiwidollar. EURUSD is closing as a bearish engulfing candle.
Total for the day +2.57%

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Wednesday 23 July

Today is the new moon and a Gann pivot day. Here is hoping:)
Crude inventories and big GBP news too.

GBPCHF short 1.7510, stop 1.7535, targets 1.7375, 1.7110
NZDUSD short 0.6550, stop 0.6600, targets 0.6430, 0.6200
Cable, stopped out balance yesterdays trade 1.6420 (+1.0%)
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
Crude short 64.90, stop 65.10 - addition
Cable short 1.6420, stop 1.6450 - again :(
Crude banked 50% of todays short @ 3xR $64.00 (+1.5%)
Cocoa banked 50% @ 3xR 2,787 (+1.5%)
Crude stopped out of balance of todays trade (-0.5%)
Cable stopped out (-1%)
NZDUSD stopped out (-1%)
GBPJPY stopped balance of yesterdays trade 154.35 (+1%)

Great divergence on the NZDUSD daily and hourly charts ... did not work today ...
My first real money commodity trade going OK.
+1.5% for the day

I feel like shit today. I feel like I have been in the washing machine on the heavy duty cycle, really churned around.
I give in, I concede defeat, the recession is over, equities are going to the moon and the last year was just a bad dream. House prices are about to rebound massively so hurry up and buy another one and don't worry about the unemployment, that was all a bad dream too, and any day now everyone will be out spending again. Because a select few banks (not all) made money with free government money and massive risk means we are all going to be alright!!
The fact that I am even thinking this or that I should buy the S&P on dips now means the top must really be in, the last of the lemmings are on board ... Tomorrow it will die ...

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Tuesday 21 July

I'm looking to buy some USD today, but which pair ...? Some of these 1hr charts look like H&S (don't hate the messenger, hate the pattern!) GBP news will help

GBPJPY banked 50% @ 3xR 154.60 (+1.5%)
Cable short 1.6465, stop 1.6505, target 1.638, then 1.6190
USDJPY & CADJPY stopped out (-2%)
Cable banked 50% @ 1.639 (+0.95%) - 4hr trendline & 61.8fib
Crude - stopped out of yesterdays trade.(-1%)
GBPJPY banked balance at 155.03 (+0.96%) - indices up, 4hr pin and 50fib
Cable banked balance 1.6435 (+0.38%) 4hr pin and 50fib

USDCAD short 1.0995, stop 1.1025, break of prev low, target 1.09
USDCAD closed 1.0970 (+0.84%)

S&P has bounced hard off prev high. I closed USDCAD and I am going to try again to buy USD and short crude and maybe some cocoa. Will hold these trades as long as S&P keeps consolidating.

GBPUSD short 1.6470, stop 1.6495
Short GBPJPY 154.85, stop 155.35
Cocoa short 2,877, stop 2,907
Crude short 66.00, stop 66.70

GBPJPY banked 50% at 3xR 153.35 (+1.5%)
Cable banked 50% at 3xR 1.6395 (+1.5%)
Crude banked 50% at 2xR 64.60 (+1%)

Banked some crude early as pullbacks are on.
Still short Cocoa and half position GBPJPY, cable & crude.

I did a lot of trading today. I am going to take a look at why.
For the day +4.63%

Monday, July 20, 2009

Monday 20 July

Short EURUSD 1.4165, stop 1.4190, first target 1.40
Short Crude 64.98, stop 65.58, targets 62.00, 60.00
Stopped out of EURUSD (-1%)
Stopped out of Crude (-1%)

USDCAD short 1.1058, stop 1.1076, (half stake)
CADJPY long 85.59, stop 85.29, (4hr entry, half stake)
Stopped out both CAD trades break even. Put stops to breakeven for CAD news.

Crude short (again) 65.10, stop 65.90, target 64.00, 63.20
GBPJPY short 155.80, stop 156.20, nice hourly LH, target 152+
PM trade:
CADJPY short 84.94, stop 85.21, 1st target 83.50
USDJPY short 94.05, stop 94.20, 1st target 91.77

Total for day -2%

Sunday, July 19, 2009


Hello Big ...
On my way back home doing some chart analysis ...

