tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28800065699558135362024-03-12T23:24:20.060+00:00Big TradingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger331125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-19082414030125576162012-05-29T13:38:00.000+01:002012-05-29T13:51:55.704+01:00Tuesday May 29th Crude oil, Gold, Silver, CopperI apologise for the lack of posts, I had a bit of struggle to keep up with everything.<br />
This market has been dead since last Thursday and chopped around. Bearish sentiment hit extremes last week ( <br />
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Looking for a bounce in Oil ... Remember buy dips not rips ...<br />
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July WTI is a bullish crab pattern off the round $90 level, the trend is
clearly down but we have a lot lined up in favour of a bounce here (to
sell again later) At the very least we will retest 95.43</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qu9GWilpyao/T8ST3TFvzeI/AAAAAAAAB_M/PKl4LU9EE-o/s1600/brent+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qu9GWilpyao/T8ST3TFvzeI/AAAAAAAAB_M/PKl4LU9EE-o/s400/brent+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Brent (loves the 78.6fib)<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3Lvg1mjUDNg/T8S45fWdNyI/AAAAAAAAB_Y/ssKsS1ScoLk/s1600/copper+daily.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3Lvg1mjUDNg/T8S45fWdNyI/AAAAAAAAB_Y/ssKsS1ScoLk/s400/copper+daily.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Copper <br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-niuXMQJ3Hu8/T8S8MLOAGPI/AAAAAAAAB_k/VkM31kH0UPs/s1600/gold+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-niuXMQJ3Hu8/T8S8MLOAGPI/AAAAAAAAB_k/VkM31kH0UPs/s400/gold+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Gold - 4hr chart <br />
Smart reversal at the 50fib and 1600 level could mean a retest & break of the 1526 lows next. However if risk appetite improves and we break the 1600 resistance level then 1620 is resistance and 1640 resistance completes a bearish bat harmonic pattern for a sell.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GQe7_J5m30E/T8TC3IHKFRI/AAAAAAAAB_w/JxVCXdqKbhk/s1600/silver+weekly.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GQe7_J5m30E/T8TC3IHKFRI/AAAAAAAAB_w/JxVCXdqKbhk/s400/silver+weekly.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Silver weekly chart <br />
Like gold its in a pretty clear buy zone and two weekly hammers (last week also an inside bar) but something about this chart just says lower to me. The daily making a nice tight consolidation triangle for a breakout trade. If we break higher I would look for price action at $30, 31 or 32.10 to resell<br />
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Silver 4hr chartUnknownnoreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-38209219013241674482012-05-14T22:29:00.004+01:002012-05-14T22:35:52.716+01:00Monday 14th May 2012I can't believe I did almost no trades last week (apart from a loser in USDCHF). I kept waiting for pullbacks that never happened.<br />
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Monday is my hospital day so only one trade and I will post charts tomorrow.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/NicTrades/status/201947192133554177" target="_blank">This morning I bought GBPAUD</a>, sterling is strong, AUD is selling, there was a nice 1hr wedge consolidation<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fuApJR13r_E/T7F6D9QbQvI/AAAAAAAAB-c/r_bsquWKqO0/s1600/gbpaud+hourly1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fuApJR13r_E/T7F6D9QbQvI/AAAAAAAAB-c/r_bsquWKqO0/s400/gbpaud+hourly1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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GBPAUD hourly</div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j8AZczS3e04/T7F6pWJFcJI/AAAAAAAAB-s/0vl1lXq0qSw/s1600/gbpaud+daily1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j8AZczS3e04/T7F6pWJFcJI/AAAAAAAAB-s/0vl1lXq0qSw/s400/gbpaud+daily1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
GBPAUD daily <br />
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New Trade:<br />
GBPAUD long 1.6060 stop 1.6010 target 1.6360<br />
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Open trades:<br />
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36<br />
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175<br />
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30(1/4 position)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-63520517875261405902012-05-08T12:05:00.000+01:002012-05-10T11:51:21.928+01:00Stock Indexes Tuesday 8th May 2012What a sell off last week, led by oil. Stock indexes have been range bound for sometime and we are still pretty much range bound but the market may have finally made its move.<br />
The AAII investor sentiment showed a the biggest ever neutral sentiment and then last week it spiked 30% sharply higher (to a 6 month high) That apparently was the warning sign as investors who hated the rally in January and February finally pile in and get stuffed again.<br />
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S&P (emini chart)4hr. Bearish bounce off the 38.2 fib retracement of last weeks highs, I am waiting for an entry to resell again. The 1380.75 pivot is where I am watching to reload shorts but it could just keep selling off ...<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8jZ3qkYKYtU/T6juc9bsmeI/AAAAAAAAB9g/h9GkF6k4EQ0/s1600/ftse+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8jZ3qkYKYtU/T6juc9bsmeI/AAAAAAAAB9g/h9GkF6k4EQ0/s400/ftse+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
FTSE daily chart. Bear flag within a broader bullish gartley pattern, I prefer to sell rallies for a retest of the 5070 low next<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iCqtRfO3u5A/T6j1yChQUiI/AAAAAAAAB9s/UTtygKLAwiU/s1600/dax+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iCqtRfO3u5A/T6j1yChQUiI/AAAAAAAAB9s/UTtygKLAwiU/s400/dax+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
