Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Back in a few weeks

I just found out I am definately moving so I am taking a break from trading for a couple of weeks.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Monday 09 November

I am very behind.  I spent the weekend with a flurry of activity selling my house and it looks like I might be moving in 3 weeks (fingers crossed) so no time to look at charts this weekend and I am taking some time off to pack.

CRUDE short balance closed 79.10 (+2.91%)
No Open Positions:

Friday, November 6, 2009

Friday 06 November 2009 NFP

If anyone is wondering why someone who owns a private jet charter company is trading full time then this news from NetJets might help to explain. I am no fan of fractional ownership but these guys are the biggest fish in the pond, have the lowest operating costs and if they are not making it then no one is. More aviation companies in the US have failed this year than banks and thats saying something.

Slept in this morning for NFP day and then got up for the shocking headline CAD employment numbers (so much for green shoots) although beneath the numbers it was not that bad.  My AUDCAD short not looking so pretty.

I have two small positions running, short crude and AUDCAD and if I don't like what happens after NFP I might take the rest of the day off.

GBPJPY short 149.85 stop 150.35
CRUDE addition 78.99 stop 79.29
CRUDE addition closed 77.00- trendline support (+6.63%)
GBPJPY closed 149 - dbl bottom (+1.7%)
AUDCAD balance stopped out (-0.5%)

Open Positions:

CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Thursday 05 November 2009

I am struggling with charts this morning.  Technically a failed breakout should produce a powerful reversal move and technically EURUSD broke the daily ascending trendline from the lows and then yesterdays FOMC moves put it back above it.  This failed breakout (down) should be strongly bullish but it is weak, back below support and so the ECB rate decision today should be the decider.  This failed breakout scenario applies for a lot of the charts including sterling ... also rate decision today.  I am speculatively short but will cut trades if the decisions go against me. 

S&P has broken daily support line but climbed up the underside of it yesterday and failed to close above after the FOMC.  There is minor support from a more recent trendline but the price action and break of the more significant support line says more downside to come ...  However until the other support line is broken another run up to test the 1075 area is not out of the question.

And gold is trending beautifully, channel is looking good:

Asian session last night:
EURJPY short 134.65 stop 135.05
AUDJPY short 82.35 stop 82.75
NZDJPY short 65.60 stop 65.85
GBPJPY short 150.20 stop 150.60
I have decided to close a lot of positions, EURUSD is looking bullish as are the indices and the dollar could take another dip.  Will review again after rate statements.
USDCHF long closed 1.01665 trendline break (+1.16%)
AUDUSD short closed 0.9063 trendline break (+1.83%)
EURJPY short closed 133.75 (+2.25%)
NZDJPY short closed 65.00 (+2.4%)
AUDJPY closed 81.85 trendline break (+1.0%)
GBPJPY closed 149.20 trendline break (+2.5%)
EURUSD 26Oct closed balance 148.55 (+2.08%)
GBPUSD closed 1.6506 (+1.0%)

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Wednesday 04 November 09

I'm having a pretty cautious morning.  I have a lot of positions on and I am riding some retracements, braveheart style but the volatility is not so much fun.  The FOMC statement this afternoon is the big news of the day and I am not sure I will do much until then.

GBPJPY (Fri) stopped out balance 149.50 (+0.5%)
EURGBP short 89.50 stop 89.70 break of support
CRUDE short 80.21 stop 80.61 - addition see chart below
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30 - off 150 level (again)
AUDJPY closed 82.10 (+2.14%)
EURJPY closed 133.72 (+2.47%)
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 80.21 stop 80.41 - trying again
CRUDE addition closed 80.11 - stocks rallying hard (+0.5%)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCHF balance stopped out (-0.5%)
Post FOMC:
USDCHF long 1.01433 stop 1.01233
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9148
GBPUSD short 1.6556 stop 1.6606

Crude is at the top of my channel - breakout or range trade ?  The SnP is at the 61.8fib of the last swing ...

Same with a lot of currency pairs too - here is cable 4hr:

And EURUSD at trendline, 50fib and underside of daily rising trendline from below:

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Tuesday 03 November 2009

Well we survived yesterdays full moon :)  The only thing that is certain at the moment is the volatility. 
The indices are at key levels on trendline support from the March lows and there seems to be quite a battle raging.  The Dow Transportation Av and Russell 2000 have clearly broken the support lines, and have double topped.  Overseas the Nikkei has broken out and the Dax has broken from the bull channel.  The others are putting up a fight now.
EURUSD sitting on similar trendline support needs to break out to show the way.  At this point I would not be surprised if the market rallies setting up some shorts for NFP and I am prepared to cut my positions and re-enter if that happens.
Because today is ..... "Turnaround Tuesday"

I left an order short last night for NZDJPY which was filled.  The weekly has broken the rising trendline support from the lows.
Today I will sell Cable, AUDUSD on breaks of support lines and look to add to my existing positions if the indices look weak.

