Friday, April 16, 2010

Friday 16 April

Will we have profit-taking Friday or will the bulls push up for a strong weekly close?
In FX it looks like weekly inside bars across a lot of pairs after a week of back and fill.
I am out of ideas for today so will just try not to lose money.  After a week of inside bars we should see some good moves next week, and with the dollar index looking to close below its ascending channel it looks like we could see some more USD weakness.  Commodity currencies have spent the week in a very tight range which usually signals something bigger coming.

I got stopped out of NZDJPY short earlier which is irritating as it was doing quite well, but sticking to the rules has kept me in EURGBP short although it looks like I got within a pip of being stopped last night.  USDJPY spike was called by Reuters running old news story about intervention.  
EUR still looks really heavy and perhaps the gaps finally close in the last of the EUR crosses. My EURCHF short is stuck on support.
USDCAD retested the 1.000 and so far has held as support.

Gold is in a very tight range, it does need to drop more to get me to buy but 1150 is proving strong support.
The daily hanging man is ominous in Crude with a potential double top, profit taking could make that a good short today but not a trade to get married to as $90+ still looks a certainty.
Note I am not trading front month US crude, its the last week of the contract so have rolled to June.

Update:  forgot to add GE and Bank of America reporting before the bell today, building permits and options expiries in stocks could mean some volatility.

NZDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1hr flag break target 85 / 84.40
EURJPY short 125 stop 125.30 break of support
EURAUD short closed 1.4550 double bottom (+1.28R)
GBPJPY short closed 50% @ 3R 142.65 (+1.5R)
USDCAD short closed 50% @3R 1.0076 (+1.5R)
EURJPY short closed 50% @3R 124.10 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short closed 50%@ 3R 84.72 (+1.5R)
USDCAD closed 25% @6R 1.0151 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY closed 25% @6R 141.30 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
EURCHF short 1.4365 stop 1.4385
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2 + 1.3560 stop 1.3590
USDCAD long 1.0001 stop 0.9976 - 1/4
GBPJPY short 1.44 stop 1.4445 - 1.4
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1/2
EURJPY short 125 stop 125.30 - 1/2

Crude hourly flag break

One to watch -
EURJPY weekly, sitting on key support at 125.  Dollar weakness next week might pull USDJPY more and take this one down with it back to the lows at 119 which is potentially 600pips away (OR its a great place to buy ;) )

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