DAX daily chart, put in a bearish reversal monthly candle for April ... the most bearish chart of the stock indexes I look at. It is a bearish Gartley pattern which hit the first target of 5441 on Friday. It will likely bounce here but a close below 5441 sets up a retest of last autumns lows next.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r7UdT0gcb6Q/T6j70sDIMsI/AAAAAAAAB94/hGrypV_T-2A/s1600/RUT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r7UdT0gcb6Q/T6j70sDIMsI/AAAAAAAAB94/hGrypV_T-2A/s400/RUT.png" width="400" /></a></div>
RUT bottom of wedge / triangle could see boounce here. Bearish gartley still in play with first target of 769.50<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SoTw6lhqSgQ/T6j9kiUbNWI/AAAAAAAAB-A/YrQZgOZ_hds/s1600/nq+weekly.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SoTw6lhqSgQ/T6j9kiUbNWI/AAAAAAAAB-A/YrQZgOZ_hds/s400/nq+weekly.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Nasdaq (weekly chart) the low of last months hanging man has broken and we look set for more downside. Weakly bearish engulfing and not yet at a support level I would buy off.<br />
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I tried a countertrend back and fill trade in USDCHF this morning -1R<br />
Going to keep my powder dry while we consolidate a bit Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-47241888631319882872012-05-04T10:58:00.000+01:002012-05-04T21:49:45.055+01:00NFP FridayHaven't been too well this week and missed the lovely bear flag short in Brent oil yesterday. Will keep selling oil on rallies after Draghi affirmed on the uncertain outlook for the euro. Global efforts to
push crude prices to below $100 seem to be working now and Brent-WTI spread tightening nicely as no one mentions Iran anymore. <br />
The sell off this week makes me think that NFP gives us a final flush ... or we go sideways (doji day) and flush Monday. Eitherway I am buying cable on the dip.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B-COGjSkWuY/T6Oln4Arl2I/AAAAAAAAB88/v8PaN2f4hv8/s1600/brent+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B-COGjSkWuY/T6Oln4Arl2I/AAAAAAAAB88/v8PaN2f4hv8/s400/brent+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Brent daily bear flag break projects 109-110 next <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8oP7JTVKGnw/T6OUJfjOCWI/AAAAAAAAB8M/LlH7jTQgsfE/s1600/es+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8oP7JTVKGnw/T6OUJfjOCWI/AAAAAAAAB8M/LlH7jTQgsfE/s400/es+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
ES 4hr chart - <a href="http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsbat.htm" target="_blank">bearish bat pattern</a> - shows we have a bit lower to go before we hit support<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VGvw6cta374/T6OqOzsYikI/AAAAAAAAB9I/VWjxCZ_Co48/s1600/ftse+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VGvw6cta374/T6OqOzsYikI/AAAAAAAAB9I/VWjxCZ_Co48/s400/ftse+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
FTSE appears to have broken rising wedge from 10 April low (4hr chart). If the harmonic pattern plays out then we go to 5100<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hWHfnKZvr1U/T6OdJji0pLI/AAAAAAAAB8Y/nqY4GwVXHIw/s1600/eurusd+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hWHfnKZvr1U/T6OdJji0pLI/AAAAAAAAB8Y/nqY4GwVXHIw/s400/eurusd+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
Likewise EURUSD has a bit lower before we hit the bottom of the wedge and the 1.30 support zone<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W519JICnqmA/T6Oh_dmmzxI/AAAAAAAAB8k/2Gn1SP9byV0/s1600/cable+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W519JICnqmA/T6Oh_dmmzxI/AAAAAAAAB8k/2Gn1SP9byV0/s400/cable+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
I am watching Cable for a buy entry, I have nibbled a little at 1.6165 here but will stop out and buy lower if I am wrong ... <br />
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Trades today<br />
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30 target 115 & lower<br />
Cable long 1.6165 stop 1.6140 target 1.65<br />
Cable stopped out (My stop was the exact low grrrr) -1R<br />
Brent June closed 50% 115.10 +1.5R<br />
Brent June closed 25% 112.40 +3R<br />
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Open positions:<br />
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36<br />
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175<br />
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-53874930876944534412012-05-02T10:07:00.003+01:002012-05-02T10:08:06.271+01:00Trade UpdateHave not been able to watch screens Monday because of appointments so slow updates sorry.<br />
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EURUSD (daily chart) my target was 1.33 and it topped out at 1.3283. I got out late 1.3240 once it was clear we had rolled over at the top of the wedge<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FWOVXLPRh3Q/T6D3wbpF5YI/AAAAAAAAB8A/fuwOL6iHqoU/s1600/euraud+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="199" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FWOVXLPRh3Q/T6D3wbpF5YI/AAAAAAAAB8A/fuwOL6iHqoU/s320/euraud+4hr.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
EURAUD (4hr chart) was a false breakout that failed to hold on a retest so I am out also.<br />
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AUDUSD I was stopped out on the balance of my position on the surprise 50bps rate cut Monday<br />
Still short USDJPY & new trade short EURGBP<br />
I liked yesterdays shooting star, even tho we are on fib support the trend is clearly lower. The SNB also love EURGBP and are buying GBP with their EUR so I have them on my side ;) 0.80673 important support EURGBP needs to break and hold below.<br />