NZDJPY short 64.99 stop 65.19 - see chart
GBPUSD short 1.6349 stop 1.6389 - hourly trendline break
AUDUSD short 0.8998 stop 0.9028 - hourly trendline break
CRUDE short 77.98 stop 78.38 - addition
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 76.78 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR 0.8938 (+1.5%)
NZDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDUSD stopped out balance (-0.5%)

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170

Monday, November 2, 2009

Monday 02 November 2009

Lots of PMI data this morning but the big news comes later in the week.  Seems very quiet after the big moves in Asia overnight and I am expecting some retracements after the big moves on Friday, but looking for some breakouts.
I am riding out the retraces with my shorts in crude, EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY.

AUDUSD short 0.9028 stop 0.9048 trendine break
GBPUSD short 1.6445 stop 1.6480 hourly trendline break
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.6355 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY short 148 stop 148.35 - addition
EURJPY short 133.25 stop 133.45 addition 50fib retrace
USDJPY short 90.00 stop 90.15 - 1hr trendline break
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 146.95 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 77.95 stop 78.30 - addition
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 76.95 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6337 stop 1.6372 - addition, 1hr trendline break
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY addition balance stopped out (+1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
The ISM numbers that were slightly better than expected ate all my stops ... :(
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170, hourly IB off the lows
CRUDE short 78.40, stop 78.75, rejection of 50fib last swing
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 77.35 (+1.5%)
CRUDE addition balance closed 77.55 (+1.21%)
GBPUSD closed 1.640 (+0.64%)
USDCHF long banked 50% @3xR 1.0250 (+1.5%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30
USDCHF long 1.0190 stop 1.0170

Friday, October 30, 2009

Friday 30 October 2009

Lots of US news later might mean a slow start until the US opens ... I am watching silver for possibilities of shorts ...

EURUSD short 1.4835 stop 1.4855 - addition
CRUDE short 79.84 stop 80.19 - break of overnight lows
AUDCAD addition (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30, break of 150 level
AUDJPY banked 50% @3xR 82.61 (+1.5%)
EURJPY banked 50% @3xR 134.50 (+1.5%)
EURUSD addition banked 50% @3xR 1.4775 (+1.5%)
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 78.79 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 1.4870 (+1.5%)
USDCHF long 1.0237 stop 1.0207, 1hr IB (DIBS)
CRUDE addition balance banked 77.35 (+3.55%)
EURUSD addition closed 1.4730 (+2.62%)
USDCHF closed 1.0255 (+0.6%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Thursday 29 October 2009

S&P daily chart, X marks the spot:

AUDUSD closed balance 90.05 (+1.41%)
AUDCAD addition (Wed) stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.6466 stop 1.6506 50% of weekly shooting star
GBPJPY closed 150.15 (+0.5%)
EURJPY closed 133.40 (+6.85%)
AUDJPY closed 81.80 (+3.86%)
USDJPY closed 90.80 (+2.22%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
I closed all the JPY trades when they broke out of the descending channels.
Asian session:
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21, rejection of 84.00
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10 -rejection of 136
AUDCAD short 0.9768 stop 0.98.03 - addition

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2) + 0.9768 stop 0.98.03
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Wednesday 28 October 2009

I went short USDJPY last night on the break of this trendline and support now resistance at 92.35

EURUSD short 1.4817 stop 1.4847 IB off prev support @ 1.4840
AUDCAD short 0.9719 stop 0.9739 - addition
GBPUSD short 1.6325 stop 1.6345, break of 1hr trendline
USDJPY banked 50% @3xR 91.09 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out - stop too tight (-1.0%)
EURUSD addition closed 1.47 support (+3.9%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR (+1.5%)
CRUDE (Weds) addition closed 78.00 support (+3.75%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010  (1/2)
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855 (1/2)
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2) & 0.9719 stop 0.9739
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89 (1/2)
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158 (1/2)

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Tuesday 26 October

The big risk off moves yesterday moved some products out of congestion ranges.

Gold is interesting for a pullback, a 50% retrace of the daily marabuzo is 1046 and I would look for price action to short.

