Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Back in a few weeks

I just found out I am definately moving so I am taking a break from trading for a couple of weeks.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Monday 09 November

I am very behind.  I spent the weekend with a flurry of activity selling my house and it looks like I might be moving in 3 weeks (fingers crossed) so no time to look at charts this weekend and I am taking some time off to pack.

CRUDE short balance closed 79.10 (+2.91%)
No Open Positions:

Friday, November 6, 2009

Friday 06 November 2009 NFP

If anyone is wondering why someone who owns a private jet charter company is trading full time then this news from NetJets might help to explain. I am no fan of fractional ownership but these guys are the biggest fish in the pond, have the lowest operating costs and if they are not making it then no one is. More aviation companies in the US have failed this year than banks and thats saying something.

Slept in this morning for NFP day and then got up for the shocking headline CAD employment numbers (so much for green shoots) although beneath the numbers it was not that bad.  My AUDCAD short not looking so pretty.

I have two small positions running, short crude and AUDCAD and if I don't like what happens after NFP I might take the rest of the day off.

GBPJPY short 149.85 stop 150.35
CRUDE addition 78.99 stop 79.29
CRUDE addition closed 77.00- trendline support (+6.63%)
GBPJPY closed 149 - dbl bottom (+1.7%)
AUDCAD balance stopped out (-0.5%)

Open Positions:

CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Thursday 05 November 2009

I am struggling with charts this morning.  Technically a failed breakout should produce a powerful reversal move and technically EURUSD broke the daily ascending trendline from the lows and then yesterdays FOMC moves put it back above it.  This failed breakout (down) should be strongly bullish but it is weak, back below support and so the ECB rate decision today should be the decider.  This failed breakout scenario applies for a lot of the charts including sterling ... also rate decision today.  I am speculatively short but will cut trades if the decisions go against me. 

S&P has broken daily support line but climbed up the underside of it yesterday and failed to close above after the FOMC.  There is minor support from a more recent trendline but the price action and break of the more significant support line says more downside to come ...  However until the other support line is broken another run up to test the 1075 area is not out of the question.

And gold is trending beautifully, channel is looking good:

Asian session last night:
EURJPY short 134.65 stop 135.05
AUDJPY short 82.35 stop 82.75
NZDJPY short 65.60 stop 65.85
GBPJPY short 150.20 stop 150.60
I have decided to close a lot of positions, EURUSD is looking bullish as are the indices and the dollar could take another dip.  Will review again after rate statements.
USDCHF long closed 1.01665 trendline break (+1.16%)
AUDUSD short closed 0.9063 trendline break (+1.83%)
EURJPY short closed 133.75 (+2.25%)
NZDJPY short closed 65.00 (+2.4%)
AUDJPY closed 81.85 trendline break (+1.0%)
GBPJPY closed 149.20 trendline break (+2.5%)
EURUSD 26Oct closed balance 148.55 (+2.08%)
GBPUSD closed 1.6506 (+1.0%)

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Wednesday 04 November 09

I'm having a pretty cautious morning.  I have a lot of positions on and I am riding some retracements, braveheart style but the volatility is not so much fun.  The FOMC statement this afternoon is the big news of the day and I am not sure I will do much until then.

GBPJPY (Fri) stopped out balance 149.50 (+0.5%)
EURGBP short 89.50 stop 89.70 break of support
CRUDE short 80.21 stop 80.61 - addition see chart below
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30 - off 150 level (again)
AUDJPY closed 82.10 (+2.14%)
EURJPY closed 133.72 (+2.47%)
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 80.21 stop 80.41 - trying again
CRUDE addition closed 80.11 - stocks rallying hard (+0.5%)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCHF balance stopped out (-0.5%)
Post FOMC:
USDCHF long 1.01433 stop 1.01233
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9148
GBPUSD short 1.6556 stop 1.6606

Crude is at the top of my channel - breakout or range trade ?  The SnP is at the 61.8fib of the last swing ...

Same with a lot of currency pairs too - here is cable 4hr:

And EURUSD at trendline, 50fib and underside of daily rising trendline from below:

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Tuesday 03 November 2009

Well we survived yesterdays full moon :)  The only thing that is certain at the moment is the volatility. 
The indices are at key levels on trendline support from the March lows and there seems to be quite a battle raging.  The Dow Transportation Av and Russell 2000 have clearly broken the support lines, and have double topped.  Overseas the Nikkei has broken out and the Dax has broken from the bull channel.  The others are putting up a fight now.
EURUSD sitting on similar trendline support needs to break out to show the way.  At this point I would not be surprised if the market rallies setting up some shorts for NFP and I am prepared to cut my positions and re-enter if that happens.
Because today is ..... "Turnaround Tuesday"

I left an order short last night for NZDJPY which was filled.  The weekly has broken the rising trendline support from the lows.
Today I will sell Cable, AUDUSD on breaks of support lines and look to add to my existing positions if the indices look weak.

NZDJPY short 64.99 stop 65.19 - see chart
GBPUSD short 1.6349 stop 1.6389 - hourly trendline break
AUDUSD short 0.8998 stop 0.9028 - hourly trendline break
CRUDE short 77.98 stop 78.38 - addition
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 76.78 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR 0.8938 (+1.5%)
NZDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDUSD stopped out balance (-0.5%)

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170

Monday, November 2, 2009

Monday 02 November 2009

Lots of PMI data this morning but the big news comes later in the week.  Seems very quiet after the big moves in Asia overnight and I am expecting some retracements after the big moves on Friday, but looking for some breakouts.
I am riding out the retraces with my shorts in crude, EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY.

AUDUSD short 0.9028 stop 0.9048 trendine break
GBPUSD short 1.6445 stop 1.6480 hourly trendline break
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.6355 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY short 148 stop 148.35 - addition
EURJPY short 133.25 stop 133.45 addition 50fib retrace
USDJPY short 90.00 stop 90.15 - 1hr trendline break
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 146.95 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 77.95 stop 78.30 - addition
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 76.95 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6337 stop 1.6372 - addition, 1hr trendline break
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY addition balance stopped out (+1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
The ISM numbers that were slightly better than expected ate all my stops ... :(
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170, hourly IB off the lows
CRUDE short 78.40, stop 78.75, rejection of 50fib last swing
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 77.35 (+1.5%)
CRUDE addition balance closed 77.55 (+1.21%)
GBPUSD closed 1.640 (+0.64%)
USDCHF long banked 50% @3xR 1.0250 (+1.5%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170