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AUDUSD balance half position stopped out (-0.5R)<br />
EURUSD closed balance 1.3240 (+2.2R)<br />
EURAUD closed balance 1.2782 (+1.6R)<br />
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36<br />
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175<br />
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Open positions:<br />
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-65630915359145205122012-04-27T11:15:00.000+01:002012-04-28T15:43:49.118+01:00Spain Pain shortlivedS&P downgraded Spain to B last night and for some bizarre reason the market was surprised. My long positions looked like crap this morning (AUD got within 2 pips of my stop & I got stopped out of some crude) but you can't keep a good market down and a sharp rally / sell off in USD underway.<br />
Technically most markets either in congestion or have broken out to the 'risk-on' side.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vKyJIdPwhfk/T5pmSMTjEPI/AAAAAAAAB7Y/DDLLUyEJhHA/s1600/usdjpy+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vKyJIdPwhfk/T5pmSMTjEPI/AAAAAAAAB7Y/DDLLUyEJhHA/s400/usdjpy+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
James commented that USDJPY humped itself on the BoJ news last night. It did but its also a messy retest of the broken bear flag for more downside. 4hr chart USDJPY<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pNOELnCxWyI/T5pujOXUq6I/AAAAAAAAB7k/W30PkxioQws/s1600/audusd+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pNOELnCxWyI/T5pujOXUq6I/AAAAAAAAB7k/W30PkxioQws/s400/audusd+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
AUDUSD headed for 1.0435 pivot next. A close above1.04513 confirms the bottom and projects a targets of 1.0595 & 1.0670<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W0rrdGhbz_4/T5pv31oVlKI/AAAAAAAAB7s/7G7dKv1EfO0/s1600/nzdusd+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W0rrdGhbz_4/T5pv31oVlKI/AAAAAAAAB7s/7G7dKv1EfO0/s400/nzdusd+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
NZDUSD is setting up 4th inside day in a row (Krabel fans will be watching). Whilst I really like it back to the pivot at 7975 if the broader market is rallying 'risk on' then its just going to stay in this range<br />
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More charts for everything this weekend ...<br />
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<u>Trades:</u><br />
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36<br />
AUDUSD closed half position 104.30 (+1.5R) <br />
CL long from 103.90 balance stopped out on spike (-0.5R) <br />
WTI long from 103.05 closed balance 104.25 (+2R)<br />
(-- need CL to close above 104.66 to stay bullish & so far not happening, when I exit it will)<br />
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Open positions:<br />
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position<br />
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position<br />
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AUDUSD long 10370 stop 1.0350 target 106 - half position<br />
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A great day!<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-31177557627138606712012-04-26T12:57:00.000+01:002012-04-28T15:41:54.765+01:0026 April 2012USDCAD has broken out, much like cable. Most of the other major FX pairs are still rangebound. I usually consider CAD a leading indicator so could be a sign of things to come for the USD.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6M1u0rutxWE/T5ke-FCeJEI/AAAAAAAAB64/UWI3S0BagAM/s1600/usdcad+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6M1u0rutxWE/T5ke-FCeJEI/AAAAAAAAB64/UWI3S0BagAM/s400/usdcad+daily.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
USDCAD daily chart<br />
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USDJPY has broken the bear flag for a move lower (4hr chart). Selling a retest of 81.07 is a nice short entry for a move back to 78.30<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yHxFrsHQ_qE/T5kj1uNfsrI/AAAAAAAAB7M/odxvTCXS7NQ/s1600/es+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yHxFrsHQ_qE/T5kj1uNfsrI/AAAAAAAAB7M/odxvTCXS7NQ/s400/es+4hr.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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Emini S&P fake-out breakout of the range? Thursdays are often bullish trend days in the US session so waiting to see how this plays out. Nasdaq is same setup but a channel breakout, not a horizontal range.<br />
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WTI June long 104.05 stop 103.90 target breakout of channel<br />
WTI June long stopped out 103.90 (-1R)<br />
WTI June long 103.90 stop 103.70 target break above 104.55 for 110<br />
US Open: AUDUSD long 10370 stop 1.0350 target 104.30 & above<br />
WTI June long from 103.90 banked 50% 104.40 (+1.5R)<br />
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Open positions:<br />
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position<br />
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position<br />
WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target - half positionUnknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-26304769678690632512012-04-25T14:19:00.001+01:002012-04-25T14:27:53.061+01:00FOMC day chartsUK posted negative GDP for trhe second month in a row and slips back into recession. Temporary or a sign of things to come?<br />
Otherwise pretty calm markets into todays FOMC. FOMC shouldn't matter as the Fed have promised to hold rates low until at least 2014 but market is still stalling.<br />
Apple (AAPL) smashed earnings last night and twitter is full of the pundits (who were ALL bearish end of last week) now calling for $800 and $1000. <br />
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WTI - CL June daily bull flag or stay in the wedge & more downside? <br />