EURUSD. Drifting higher in tight range 1.3850-1.42. Possible HL in place but daily IB formed at top of range/channel off 1.42 level which could be strong resistance. Hard to call until it breaks range but a break to the upside suggests 1.50

USDCHF. Stuck in tight range 1.06-1.09 Poss LH in place for short. Broke last weeks low of 1.0750 and found resistance off the underside off 1.08 level. Shorts favoured with target of 1.06 and 1.04 if it can break support.

GBPUSD. Weekly neutral in mid range. Daily bounced off 38.2 fib and 1.6450 level and underside of previous uptrending support line from 18Jun-02Jul. Short term cycle is bearish or sideways within a medium term bullish flag pattern. A rally above Thursdays high at 1.6480 indicates a retest of high at 1.6743. Break below 1.6082 support indicates a retest of support at 1.5801.

EURGBP. Weekly and daily in bearish ascending wedge/flag pattern, but bigger picture indicates consolidation in longer term uptrend. Daily pushed higher but failed to hold level above resistance at 8660 level (prev swing low). Short term pattern is sideways and drifting higher. Looking to long following clean break of 87. Break of uptrending support line or support level at 8576 gets me short.

AUDUSD. Weekly bullish engulfing, daily is IB off resistance at top of downtrending resistance level in range/channel. A second close above the 80 level is bullish but could pullback before continuing higher or remain in bullflag/channel.

NZDUSD. Weekly bullish engulfing, daily is IB off resistance at top of downtrending resistance level in range/channel. I'm watching for AUD and NZD to break the top of these ranges, otherwise they will just retreat within the ranges.

USDCAD. Weekly massive bearish marabuzo, daily second IB at 1.11 level but this level is not a big historical support level. Ib's need to break for direction in this pair for me but could consolidate sideways for a while longer.

GBPCHF. Weekly is a doji after a pullback in a strong uptrend. Daily is bearish but tail suggests it has found support of key weekly 1.75 level. Hammer off that level from 13 July is still in play but LH and LL on daily suggest more downside correction and sterling weakness. Daily close below 1.75 would confirm.

USDJPY. Weekly inside bar has retraced 50% of prev weeks bearish marabuzo. Daily is second IB after pullback in downtrend and resistance at 94.50 weekly level. Great resistance at 50% levels! Daily is making LH & LL, tempts me to sell rallies and this looks like one ...

GBPJPY. Weekly IB after pullback in strong uptrend closed at 61.8 fib level of prev weeks bearish marabuzo. Daily is second hammer, indicating long however daily is making LH and LL indicating sterling weakness and downwards correction is possibly not complete. Strong resistance at fib levels. Mixed signals, I am neutral leaning towards bearish and expect sideways consolidation or drift back to 1.50 level.

EURJPY. Weekly inside bar in downward correction from longer term uptrend. Daily is second hammer like doji. Approaching resistance at 38.2% fib level and underside of prev ascending support line. Candles look bullish but LH and LL on daily give mixed signal. I am neutral leaning towards bearish.

CHFJPY Same as EURJPY. I am neutral

CADJPY. Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily double IB's at 84.50/85.00 resistance and underside of daily ascending trendline. If this pair is going to rollback to the downside this is where it will do it ... however a daily higher high and the bounce off the weekly 50%fib level suggests this pair is still bullish. No long until a break of 85. Failure at 85 says back to 82 for support.

AUDJPY. Weekly sideways (almost an IB) after pullback in uptrend, daily double hammer inside bars suggest bullish but LH and LL on daily and resistance off fib level and previous ascending trendline give mixed signals. I am neutral tending towards bearish.

Dollar Index. Weekly bearish, daily doji / spinner. USD this week has broken key support at 80 & 79.60 level and on its way to retest double bottom 78.80 levels. A pullback up to test resistance now off the 80 level is possible before continuation downwards.

Gold. Weekly bullish in sideways consolidation, daily - Thursdays inside bar broke to the downside and then pulled back up to form a dragonfly doji. Daily has not managed to take out previous swing high and has made lower lows. Until 950 level is broken I am neutral. Weak dollar should mean stronger gold prices.

