Friday, April 9, 2010

Friday 09 April

Major currencies (dollar crosses) are testing their ranges this morning on dollar weakness and equities look set to open really strong following on yesterdays rally.  Cable is set to break weekly highs and above 1.5380 confirms a double bottom in place.  EURUSD is breaking out of its descending channel but I prefer to sell rallies in EURUSD.
It was pointed out yesterday that if all I did each day was to wait until the start of the US session and buy AUDUSD and close the trade 4 hours later I would make money four days out of five which is all about what US equities are doing.  It doesn't look like it is going to change anytime soon as US stocks are going up even on bad news days and worse than expected employment numbers.  Time for me to stop fighting it.

Gold had a very tight range yesterday (NR4) and looks set to break higher and test the inverted head and shoulders neckline at 1161.  However market looks to be shrugging off Greek worries and I would not be surprised to see some profit taking in Gold at that level.

CRUDE long 86.00 stop 85.50 target 87
GOLD long 1153.60 stop 1149.60 target 1161 (2010 high) neckline
GBPJPY short 1.44 stop 1.4435 target 1.4250
EURJPY short 125.65 stop 125.90 - addition @ weekly 50fib
EURUSD short 1.34, stop 1.3420 - addition @ weekly 50fib
CRUDE long closed 86.11 (+0.2R) - not liking the price action
GOLD long closed 1157 (+0.85R) - ditto
CRUDE short 86.10 stop 86.40 target 84
EURUSD short closed 1.3390 (+0.5R)
EURGBP long 0.8730 stop 0.8710 target TBD
EURGBP closed 87.60 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY closed 50% @ 143.20 (+1.14R) for the weekend
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 85.20 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
EURUSD short 1.35 stop 1.3530 - 1/2 
EURJPY short 127.20 stop 127.40 - 1/4 
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9965
GBPJPY short 1.44 stop 1.4435 - 1/2
CRUDE short 86.10 stop 86.40 - 1/2


  1. Jeez Nic, how do you keep track of all the open trades. You are like a bot or you have an EA :-)

    I am skeptical of crude unless it crosses 8650 (UTL). Momentum isn't that great what we had in last few days. Maybe US breaks it when they join.

    Aussie is doing great perfect trendline follower. Can't attach the chart.

    Gold is going to go higher than before. Perhaps 14+, going higher doesn't make sense to me as generally it's an indication of risk covering. But who am I argue with the market.


  2. Hey Ams
    I am watching crude and gold and I don't like it at all. I am getting out of crude and gold and will wait for the US to open now I think.

  3. cool, pa is well dodgy for crude, no momentum and crazy news flying all around. EU rockets on news that Greece bailed out tanks on fitch downgrade. Fundamentally makes sense though.

    I think it will take some time for market to digest and next week will be interesting to watch. I reckon rally with a false down move.

    I mean come on dow is just few points away from 11K, and S&P from 1200 and once it's there, then we might have a different story for retrace or may be not. Market wants to sell but fed ain't gonna give it to them by not hiking rates hence no home for cheap money (another bubble).

  4. I can't keep up with the rumours today ...
    Even if Greece is done, there is never just one cockroach

  5. Look at Gold .. on the neckline of the head and shoulders and gold in euro's is in the stratosphere. Someone should tell the Greeks to read Zerohedge, its only fiat paper gold.

  6. yup, sell the rallies...
    once cockroach dies another pops. Now we have spain and portugal needs something..

    gold, look at crude doesn't make any sense why they are on the opposite side today when equities are on rally!! crazy markets!!

  7. My head hurts!! One minute up the next down - the short time frame guys are having a ball. There must be a load of new quant programmes out there that are really messing up the markets??!! Never seen things like this in oil/forex etc. This sort of volatility leads me to think there is some bad /unexpected news in the offing!

  8. The correlations are all screwed up that is what is weird too. Oil and the dollar have been going up and down together lately. They are supposed to break down at tops and bottoms but I have given up thinking this might be a top.
    Have a nice weekend all, I am looking forward to more sleep.

  9. Hardest and most expensive part of this business is the being early part. Someone smart told me to paper trade the first two iterations of a trade after I identify it, to give other people chance to catch up....

    Frustrating as hell if you dwell on it. So, that's why they invented weekends ! One day we will look back on this... and cry.

  10. You can say that again Nic- what a screwy state of affairs.
    Thanks for all the work this week, really enjoying this blog.

  11. Nic, an article for you on rising crude prices with links from Calculated Risk.