Bigger picture we are still in a bearish gartley pattern (<a href="http://chart.ly/i4nkrq6" target="_blank">see here chart from 7 weeks ago</a>) but CL a better long set up than Brent. If this flag breaks to the upside and we close above 110 then upside targets are 116.50 & 121.60<br />
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AUDUSD 4 hr chart. Similar setup, channel/wedge set for bullish breakout to the upside after triple bottom now on 50fib level<br />
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GBPJPY daily At resistance within a wedge (like everything else). Bigger picture is a <a href="http://www.harmonictrader.com/batbearre.jpg" target="_blank">bearish bat pattern </a><br />
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E-mini S&P June futures rangebound, approaching the top (again)<br />
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Today:<br />
I should have sold cable on the GDP this morning but bottled out.<br />
I will buy AUDUSD on a breakout of this channel. <br />
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EURUSD banked half 1.3212 +1.5R<br />
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Open positions:<br />
EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33 - half position<br />
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position<br />
WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target - half position<br />
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Be lucky for FOMC :)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-46832356588447248722012-04-24T15:48:00.000+01:002012-04-24T15:48:09.872+01:00EUR crosses<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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EURGBP daily<br />
EURGBP has really been respecting the fib swing from the Oct08 lows to Dec08 high and we are still in the range of that swing. So now we re back at the 78fib and swing highs from the summer 08 again it should bounce this is a major pivot zone.<br />
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Weekly chart <br />
Bigger picture I think this level breaks and we go to 0.79 then 0.77<br />
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EURAUD <br />
I bought the break of the bear flag I posted <a href="http://chart.ly/wd9dkkm" target="_blank">on twitter last week</a>. I am still long. Upside target 1.3167 with a bump at 1.2970<br />
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EURJPY daily <br />
Not as bullish as it looks because we haven't taken out the last (Oct11) swing high but holding above the 105.70 pivot level is positive. Below 105.70 I would be a buyer at 101.36 for a massive inverse head and shoulders reversal.<br />
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EURCHF daily chart <br />
I am not long, I have been selling little rallies and exiting on dips to 1.20 The fibonacci pattern, the chart pattern, and the fact that the whole world and his dog is long EURCHF tells me to be flat or short. I do not know the political mechanism that would get us there but my target is 1.1890 and I would buy it there<br />
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<u>Tuesday </u><br />
I am long EURAUD from last week and I bought some EURUSD and WTI crude today. WTI stuck at the weekly pivot level 103.80, I already have half off and will exit if we can't clear this level soon I am not holding overnight. EURUSD is a swing back to the top of the wedge 1.33 level but may hold half for an upside break<br />
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EURUSD long 1.3152 stop 1.3132 target 1.33<br />
WTI June long 103.05 stop 102.75 ... open target<br />
WTI June long exited half position 103.95 +1.5R<br />
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from last week:<br />
EURAUD long 12672 stop 1.2638 target 1.3175 - half position left<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-86897137606461483432012-04-23T16:51:00.001+01:002012-04-23T16:51:30.596+01:00June Brent, WTI & NatgasAt this time I am selling rallies in Brent and buying dips in WTI crude<br />
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Brent daily chart <br />
Bearish harmonic pattern, below the 120 triple top level of last summers highs is bearish. Next support 115 & 113.80<br />
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Brent weekly chart <br />
I know some people will look at this and laugh. I will just say open your mind to the possibility ... <br />
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CL - WTI crude hourly<br />
This 102-102.30 pretty nice pivot to buy off (probably tomorrow for me now) now we have taken out the stops below last weeks low. Holding below here sets up a retest of 100.80 for sure. I'm OK with being wrong.<br />
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Natgas Daily chart <br />
Bullish reversal candle but holding below $2.00 round number and no trend change yet. Taking out last weeks high at 2.016 might be a setup for the very brave to then buy the next dip for a run to 2.208.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-13304326683265507822012-04-23T15:50:00.001+01:002012-04-23T15:58:57.217+01:00Stock index charts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Emini S&P 4hr <br />
4hr chart ... looks like a bearish flag break but on a Monday when you have really bearish starts like today the US often gobbles them up so shorts beware at this point.<br />
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Weekly chart <br />
Bigger picture weekly chart is turning bearish (although not as bad as EU indexes) back below the 1375 pivot is not good but we could find some support from the mid channel area. Solid support at 1340 then 1317.<br />
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Nasdaq (emini chart) weekly <br />
On its way back to retest support 2420 area. Hourly chart is oversold now and monthly support at 2622 could stop the drop for today. 4 weeks red in a row in springtime is a little unusual too.<br />