Silver. Weekly bullish after 5 bearish weeks of pullback in long term uptrend. Daily bullish engulfing. Daily has bounced off 50% fib level after strong correction but remains bearish. Daily ascending trendline has been broken and is about to be retested from below which could give clearer indication of which way ...

Crude. Crude rose end of last week into contract expiration after 4 weeks of downtrend. Weekly sideways bullish, daily bullish continuation stopped 65 level but may continue to test resistance at 66 and 68. I'm looking for a pullback down.

S&P and indices. Weekly massive bullish engulfing. Friday daily inside bar following resistance at 940 level. Has not broken the head level on H&S so still in range with strong overhead resist at 950 ish. A massive rally off the neckline of the H&S might have been stops from those wrongly positioned short, I have noticed pattern failures often produce strong moves.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Friday 17 July

A few hours trading before a weekend away ...

GBPJPY short, 1.5320, stop 1.5365 hrly IB, 1st target 151, second target 147
Correction, stopped out (-1%)

Total for the day -1%
For the week +12.62%

Bring on the weekend.

Happy Day

I sold my house in Toronto tonight, selling property in Canada is very straightforward compared to UK and you basically exchange contracts and a deposit when you make/accept an offer and the agreement is irrevocable.
Anyhow after 7 days on the market I got full asking price.
Property in Toronto is RED HOT and there is no sign of recession here.
A nice couple from UK bought it, I hope they love my little house by the lake as much as I did, we are closing and they are moving in three weeks!

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Thursday 16 July

GBPJPY short 153.57, stop 154.27 1hr BEOB (Targets 152.15, 151.05, 146.80)
US crude short 62.30, stop 62.90 (1st target 61.00, poss 58.50)

GBPJPY stopped out (-1%)
Crude went 90 pips my way and then reversed ... (-1%)

Have to spend the rest of the day in town, no more new trades.

Total for day -2%


Ok Mr Big ...
Just to prove I actually have a plan ... from now on I will include profit targets when I enter trades.
A (brief) summary of my rules are:

All trades are 1% risk unless I use a lower stake, which I will state at the time of entry.
My goal is to trade daily trade setups on 4hr/1hr timeframes for better risk/reward.
I will bank half of daily trades at 3:1 unless I say so otherwise at the outset.
I will not enter trades where my expectation is less than 2:1
I will state targets for the balance of the trade at the time I enter them.
I will re-assess dibs trades at EOD in the light of the daily candle close if the trend looks like it might continue.
I will not move stops to breakeven, I will take profit to pay for my stops.
For longer term trades I will move my stops above hrly / 4hrly swing high / lows.
I will prepare for retracements and ride them out, Braveheart style :)
I will not chase the market, if I miss my entry I will leave it.
I won't always get it right but I will always keep trying.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Wednesday 15 July

Crude inventories today. Still short crude but nat gas looks like a buy ...

USDCHF short 1.0860, stop 1.0883 hourly bearish engulfing
AUDUSD long 79.50 stop 79.20, 4hr IB
Crude short 60.34, stop 60.70, hourly bearish engulfing

Banked half of USDCHF @ 3XR 1.0788 (+1.5%)
Banked balance of USDCHF @ 1.0760 (+2.17%)
Stopped out of crude, yesterdays trade (+ 0.5%)
Stopped out of crude, todays trade (-1%)
Banked all of AUDUSD @ 80.17 (+3.35%)
Banked balance of 02Jul crude short at 60.40 after bullish inventories (+7.0%)

I closed Aussie early. Big daily trendline and double top. I will look for another entry another day.
Crude is no longer looking so bearish. A close above 61.50 and we could go up to 65.00

No open positions.
Total for day +13.52%

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Tuesday 14 July, bad discipline day

Cable long 1.6260, stop 1.6245 DIB's (1/2 posn)
AUDUSD long 78.60, stop 78.40 DIB's
GBPJPY long 151.75, stop 151.40, break of resistance (1/2 posn)
Stopped out of all trades (-2.0%) , These early morning spikes are crap.

Cable short 1.6305, stop 1.6320
GBPJPY short 151.77, stop 152.02
Out of these breakeven, not in the mood for more losses.

AUDUSD long, 0.7903, stop 79.53.
Stopped this BE and going to wait for better entry.
Not interested in a third loss today ...