I like Crude to continue south on a break of this support line (4hr chart): with a target of $75
EURUSD is consolidating above key support at 1.4840 and needs to break this level for my view to change to bearish.  I am holding my short.    Likewise USDCHF (chart left) needs to break 1.02 and upper trendline to get me long and AUDUSD 91.10 support to get me short.    USDCAD has broken key resistance at 1.0680 but until some more pairs break key levels it is just a countertrend pullback.

I am also watching the SnP to break a rising trendline from the March lows (daily chart):

Finally ... check out this level on AUDCAD:

AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 - see above chart
AUDUSD short 0.9180 stop 0.9220 4hr Shooting Star
EURJPY short 136.96 stop 137.26 - addition
CRUDE short 79.50 stop 79.90 - off 50fib retrace
GOLD short 1037.60 stop 1039.60 - break of support
EURUSD short 1.4838 stop 1.4858 - addition
EURUSD addition closed 1.4798 (+2%)
EURJPY addition closed 135.80 (+3.86%)
AUDCAD banked 50% @3xR 97.45 (+1.5%)
GOLD short stopped out  (-1.0%)
AUDUSD closed 91.35 dbl bottom (+1.8%)
Asian session:
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89 - break of support
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158, target 0.9030 / 0.8980

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 & 79.50 stop 79.90
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158

Monday, October 26, 2009

Monday 26 October 2009

Asian session:
GBPJPY short 149.92 stop 150.32 break of 150 support - addition
GBPCHF short 1.6425 stop 1.6455 hourly IB (DIBs)
EURJPY short 137.98  stop 138.38 - break of 138 support
USDCAD (Fri) banked 50% @3xR 1.0536 (+1.5%)
GBPAUD short 1.7675 stop 1.7705 1hr IB (DIBs)
USDJPY long balance closed 91.65 (+1.5%)
London session:
GBPUSD (Fri) closed 1.6318 (+1.%)
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 80.10 stop 80.50 - addition 50fib last swing
US Session:
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short (Fri) balance stopped out 80.60 (+0.5%)
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPAUD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short (Fri) closed 150.32 (+2.47%)
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 tweezer top
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 break of Fri low
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855 - trying again
CRUDE short addition 79.50 stop 79.80, break of Fri low
GBPUSD short 1.6364 stop 1.6394
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
CRUDE addition closed 78.60 (+3%)
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85 trendline break
EURUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.4890 (+1.5%)
EURJPY banked 50% @3xR 137.15 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out again (-1.0%)

OK - I am not overtrading ... I have just been busy, really.

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Analysis and some charts, Sunday 25 October 2009

So Sterling took a beating Friday with negative GDP forecast when a positive one was expected. Prospects for more quantitative easing are increasing and prospects of a rate hike move even further out. Often Sunday nights / Monday morning the trend of Friday continues before being re-evaluated in the US session or on Turnaround Tuesday (aargh). Let’s see.

Event risks this week are US GDP and consumer confidence numbers, RBNZ rate announcement and AUD consumer prices.

Despite its strong downtrend the US Dollar was the strongest of the majors on Friday as the S&P, gold and oil and risk-on trades faltered. Lower time frames suggest the dollar index could stage a counter-trend correction going into this week. It has built a strong base against USDJPY. Weekly candle is a hammer type off the 75 level, the daily is a bullish confirmation of Thursday’s inverted hammer and the 4hrly shows a double bottom off 75 suggesting good support at this level or a counter-trend rally is possible.

Indices. The trend is bullish, but markets faltered for a second week. The S&P made new highs but failed to pass the important 1100 level and then pulled back to a weekly spinning top following on last weeks doji. The Dow broke 10000 but has resistance off the 1060 level and has formed a countertrend weekly shooting star. The S&P needs to close below 1075 to confirm more downside correction or above 1100 to confirm a breakout of this range.

Crude. Weekly doji, daily big bearish engulfing marabuzo following an inverted shooting star. Crude broke out of its bull flag Wednesday and broke the 80 level out of step with the indices. It looks to have just broken a rising trendline Friday afternoon which kept me in my short instead of closing it and I am watching for more confirmation of a countertrend pullback as we start the week. My short target is 75, a 50% retrace of this months high/lows and resistance becomes support off the September high, but I realise this is countertrend and we may not get that far.  Failure to break the prev low at 77.61 and I will step aside. 4hr chart -

Gold put in a weekly bearish shooting star type inside bar following a similar candle last week makes gold look toppy with two tight range weeks. It’s in a strong uptrend but stalled with a possible bull flag forming so I would like to see the 1024 level retested successfully before I got long, or a decisive break above 1075.