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4hr chart channel <br />
This is what I am watching for direction, support 2622<br />
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FTSE weekly diamond (not as big as Ibex tho) <br />
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Daily chart<br />
Support at the 5500 pivot but below that harmonic pattern & measured move target is 5281 again. 5660 a good level to sell again<br />
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DAX weekly chart <br />
Bearish harmonic pattern, a bear flag or has it gone too far? Only below 6440 pivot gets me really bearish & says 4450 to meUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-64024401098379898552012-04-23T14:14:00.001+01:002012-04-24T00:24:42.832+01:00USD crossesDollar Index:<br />
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Monthly chart.<br />
My view is we are on our way back to the top of the wedge and we have
hit mid pattern congestion or are we headed back to the 76.40-77.20 zone
before higher. <br />
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Daily chart <br />
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Daily chart shows harmonic pattern setting up if we break this wedge to the downside with a measured move and fib target zone 76.20-40 where I would be a buyer<br />
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This tightening up in the dollar index is pretty clear in the major pairs with GBP the strongest vs the dollar with a break to the upside and NZD & just behind AUD as the weakest. EUR & CHF are in tight wedges setting up breakout trades<br />
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EURUSD daily<br />
I like EURUSD long on dips to 1.3837 where I am a seller again<br />
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EURUSD hourly channel support <br />
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GBPUSD weekly - huge bullish week last week, on its way back to the top of the wedge, are people pricing in a UK rate hike now Posen has flipped? I am watching a retest of 1.60 to buy. <br />
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Cable hourly channel in play now <br />
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AUDUSD daily chart <br />
After double bottom at the 50fib Aussie has held in the channel and rolled over. My downside targets for this bearish pattern are below parity at 98 if the 1.0250 level does not hold this time<br />
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Weekly chart bigger picture has Aussie in a bearish AB=CD from the 08 lows<br />
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NZDUSD weekly chart<br />
(also bearish harmonic pattern) After weeks chopping around above 2008 highs back to 0.7978 support next looks most likely<br />
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USDCAD daily chart <br />
My worst performing market, need to remove my own limits, it's been a long time since this market was trending, rangebound since the start of the year, buy the bottom & sell the top til it breaks. <br />
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USDCHF daily chart <br />
Another wedge, there is a pattern here ... ;)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3J4NPs-TK0k/T5VU7Onrc9I/AAAAAAAAB3o/p6k-UKfRE1g/s1600/usdjpy+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="219" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3J4NPs-TK0k/T5VU7Onrc9I/AAAAAAAAB3o/p6k-UKfRE1g/s320/usdjpy+daily.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
USDJPY daily chart <br />
JPY has outperformed the dollar this week & month so far. April is seasonally end of year yen repatriation month. Starting to get that bull flag look which sets up a nice trade for down the road ...80.00 looks like such an easy buy level it got frontrun last time we got close, but my money says 79.50 & 78.30 are better levels.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-38432869649154294192010-11-09T13:00:00.000+00:002010-11-09T13:00:57.142+00:00Back soonSorry for the lack of posts. I have got a bit run down and not feeling too brilliant. Back soon I hope.<br />
<br />
I am tightening up dollar long positions ahead of the G20 meeting this week (I am stopped out of my USDJPY long already) but short EUR vs GBP still looks good.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-58513419183430452092010-11-05T12:27:00.003+00:002010-11-05T15:58:18.862+00:00NFP FridayThe last four jobs numbers days have been sell offs and it is Friday. After massive breakout days yesterday I would not be surprised to see a round of profit taking following the jobs report today.<br />
<br />
My trades as of last night were:<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span><br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"></span>USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Today:</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURUSD short 1.4190 stop 1.4250 PT 1.40 / 1.30<br />
USDCHF stopped out - not a smart trade, going to wait on this one. (-1R)<br />
Crude short 86.80 stop 87.20 PT 85<br />
<br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-79365096140956779292010-11-03T14:48:00.010+00:002010-11-04T21:46:32.600+00:00Waiting for the bearded clamWell elections over, economic data is coming in surprisingly good but none of it really matters until we get the announcement later of how much, how quickly and see what the market makes of it.<br />
<br />
I am waiting to buy dollars on any spike lower. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TNF1Xxt_6gI/AAAAAAAABzU/AERLpYiNH6I/s1600/usdchf+monthly+chart.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TNF1Xxt_6gI/AAAAAAAABzU/AERLpYiNH6I/s320/usdchf+monthly+chart.gif" width="320" /></a></div>My favoured pairs are USDCHF (I like the monthly hammer - see chart) but it has to break back above the previous trendline support around the 1.00 parity level. One to watch.<br />
