Tuesday, April 13, 2010

13 April, Turnaround Tuesday

The dollar index:
Has closed outside the ascending channel and unless the weekly closes back within the channel we are in for some further USD correction.  I would expect a dollar rally to test the trend line from underneath close the gap and then unless it has a major rally we are in for further correction.

I am waiting for EURUSD to close the gap and watching the 1140 level to buy gold.  The XXXJPY's still look like good shorts to me.

Update:  Medley report came out this morning saying SNB would accept EURCHF down to 1.40 so seems silly not to sell some

GBPJPY short 143.40 stop 1.4380 PT 139.70 / 138.50
EURCHF short 1.4365 stop 1.4385 PT 1.4050 - hourly shooting star
EURJPY short stopped out balance 126.30 (+0.5R)
AUDJPY short stopped out balance 86.05 (+0.5R)
NZDUSD short closed 50% @3R 0.7085 (+1.5R)
EURUSD short stopped out balance 1.3645 (+0.5R)
CRUDE short stopped out balance 84.00 (+3.5R)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD closed 1.00 BE- dollar weak
USDNOK closed 5.8600 (+0.6R)
NZDUSD closed 0.7100 (+1.25R)
GBPJPY long 143.60 stop 143.10 PT 144.80 / 146
USDJPY long 93.30 stop 93.10 target 95 - trend-line break

Open trades:
GBPCHF short 1.6370 stop 1.6405 - 1/2
EURCHF short 1.4365 stop 1.4385
GBPJPY long 143.60 stop 143.10
USDJPY long 93.30 stop 93.10

I am looking to cut and reverse on crude at 82.  61.8 fib retracement of last swing and rising trendline from Feb lows.  4hr chart:


  1. Oh snap... sorry for talking up the EURUSD... didnt realize you were short. I'll keep my mouth shut for awhile then. :) Looking pretty sticky at that 1.357.

    I found a place to geek out on fx charts btw... forexcharts.net.

    Any other good ones I should know about?

  2. nice going with crude Nic!!!

    I sold crude @ 8220 then added another lot on every 100 pip till 85. Had my tail between my legs for a while. Some breathing air now for me.


  3. I-Man, don't worry the EURUSD short was just a gap trade.
    AMS I put crude up, I am looking to get out at 82 and maybe buy there. If the trendline breaks I will take the loss and sell again, I think.

  4. You seeing that megaphone broadening formation on the EURUSD 15 and 30min?

    Points to 1.3635?

  5. You should download a metatrader account, it has the indices too. I will email you link.
    I can see the pattern on EURUSD but I am sticking with the bearish gartley playing out and 135 target for now ...
    I am often wrong!

  6. Ooohh... I gotta look up that gartley. And will do on the metatrader, thx.