Friday, April 2, 2010

Friday 02 April NFP

Last night at 5PM the Fed announced an under-the-radar meeting for Monday to discuss the discount rate.  Interesting timing considering the rest of the world is on a 4day holiday weekend.  They have to do something about bond yields or the mortgage rates are going to go up and wreck any recovery in housing or CRE.  The last time they had a sneaky meeting like this was in February when they surprise hiked the overnight rate.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100405/advancedexp.htm

I held my currency trades through NFP which was a bit of a gamble ...  jobs numbers have come in as a good number but less than forecast and no change to the unemployment rate.

New trades:
EURCAD short 1.3695 stop 1.3745 looking for break of daily bear flag
AUDCAD short 0.9285 stop 0.9315 looking for break of daily bear flag
GBPUSD short 1.5230 stop 1.5280 swing target 1.5050
GBPJPY stopped out 143.60 breakeven post NFP & TL break
GBPUSD stopped out BE - Sunday night open.
NZDJPY short 66.85 stop 67.05 target 65 - Sunday night open
CRUDE stopped out  (-1R) - Sunday night open
EURCAD closed 1.3610 (+1.7R) - Sunday night open
EURCAD long 1.3610 stop 1.3560 target 1.4150 counter-trend, Sunday night open

I know anyone reading this is going to think I lost my mind buying EUR vs CAD.  It's a fib thing ...

Open trades:
NZDUSD short 0.7095 stop 0.7120
AUDUSD short 0.92 stop 0.9220
AUDCAD short 0.9285 stop 0.9315
NZDJPY short 66.85 stop 67.0
EURCAD long 1.3610 stop 1.3560
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6 comments:

  1. amsApril 2, 2010 at 5:12 PM

    Nic is crude market close for these holidays?
    No movement I see.


    ta
    ams

    ReplyDelete
  2. grimweaselApril 2, 2010 at 5:24 PM

    Them pesky Fed people! I see the Dow had not managed to break higher than the top of that daily Shooter last Thurs. Guess the markets are fearing a rate rise? Thanks for the update Nic!

    ReplyDelete
  3. NicApril 2, 2010 at 6:59 PM

    Yeah crude is closed Ams. Probably lucky for me :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. NicApril 2, 2010 at 7:00 PM

    The Dow looks like a nice short to me Grimweasel. See what Manic Monday and Turnaround Tuesday do!

    ReplyDelete
  5. LeftbackApril 2, 2010 at 9:38 PM

    Quite anxious to get stuck into shorting some precious metals, but most trading capital is deployed in hedging our bond book... that's really my priority into the auctions next week.

    Seems to LB that this is where gold might start moving rather quickly in units of $50-100/wk, but not in the favored direction of goldbugs !! Silver looks way over-heated here also.

    I really think DXY 83 and 84 are not far away, it will only take a hint of more problems in the Eurozone, and we know that there are a ton of them out there in the future.

    Yen-wise, I think we'll see carry trades fairly strong for a few days before we can get back to plotting the demise of the AUD and CAD.

    ReplyDelete
  6. NicApril 2, 2010 at 10:00 PM

    Leftback
    AUD interest rate decision on lending rate will be interesting Monday night. Market and economists have priced in 25bps hike. If they get dovish and hold at 4% then that premium will have to be wound off. Last time they wobbled and held rates the decline was very sharp.

    ReplyDelete

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