CHF is weak across the board, the double bottom in GBPCHF and the big bounce in EURCHF make it the best looking for now.<br />
USDJPY is starting to show signs of a reversal but much will depend on what happens in bonds and we will have to wait for the QE2 announcement for that.<br />
<br />
Until FOMC I am scalping crude.<br />
Post inventories:<br />
Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 / 80.00<br />
Crude short closed 50% @3R 83.95 (+1.5R)<br />
GBPAUD long closed 50% @3R 1.6150 (+1.5R)<br />
USDCHF long stopped out balance 0.9740 (+0.5R)<br />
GBPAUD long stopped out balance 1.6050 (+0.5R)<br />
AUDCAD short stopped out (-1R)<br />
EURSGD stopped out (-1R)<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #663b12; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 16px;"></span></span><br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Open trades:</span></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 - 1/2 position<br />
-----------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
THURSDAY update:<br />
Crude short balance stopped out (-0.5R)<br />
Silver long 25.10 stop 23.90 PT 26.20<br />
EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820<br />
CRUDE long 85.90 stop 85.60 PT 87.00<br />
EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33<br />
Silver long closed 50% @3R 25.70 (+1.5R)<br />
Silver long closed balance @ target 26.20 (+2.75R)<br />
Crude long closed 50% @3R 86.80 (+1.5R)<br />
EURCHF short closed 50% @3R 1.3610 (+1.5R)<br />
Crude long closed 86.60 - EOD pre NFP (+1.3R)<br />
EOD trades:<br />
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 - pre BoJ PT 82.50<br />
USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03<br />
<br />
Open positions EOD:<br />
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33</div>USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03</div><br />
<br />
<br />
After all these breakouts I am posting long term charts with targets tonight.<br />
<br />
</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-90857923352567545282010-11-02T04:24:00.011+00:002010-11-03T20:10:27.692+00:00US Midterm election day.The market has historically done well on election day (the Tuesday after the first Monday of November) and during election week. Since 1900, the Dow has averaged a gain of 0.28% on election day versus the average change of 0.03% for all trading days since 1900.<br />
With the big FOMC meeting tomorrow I am not expecting any breakouts of these ranges or any that will have any follow through.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-02/australia-unexpectedly-raises-main-rate-to-4-75-ending-five-month-pause.html">Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates tonight after a 5month pause</a>, citing rising inflation concerns medium term, the reduced risk of lower growth in China and the minutes also say <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17px;">“the economy faces large expansionary shock from terms of trade.”</span><br />
<div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">I don't expect to be doing much trading today ahead of tomorrows decision but will be doing some chart study and post setups here.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></span><br />
EURUSD stopped out balance 1.3970 (+0.5R)<br />
New trade (US session):<br />
GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66<br />
CRUDE short 83.80 stop 84.20 PT 82.50 / 80.00<br />
AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955<br />
CRUDE short stopped out (-1R)<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Open trades:</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span></div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66</span> </span></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-11888408351790533002010-11-01T12:43:00.009+00:002010-11-02T12:46:53.484+00:00Monday 01 NovemberI haven't posted any charts this week yet because everything seems to be on hold and range trading until Wednesdays FOMC announcement. Tomorrow's US elections look like a given with Republicans getting more seats.<br />
EUR is weak across the board this morning as the stories of problems in the peripheries won't go away.<br />
US markets might be rattled by news of bond insurer Ambac missing a coupon payment and could be bankrupt within a month. (ABK is down nearly 55% this morning)<br />
<br />
I am sticking with my theory that the dollar is making a base for a bounce here, that bonds are due to correct lower and that equities still look bullish and the dollar and stocks could rally together for a couple of weeks. All of this is irrelevant if we get a giant bazooka of QE on Wednesday but so much seems to be expected / priced in for QE that it is hard to see that the news will be anything other than a sell event.<br />
<br />
I will post charts Wednesday morning pre FOMC and we will see where we are then.<br />
Note to self - today is a Pomo day (although there have been some signs of pomo fatigue lately, this is also Momo Monday)<br />
<br />
New trade:<br />
EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMrLAK20-cI/AAAAAAAABzM/yiKvBd5p4uM/s1600/eurusd+240min.gif">top of wedge</a> - PT 1.3770<br />
EURUSD short closed 50% @3R 1.3910 (+1.5R)<br />
CRUDE short 83.65 stop 83.85 PT 81.00<br />
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 83.05 (+1.5R)<br />
AUDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5R) post RBA rate hike<br />
CRUDE stopped out balance 83.40 (+0.5R)<br />
<br />
Open trades:<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span></div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - 1/2 position<br />
<br />
</div></div></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-64191484280456024752010-11-01T12:39:00.000+00:002010-11-01T12:39:04.790+00:00Contrarian signalsBarron's had a interesting cover on Saturday:<br />
