Thursday, April 22, 2010

Thursday 22 April

The US dollar right now is on its best run since the week ending December 22 but yesterday it didn't do the trick for oil, silver and gold which stayed bid despite falling indices and a strong dollar.  Today they may decide to go with the flow and we could see declines in all three.

It's all about the PIGS and particularly Greece and Greek bund spreads continue to set new records.  Sterling looks supported and has had some really good economic numbers but unemployment yesterday was back to back ugly.  Tomorrow is the BoE rate decision ...

Big US news this morning with PPI and employment numbers.

BRENT crude short 85.20 stop 85.50 PT 83
SILVER short 17.96 stop 18.01 PT 17.50 - trying again
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9980 PT 1.015 / 1.07
BRENT  closed 50% @3R 84.30 (+1.5R)
EURUSD short addition closed 1.3280 (+2.56R)
SILVER short closed break even - 4hr hammer
NZDUSD short balance stopped out 0.6995 (+0.5R)
AUDUSD short balance stopped out 0.9272 (+0.5R)
BRENT short balance stopped out (-0.5R)

Open trades:
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2
CRUDE short 85.98 stop 86.40 - 1/4
EURGBP short 0.8765 stop 0.8780 - 1/2
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9980 - I don't know how I didn't get stopped out on this.  A miracle.

PS - This came out this morning:
There is pretty good money fading these calls, I'm just saying.  The ones on the EUR were no better.

a good lesson in why you keep old trendlines on your charts ...
The trendline that contained the bounce today was the old one joining the 03Dec high, the 17March high and was where we broke out and gapped up on the faux bailout announcement.  We broke back below it today and it contained the bounce in EURUSD.


  1. yup, equities tanking but not as much I as was thinking (1-1.5%), DOW might not close below 11k. I expect this euro drama to continue until chinese yuan appreciates by another 10 percent. I see everyone, specially european export driven countries like (Germany) in panic due to china. But I see Japan in panic if yuan appreciates as they get all manufacturing done from china even if it's . So Japan might revert it's base from china unless they get some tax benefit. Jeez complex scenerio for the world. Who knows what'll happen. One thing for sure, whole world is at currency war with each other.

  2. Equities are so frustrating ... this feels like last August!
    I would like a correction in equities so we get a good dip in USDJPY and I can buy it.
    I keep feeling like I missed the boat on that one. Maybe I should scale in, buy small bits with wide-assed stops.
    USDJPY long and AUDCAD short are my favourite longer term trades I guess.

  3. Hi Nicola,
    was just directed to your blog,congratulations. Mr. Big has done a fine job indeed as has his student. Keep up the good work.

  4. Hello Bear, Thank you very much!

  5. Seems we have very similar views and methods, but as usual im outdone by a woman´s discipline and intuition.... maybe woman are from forex, men are from bonds.

  6. Bear, it certainly wasn't always that way. I had some rules beaten into me and there are days when I still manage to get off the rails.