Short crude 61.25, stop 61.50
Banked half of crude @3xR 60.50 (+1.5%)

I'm stopping for the day. I broke some rules getting out at breakeven. I will let crude do its thing ...

Open Positions:
Crude short ½ posn 68.90
Crude short ½ posn 61.25

Total for day -0.5%

Rules ...
I stop trading if I get three losses in a row or go 3% down, it's a rule I have never broken. Today I started to stop trades at breakeven to avoid getting to three losses in a row. And so I broke the rule about not stopping out at BE. Breaking one to avoid breaking another isn't the way I want to go. These rules are what will get me through the bad times.
Clean slate tomorrow.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Monday July 13th

Bugger ... everything has taken off overnight. Thanks MrBig for making me hold positions but I wish it would take a breather now so we can get more on ...

Short AUDUSD 77.20, stop 77.45
Short AUDJPY 70.98, stop 71.28
Cable banked 50% at 3R, 1.6034 (+1.5%) - Friday's trade
Stopped out of crude BE - Fridays trade
Stopped out of Aussies (-2%)
Short crude 60.30, stop 60.80
Short AUDUSD 77.64, stop 77.80 half posn
Short AUDJPY 71.65, stop 72.05 half posn
Banked 50% crude @ 3xR 58.92 (+1.5%)
Banked balance of EJ @129.00 (+1.3%) - Friday's trade
Stopped out of both aussies again (-1%)
Stopped out of balance of Fridays cable trade BE
Banked balance of crude (todays trade) @59.00 (+1.3%)
Stopped out of balance of GBPJPY at BE

Open Positions:
Crude short ½ posn 68.90

Total for the day +2.6%

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Sunday 12 July

As the week starts I'm looking for rallies and price action to short the indices, AUD, NZD and XXXJPY crosses. Will watch the dollar index for direction with USD crosses. I'm still bearish crude and metals.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Friday 10 July

Dollar index is well supported and made a 4hr pin off the 80 level last night. It is coming up on the 50% fib of yesterdays move but it looks like a base is in on the USD.
No trades yet, looking for short EURUSD or long USDCHF and XXXJPY shorts.

EURJPY short 129.65, stop 130.15
Crude short 59.99, stop 60.44
GBPJPY short 150.90, stop 151.58
USDCHF long 1.0897, stop 1.0875
Cable short 1.6184, stop 1.6234

EURJPY banked 50% @3xR 128.15 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 148.86 (+1.5%)
Stopped out USDCHF (-1%)

I am going to hold long USD & JPY and short crude over the weekend.

Open Positions:
Crude short ½ posn 68.90
Crude short 1 posn 59.99
Cable short 1 posn 1.6184
GBPJPY short ½ posn 150.90
EURJPY short ½ posn 129.65

Total for day +2%
For the week +22.81%

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Thursday 09 July

Short cable 1.6152, stop 1.6182
Short Crude 61.00, stop 61.56
Short GBPJPY 150.72, stop 151.22

Stopped out of all (-3%), limit down
Crude spiked up and then tanked :(

Open positions:1/2 posn crude short (68.90, currently +6.84% )

Balance for day -3%

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Wednesday 08 July

Short AUDJPY 73.98, stop 74.33, hourly IB (half position)
Short AUDUSD 78.48, stop 78.78, hourly IB (half position)
Short EURUSD 1.3873, stop 1.3903, break of level of prev low
Stopped out EURUSD, AUDUSD & AUDJPY (-2%)
Nothing like an early morning fakeout to get you in the mood for the day ...

Short S&P futs 880, stop 883.50
Short crude 62.60, stop 63.10 addition

Banked 50% of yesterday's crude trade @3xR 62.38 (+1.5%)
Banked 50% of today's crude trade @3xR 61.10 (+1.5%)
Banked 50% of S&P futs short @3xR 869.50 (+1.5%)
Banked balance of todays crude trade @ 60.14 (+2.46%)
Stopped out balance of GBPJPY @148.66 (+5.63%)
Stopped out balance of Cable @ 1.6066 (+2.11%)
Banked balance of 2nd crude trade @ 60.40 (+2.12%)
Stopped out balance of S&P @ entry (-0.5%)

Open positions:
1/2 posn crude short (68.90)

For the day +14.32%

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Tuesday 07 July

Stopped out of last nights GBPJPY short at 0500 (-1.0%)
(went to the pip and reversed) Still short cable and crude.