Yes, all those money managers who thought the S&P was a sell at 1040 now think that stocks are cheap as the S&P kisses 1200.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TM6zyrAiWlI/AAAAAAAABzQ/LR1vimGO02s/s1600/10-31-10-BarronsCover.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TM6zyrAiWlI/AAAAAAAABzQ/LR1vimGO02s/s320/10-31-10-BarronsCover.gif" width="313" /></a></div>If you are not a Barron's suscriber then you can read a cached version of the article by clicking <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:yFsVxBZyKu8J:online.barrons.com/article/barrons_cover.html+THINGS+ARE+MORE+TOPSY-TURVY+than+ever+on+Wall+Street+this+fall.+barrons&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk"><b>HERE </b></a><br />
It shows big money surprisingly bullish and anytime that there are that many people on one side of the boat we could get nasty corrections.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-87129035108990931502010-10-29T14:25:00.006+01:002010-10-29T19:12:28.504+01:00FridayWell GDP numbers came in OK and now we wait for PMI and consumer sentiment.<br />
While the indices still look bullish but resting it is interesting to see how stocks and the dollar are moving in synch. I think that the dollar can lead at turns and they could move together for several weeks before we see a correction in stocks.<br />
<br />
I am watching this diamond top set up in EURUSD (4hr chart):<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMrLAK20-cI/AAAAAAAABzM/yiKvBd5p4uM/s1600/eurusd+240min.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMrLAK20-cI/AAAAAAAABzM/yiKvBd5p4uM/s200/eurusd+240min.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
I am not expecting much follow through on moves today with big news next week (election, FOMC, NFP).<br />
Have great weekends<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Crude short 82.00 stop 82.30 PT 80.00<br />
Crude closed 50% @3R 81.10 (+1.5R)<br />
SILVER stopped out (-1R)<br />
AUDCAD closed 50% @3R 0.9910 (+1.5R)</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Open trades:</div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span></div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">AUDCAD short 1.0045 stop 1.009, 1st PT 0.985 - 1/2 position</div></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-67417451570671792272010-10-28T04:58:00.008+01:002010-10-28T18:14:53.436+01:00ThursdayIt's a Pomo day and I am watching to see how high the risk bounces go. I am still in sell rally mode. <br />
Probably not doing much for the rest of the week.<br />
<br />
Famous last words, sold some crude and watching AUDCAD<br />
Crude balance of yest short stopped out 82.25 (-0.5R)<br />
Crude short 82.40 stop 82.70 PT 81.50<br />
AUDCAD short 1.0045 stop 1.009, 1st PT 0.985<br />
USDCAD stopped out (-1R)<br />
Crude short closed 50% @3R 81.50 (+1.5R)<br />
Crude stopped out balance @1R 82.10 (+0.5R)<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Open trades:</div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">SILVER short 23.95 stop 24.30 target 22.25</div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-71798806435238833782010-10-27T06:15:00.000+01:002010-10-27T06:15:16.487+01:00AUDCADAUD respects the 88.6 fib ratio number. If you put AUDUSD on a high time frame chart you will see what I mean and it works in all the AUD crosses as well.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMe1UQhn-oI/AAAAAAAABy8/SbqXp8AcJME/s1600/audcad+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMe1UQhn-oI/AAAAAAAABy8/SbqXp8AcJME/s200/audcad+daily.gif" width="200" /></a></div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMVCYUvi2kI/AAAAAAAAByU/Pu_2PsR6lzk/s1600/audcad+monthly.gif">On Monday I posted a chart of the monthly AUDCAD </a> chart showing that AUDCAD looked to have broken up above long term resistance that I was watching for a sell signal. Weaker than expected CPI numbers tonight for Australia has sent this pair shanking and it now does look like a neat short setup. A rejection at the 88.6fib (2004 highs to 2008 lows) and the big trendline and two equal corrective swings off the 6 June lows.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-36986686293045787202010-10-27T04:30:00.005+01:002010-10-27T19:19:47.232+01:00WednesdayNot around today until later on Wednesday but a few charts and will update later in the day.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMecfsNTI1I/AAAAAAAABy0/SKw-qyathmA/s1600/usdcad+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMecfsNTI1I/AAAAAAAABy0/SKw-qyathmA/s200/usdcad+daily.gif" width="200" /></a></div>I added a trade in USDCAD tonight, long on the breakout of this triangle/wedge with a target of the upper trendline where there will be two symmetrical moves off the lows (AB=CD).<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMekUp-9AHI/AAAAAAAABy4/_4ilF6-s2V4/s1600/s&p+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMekUp-9AHI/AAAAAAAABy4/_4ilF6-s2V4/s200/s&p+daily.gif" width="200" /></a></div>S&P daily chart<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Mondays candle was a bearish shooting star, Tuesdays candle was a bearish hanging man and we are now set to retest the lower channel trendline. A break below this suggests a correction back to 1150 initially</span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>There is apparently a big option barrier in EURUSD at 1.38 which China is expected to defend. My EUR shorts might not go so well today, we shall see.<br />
SILVER has made two equal corrective swings higher so I am short again and GOLD looks ready to rollover again also.<br />
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<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">USDCAD long 1.0250 stop 1.0220 target 1.05-1.0550<br />
SILVER short 23.95 stop 24.30 target 22.25<br />
