Thursday, April 29, 2010

Thursday 29 April 2009

At the risk of feeling like Charlie Brown (who believed Lucy when she said she would hold the football for him to kick and then pulled it away every time) ... The indices have rolled over and we are in for a bigger correction.
We have broken trend-line support on almost every one and unless we have a spectacular rally that puts us back above them and makes it a false break then we are going down.  This happened in January when stocks fell right after earnings too.
Excuse the messy charts, I have a lot of fibs on them.

S&P cash:
Downside target projection 1112.75

FTSE futures
Downside target projection 5200

The recent past has shown that when the vix goes up and stocks go down that Gold has fallen.  I think the recent gold surge has been to do with Greece fears but if stocks continue down Gold will likely go down too.

EURUSD short 1.3220 stop 1.3255 PT 1.31 / 1.265
NZDUSD stopped out BE
GBPJPY stopped out (-1R) - house price news
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
EURAUD closed 1.4280 (+1.4R) - euro rallying
USDCAD short 1.0075 stop 1.010 PT 1.00 / 0.99
USDCAD closed 1.0012 - indices at resistance (+2.52R)
GOLD short 1165 stop 1170 PT 1150 / 1045
CRUDE short 84.70 stop 8510 PT 83.00
AUDUSD short 92.78 stop 92.93 PT 92.00 / 91.30 - descending daily trendline
EURUSD short 1.3240 stop 1.3280 PT 1.31 / 1.30
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
GOLD stopped out BE :(
CRUDE short 84.95 stop 85.45PT 83.00 - last try
CRUDE stopped out at close to the pip (-1R)
AUDUSD stopped out (-1R) - spiked out
EURUSD closed 1.3250 (-0.25R)

Open trades:
I closed EURUSD, it felt like a sitting duck asking for someone to come and get it.  The price action in the indices and AUD tonight makes it clear that Greece/Spain/Portugal are old news and its risk on.


  1. Hey Nic, with all the greece bailout news dominating the market looking for EU short around 336xx if failed there then perhaps 135. However, only looking to sell rallies now onwards unless this Europe mess is sorted. Reckon the rest of year :-). Currency /Bonds Market is very volatile as you have also mentioned about the vix.

  2. Thanks Ams. I tried the underside of the old daily trendline but stop too tight.
    Will wait for US now.

  3. Italian bond auction went well, euroland bond yields are coming back down a bit. Looks like a day of weak dollar and stocks claw back some gains. I think I will leave trying to short EUR for today and just listen out for those ratings agencies.

  4. 11:15 Greek statement, looking at EUR, looks like news was leaked ...

  5. I don't trust any market bullish move now apart from equities. I mean look at yesterday, all planned when to release the news. Fitch has no issues with countries but S&P has. Wonder who all has their fingers in the S&P pot apart from GS. Why it is wherever this bank is involved, it drains the life out of that instrument ? (I am now refering even sovereign as an instrument for these monster banks). Aparently their turnover is a lot more then entire GDP of PIGS. Seems some banks are too big. Obama is on the right path to divide and rule these suckers.

  6. smoke and mirrors ams, banks wont stop what makes them money, dosnt matter how many financial reform bills get passed they will just morph into another shape that sits in the grey area.

  7. Nic, can i ask what u are looking at 85 to short crude? I have res here at 84.82 with previous swing high at 85.61 and 88.6 fib at 85.11.

  8. ok tar, just wasnt sure what i was missing.

  9. thanks for the link Nic.

    Hey Bear, I honestly feel for inncocent families who are becoming target of these greedy suckers. I am working in canary wharf and yesterday saw an ordinary looking guy/banker in front of the atm machine he left his statement by mistake...he had 1.2 mil in his current account after withdrawing £200 :-)

    What a destiny, for some it's lifelong misery because of these greedy guys and for these guys, life's a big holiday. Not that they don't work hard but it's on expense of others.

    Ok, enough moaning.

    shorted EU @ 32600 sl 32900 (following Nic's lead) used ot have wide stops not anymore. Looking to go short on AU around 93 with 30-40 pips SL. Might hold my shorts on others as we have US GDP tom and that'll conclude next week. Also, UK election as well. I am expecting a big drop in cable on 6th or 7th when the result is out.

  10. ams, I agree with you completely. Probably why I was know as the anti-broker amongst my colleagues...Pushing a trade or investment vehicle that I personally wouldnt have invested in didnt sit right with me.

  11. I <3 David Rosenberg, from today - Ban the Bailout:

    "First we have governments bailing out banks (and auto companies and mortgage providers), homeowner debtors, and now we have governments bailing out governments. When does someone finally say — enough is enough!
    Look, Greece is not going to “fail”. They are going to default. There will be a debt restructuring. And there will be some recovery. Bondholders will take a haircut — why shouldn’t they? Why should Angela Merkel care if German banks own Greek bonds? Greece has been in default in its recent 200-year history almost half the time. So has most of Latin America come to think of it. What about Russia?"

  12. The bankers will reap what they have sown...

  13. Good one Bear!!
    I am not a Christ myself but not a butcher either.

    Hey Nic, I am not sure if these bailouts are designed to ride the donkeys or weak ones intentionally. Someone has definetly some interest in them. There is massive amount of money involved. Title for a book called, Slavery in modern days.

  14. btw, out of my EU short with mere 35 pips. Don't like what equities are doing. Making up for all the loses and still pound and EU can't move up infact anything accept crude..jeez

    Someting ain't rite..

  15. Don't blame you Ams. I am staring it down right now ... Plus if I close one more trade breakeven I am likely to get very rude email from Mr Big ...

  16. If like me, you love seeing blood on the streets and this stockmarket rally has you a bit depressed, go have a look at june natural gas...NGM0

  17. Natgas ... OMG
    Have you guys seen this website? Its the coolest tool for whats hot and whats not. Scroll down:

  18. I wish natgas and copper were a bit less expensive to trade

  19. i just trade the cfd´s, gave up on futures when they started mucking around with margin rates during the crisis. great site thanks nic

  20. haha, i was wondering when you were going to have another go at that short crude.

  21. gawd, this is a labour of love today.

  22. Bear, I had to walk away .. didn't want to watch.
    I think this is the biggest up day this year in SPX so last time I call a top.