Thursday 15 April

Yesterday the spreads on all European debt widened out but the EUR shrugged it off and stayed well bid.  This morning that negative sentiment looks like it might catch up with it.  EURUSD has got stuck at the 1.3680 level which was a big pivot in February and I am going to try a short here again to close the gap.
Likewise EURJPY is at a big pivot level (check the weekly chart) and struggling so that is an interesting countertrend short today also.
The equity rally has kept the commodity currencies well bid (although there is talk of an option barrier at 0.94 in AUDUSD) and I have missed the big sterling rally somewhat but if the gap closes in EURGBP and it keeps going then it will break out a long term wedge and be a very interesting trade short.  I did think that the support in EURGBP would hold but Sterling is proving strong and Euro sentiment is poor so it may finally break down.
Although Gold has broken out and looks set for higher it bounced off the 1170 level and formed a bearish evening star pattern on the daily and it needs to pull back to try again.  As a range trade this is interesting at the top of the range and I think it has potential to come back as retest its breakout level at 1118
USDJPY is not continuing its rally and I think there are a number of reasons.  The CoT numbers show the market is very onesided on the long side and also I hear that central banks who would normally diversify their USD into EUR are wary of it and buying yen instead. Also talk of Yuan revaluation TODAY is making this cross heavy.   I am hoping 92.00 or 91.30 will give some buying opportunities.

EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 target 1.35
EURJPY short127.10 stop 127.40 target 125
GBPCHF short balance stopped out 1.6335 (+0.5R)
EURJPY closed 50% @50fib 125.70 (+2.33R)
EURUSD closed 50% @3R 1.3555 (+1.5R)
EURAUD closed 50% @3R 1.4535 (+1.5R)
EURJPY closed balance @126.00 (+1.83R)
EURGBP short 0.8767 stop 0.8787 target 0.86 + lower, looking for trendline break
USDCAD long 1.0001 stop 0.9976 target 1.010
EURUSD short 1.3560 stop 1.3590 - addition, 4hr IB
GBPJPY short 1.44 stop 1.4445 target 142.65 / 141 - 4hr IB
NZDJPY short 66.15 stop 66.40 target 64.50

I am a little heavy short EUR but Greek and Portuguese bonds are being murdered so ... :)

Open trades:

EURCHF short 1.4365 stop 1.4385

EURAUD short 1.4640 stop 1.4675 - 1/2
EURUSD short 136.30 stop 1.3655 - 1/2 + 1.3560 stop 1.3590
USDCAD long 1.0001 stop 0.997
GBPJPY short 1.44 stop 1.4445
NZDJPY short 66.15 stop 66.40

End of day update:  Cable has stalled again at 1.55 following the election debate in the UK and Google failing to meet estimates has down pressure on Jpy crossed and indices.  Hence I am selling GBPJPY (& NZDJPY).  I would really like to sell EURJPY but I am already too short EUR and CHFJPY is the same trade.

GBPJPY 4hr chart

NZDJPY 1hr bear flag