CRUDE short 81.95 stop 82.25 PT 80.00<br />
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 81.05 (+1.5R)<br />
USDCAD has stalled 2 pips short of my 3R target ... annoying<br />
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</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Open trades:</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-51088372079241351502010-10-26T14:46:00.000+01:002010-10-26T14:46:55.927+01:00USDJPY & 10YR yield<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMbYHQ2Tx9I/AAAAAAAAByo/xgVXCWodk_s/s1600/us+10yr+yield.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMbYHQ2Tx9I/AAAAAAAAByo/xgVXCWodk_s/s200/us+10yr+yield.gif" width="200" /></a></div>Big break of the descending trendline from April. This is what the 30yr yield did just before they sold off. This is positive for USDJPY.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMbZIcN3BGI/AAAAAAAABys/LZkEQDxTQ6w/s1600/usdjpy+4hr.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMbZIcN3BGI/AAAAAAAABys/LZkEQDxTQ6w/s200/usdjpy+4hr.gif" width="200" /></a></div>USDJPY 4hr chart, back in the wedge it broke from yesterday, if it keeps support at 81.00 this could be a good countertrend swing. If it stays positive this week then weekly will be a good hammer candle too. Obvious first resistance is at 83.00.<br />
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-22532810316265578562010-10-26T05:24:00.007+01:002010-10-26T22:28:04.177+01:00Tuesday 25 OctoberThe shooting star daily candle in the S&P is interesting, having cleared out stops above the resistance level. I have the bigger resistance, the 1.618 fib extension at at 1198. I am still leaning towards a shallow correction in stocks, a bigger correction in gold and bonds (esp the long bond) and a big bounce for the USD dollar.<br />
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Big news today is UK GDP - forecast is for +0.4% q/q vs last quarters +1.2%. I think the trade here is in EURGBP (even though I have had one false start trying to short this).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZMSpcsxpI/AAAAAAAAByc/hgU9k8aOaC4/s1600/eurgbp+weekly.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZMSpcsxpI/AAAAAAAAByc/hgU9k8aOaC4/s200/eurgbp+weekly.gif" width="200" /></a></div>Weekly chart:<br />
Now at the big 50fib retracement from the December 2008 highs and June 2010 lows it is also at major trendline resistance. I still like this short even though pundits are now talking about parity again for EURGBP, this is a big fib level and big trendline and at the very least we get a bounce here.<br />
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Also this morning is the Riksbank rate decision. Sweden has already made two 25bps rate hikes since the crisis and made it clear it will hike again. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZQCVVyIyI/AAAAAAAAByg/99P2IWLpBm0/s1600/eursek+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZQCVVyIyI/AAAAAAAAByg/99P2IWLpBm0/s200/eursek+daily.gif" width="200" /></a></div>EURSEK weekly candle was a bearish shooting star and the 6 week bear flag has broken down setting up a retest of the lows at the downside measured move and fibonacci target is 8.920.<br />
Having said that I think this hike is priced in and this chart is setting up a bullish gartley pattern and so I am watching for the bounce and price action back at 9.22 and a retest of the trendline to see if this is a trade. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZXgxEa5KI/AAAAAAAAByk/iuifMqcISgs/s1600/eursgd+daily.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMZXgxEa5KI/AAAAAAAAByk/iuifMqcISgs/s200/eursgd+daily.gif" width="200" /></a></div>Finally EURSGD is an interesting chart.<br />
Daily chart shows two equal swings off the lows and stalled at a 1.27fib extension, the tight trading range of the last two weeks looks like it is about to break down. I was looking for a retest of the SR level at 1.8580 but if this range breaks down then downside targets are 1.7480 and then a retest of the lows.<br />
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New trade:<br />
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 0.8530<br />
Crude short 82.20 stop 82.50 PT 81.30 - will close at US open - POMO day<br />
Crude closed break even<br />
AUDUSD closed at target 0.9830 just before POMO (+3.3%)<br />
EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70<br />
USDCHF closed 50% @3R 0.9800 (+1.5R)<br />
EURGBP closed 50% @3R 0.8770(+1.5R)<br />
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Open trades:<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position</span><br />
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2880006569955813536.post-71596219106308113032010-10-25T15:43:00.007+01:002010-10-26T21:39:11.760+01:00More charts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMWWJ-Yr4NI/AAAAAAAAByY/jw7CySWnSfo/s1600/audchf+weekly.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;"><img border="0" height="101" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/TMWWJ-Yr4NI/AAAAAAAAByY/jw7CySWnSfo/s200/audchf+weekly.gif" width="200" /></span></span></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">AUDCHF weekly breakout</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Upside targets are 1.0480 and 1.0950 this swing</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Trades:</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Crude short 83.10 stop 83.40 target 81.80</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Crude closed 50% @3R 82.20 (+1.5R)</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Crude closed balance @81.80 target (+2.1R)</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">AUDUSD short 9965 stop 1.05 PT 9830 - AB=CD and 88.6fib</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - hourly wedge breakout</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1