Short GBPJPY 154.85, stop 155.40
Short Crude 64.00, stop 64.85
Short USDJPY 94.98, stop 95.23

Stopped out USDJPY (-1%)
Banked half of GBPJPY @3xR 153.20 (+1.5%)

I was hoping to short the rally in indices this morning but ODL indices still not working and I missed it.
Still holding 1&1/2 positions crude short, 1/2 posn GBPJPY short and 1/2 posn cable short.

For the day +0.5%

Monday, July 6, 2009

Monday 06 July

Short GBPUSD, 1.6277, stop 1.6327, hourly pin
Long USDCHF 1.0880, stop 1.0850

Banked half of GBPJPY @3xR 1.5536 (+1.5%)
Banked half of GPBUSD @3xR 1.6130 (+1.5%)
Banked balance of GBPJPY @1.5350 (+5.19%)

Stopped out USDCHF -1R (-1%)
(I am not sure I managed this trade very well, but I stuck to my rules)

6PM Short GBPJPY 1.5508, stop 1.5535

For the day +8.19%

Sunday 05 July PM

8PM Short GBPJPY 156.20, stop 1.5646, hourly IB

Friday, July 3, 2009

Friday 03 July

No new trades today yet.
Still running AUDUSD, GBPJPY and crude. Aussie looks dodgy, the others are fine.

4:20 short EURUSD, 1.3990, stop 1.4030 TP .... the bottom

7:40 Closed AUDUSD 79.78, +1.02R (+1.02%)
08:30 Closed GBPJPY 1.5665 +4.02R Z(+4.02%)
Closed EURUSD 1.4002 -0.3R (-0.3%)

Closed EURUSD so I could be done for the weekend. No momentum, no liquidity, should not have taken trade.
Only holding crude short for weekend.
Ooops ... and EURCAD long

+5.1% today
+20.14% for the week thanks to a big NFP

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Thursday 02 July

NFP Today ...

02:00 Short GBPJPY at 158.90, stop 159.18 from 5AM IB
02:51 Short AUDUSD at 80.29, stop 80.54, last hourly IB
03:00 Short Cable, 1.6425, stop 1.6455
03:50 Long USDCAD, 1.1503, stop 1.1473
04:00 Short crude at 68.90, stop 69.55, break of level

04:15 Banked 50% cable @ 3R 1.6335 (+1.5%)
Banked 50% GBPJPY @ 3R 1.5806 (+1.5%)
Banked 50% crude @ 3xR 67.35 +1.5R (+1.5%)
Banked 50% AUDUSD @ 3XR 79.54 +1.5R (+1.5%)
Banked 50% USDCAD @3R 1.1593 +1.5R (+1.5%)

Late ... after triple top / triple bottom ...
Closed balance of USDCAD @1.16 +1.61R (+1.61%)
Closed balance of cable @ 1.6355 +1.67R (+1.67%)

Going to hold AUDUSD, crude and GBPJPY and ride the retraces. Need 80 (79.90) to hold as resistance in AUDUSD.
Looking for short entry EURUSD or long USDCHF tomorrow and maybe Cable to see if it can break the support at 1.6320

Balance for the day + 10.78%

If I don't blow it tomorrow then an up week after two down weeks ...

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Wednesday 01 July

Happy Canada Day ...

Short GBPCHF, 1.7995, stop 1.7835 hourly IB
GBPCHF topped and tailed, -1R (-1.0%)
Price went to my exact stop and reversed

Short Crude 70.75, stop 71.35
07:10 Stopped out of crude. Price went to my exact stop and reversed. This is the story of my day. -1R (-1.0%)

10.45 Long cable 1.6480, stop 1.6465
Closed half of cable at 3R 1.6525 +1.5R (1.5%)
Stopped out of balance of cable BE

12:30 Short crude 69.50, stop 69.80, broke 4hr ascending trendline & 61fib and retested from other side
13:45 Banked half crude at 3R, 68.60 +1.5R (+1.5%)
14:00 closed balance of crude at 69.25 +.83R (+.83%)

Total for day +1.83%