Silver has a bullish weekly inside bar and a much better looking bullflag forming. Like gold I would buy a dip or a break of the flag / weekly IB.

AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bearish doji and daily is a sideways bull flag off the May 08 swing low at 0.9275. AUDUSD is well bid and next resistance is 0.9350 – the August 08 swing high, a break of this level and the 08 swing highs of 0.9850 are in range. 0.910 support looks strong at the moment and I would not be tempted to trade this countertrend above that level …

AUDJPY – uptrend - Weekly bullish and daily doji (pause). After breaking out long two weeks ago AUDJPY has been trading in a steep channel. It is presently at the top of that channel and I expect a pullback here. A break below 83.90 and I would be looking for support at 82.00 (also 50fib) for a long entry.

NZDUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, made new yearly highs, daily bull flag. Next resistance is 0.765 and a break above means a retest of the 08 highs at 0.8215 could be on the cards. I would not consider a countertrend short without a break below 0.7480 and target first resistance at 0.7310

NZDJPY – uptrend – Weekly and daily strong bullish continuation, this pair is approaching key resistance and 50fib level at 91.00 and I am watching price action here for direction.

AUDNZD – Pass – haha there are much better opportunities out there, unless the RBNZ rate announcement surprises …

USDCAD – downtrend - Weekly bullish continuation of last weeks countertrend hammer, daily is inside bar in a tightening range / flag. I am countertrend long this pair, looking for price action at 1.06 / 1.0650 for price action to reverse with the trend or continue.

CADJPY – rangebound - weekly is bullish continuation, daily is bullish continuation but well below the highs of the week and I would not be surprised to see more downside correction. I would pass on this one; there are better opportunities out there.

EURNZD – downtrend - Weekly hammer type candle at new lows, daily bearflags this pair is in a step climb down and a sell on rallies. 

GBPAUD – downtrend – weekly bearish, daily bearish marabuzo. Price is moving back with the trend after a modest pullback. Sell on rallies until the trend changes looking for a break of the previous low at 1.73.

GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish shooting star has closed back below a descending trend line that it broke up from, daily bearish marabuzo. This is a sell on rallies or a break of Friday lows with my targets 1.62, 1.61 and a break of 1.61 suggests a retest of the lows. Cable appears to be trading a range between 1.6735 and 1.5780 and is today trading mid range and at June 01st levels … which suggests the range is right where someone wants it.

GPBJPY – downtrend – Weekly long legged doji, daily bearish engulfing off descending trend line and a close back below the 50fib of the Aug highs and September lows.  I am short and have an order to add on a break of the 150 level. My targets are 147 and 145.50

GBPCHF – downtrend – Weekly sideways consolidation / bearflag in strong downtrend. I am a seller of rallies looking for this to retest the lows and 1.61 and continue down.

EURGBP – uptrend – Weekly bullish hammer type candle, daily bullish marabuzo off the 90.00 level. Possible head and shoulders forming. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.

EURUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, daily sideways consolidation at 150 level with rallies extending to 150.60. Key support is 1.4830 and next resistance at 1.5185 and then 1.5240 (78.6fib retracement of the highs to lows).

EURJPY – sideways - weekly bullish continuation, daily bullish continuation. This pair is at key resistance (138.75), triple top and my favourite trade for a reversal. I will try and sell this level because I think the R:R is pretty good, targeting the bottom of the range at 129.75 which is also trend line and fib resistance. Resistance is at 136, 135.50 and 134.40. A break above 138.75 is a big range breakout for this pair and I would buy a pullback and retest of this level.

EURCHF - sideways – Pass.

USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily consolidating at new 2009 lows just above the parity level 1.00 Trend is still strongly bearish and the consolidation right above the level suggests a break or test below could be not far off. 1.003 is the low and 1.0037 is the 100% fib extension of the drop so a bounce is possible also.

USDJPY – Up trend – Weekly bullish continuation, daily continuation with key resistance at 92 – 92.55. I am long but have tightened my stop as a reversal to the longer term down trend is not out of the question at this level.

USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish inside bar, daily bearish consolidation above the 5.50 level. This has come a long way without correction but is still a sell on rallies or a break of the 5.50 level.

USDSGD - downtrend - weekly inside bars, daily sideways consolidation below the 1.40 level support broken at the beginning of the month. Price is in a range between 1.40 and 1.3850 for the past three weeks and I am watching for a breakout trade.

USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend – weekly & daily sideways consolidation above the August 08 lows at 7.20. I still like this long if the indices correct down and the dollar rallies. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am still watching for a break of the descending weekly resistance line.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Friday 23 October

I have been really slow with the blog this week.  I have not been trading so much either, normal service will be resumed next week.
I stuck a USDCAD long on last night because it looked really good as I was going to bed and it worked.
This morning, before the UK GDp news came out I was getting so excited about the weekly trendline on GBPJPY and shorting it off the 1.53 price and fib level, I completely forgot about my EURGBP short!
Anyhow I had an order for GJ short that got triggered on the ugly GDP news and that has paid for my error forgetting EURGBP.

USDCAD long 1.0476 stop 1.0456 target 1.059
EURGBP balance stopped out (-0.5%)
GBPJPY short 152.79 stop 1.5329 target 146 & 141
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 151.29 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 81.00 stop 81.40, break of support, target 80
GBPUSD short 1.6368 stop 1.6418 hourly IB (DIBS)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 80.00 (+1.25%)

Open positions:
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45
GBPJPY short 152.79 stop 1.5329
CRUDE short 81.00 stop 81.40
GBPUSD short 1.6368 stop 1.6418
USDCAD long 1.0476 stop 1.0456

GBPJPY weekly

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Thursday 22 October

Slow trading day for me as I have to be in the city most of today and I don't want a load of positions I have to worry about. 
I am watching the level that GBPCHF is bouncing off and wondering whether my EURGBP was so smart after all.  Stop is paid for so will leave it for now.

GBPUSD short 1.6570 stop 1.6610 break of overnight support
CRUDE closed 80.00, 50% retrace of daily marabuso (3.75%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)

Open positions:
EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Wednesday 21 October

I am holding short on Crude, Gold expecting some more sell off today,  It is hard to see a setup in currencies that I like except perhaps the daily EURGBP short & USDJPY long (will post a chart later).  USDCAD a buy on dips and the flag building up on EURJPY.

EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15 target 89.00
GBPUSD (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD short 1059 stop 1060 - addition @50fib retrace
CRUDE short 78.90 stop 79.15 - addition, rejection of $79
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45 - 4hr hammer
EURGBP banked 50% @3xR 90.15 (+1.5%)
GOLD addition banked 50% @3xR 1056 (+1.5%)
USDCAD long 1.0530 stop 1.0480 break of resistance
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 78.15 (+1.5%)
EURUSD (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
EURJPY long 1.3609 stop 1.3579, flag breakout
GOLD addition closed 1055 market reversal (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out - fakeout breakout (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 79.50 stop 79.80 Bearish inventories - addition
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD (yesterday) closed 1058 (0.6%)
CRUDE balance stopped out (-0.5%)
EURJPY closed 136.69 (+2%) - equities sell off
GBPJPY short 151.31 stop 1.5157 - dbl top @50fib level
CRUDE short 81.50 stop 81.80 1hr BEOB target 80
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

I completely screwed the execution of the crude trades today, I was too slow to move my stops and protect profit.

Open positions:
EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45
CRUDE short 81.50 stop 81.80

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Tuesday October 20th

Time to get back to work ...

Cable is right at that level for me.  1.64500 and a descending trendline that goes back to the July08 swing high.  After a monster rally for sterling against everything it might be time for ... Turnaround Tuesday!!!

Crude broke out last week of a long time bull flag and has put in a 13day rally, almost a record. Interestingly much of the move at the end of last week when equities were falling off and the dollar was gaining some ground.  Inventories last week were not that bullish, a big drop in gasoline at a time when the refineries output is almost at post-hurricane levels because of seasonal maintenance.  Perhaps a short squeeze, I might be looking for a cheeky countertrend short here.  Or a pullback to buy ...  Price has broken 80, let's see if it can hold above.  Today could be volatile with inventories (expecting a drop) and the last day of the Nov contract.

GBPUSD short 1.6430 stop 1.6460
GBPJPY short 147.99 stop 1.4839 1hr bearish engulfing
CRUDE short 79.90 stop 80.30 target 79.40 & rising support line ...
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURGBP short 0.9099 stop 0.9119, bear flag break
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 78.70 (+1.5%)
GOLD short 1061 stop 1066 - I am loading up
EURUSD short 1.4950 stop 1.4990, 4hr IB - dollar rally
GBPUSD short 1.6365 stop 1.6405, 4hr SS & trendline break
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)

EURGBP daily and 4hr charts:

Crude chart:

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Thursday 16 October

I am taking a couple of days off so just sorting out some positions before I do.
Good trading!

GBPUSD balance of short (1.6090) closed @1.6030 break of resist (+0.75%)
GBPUSD balance of short (1.6399) closed @ 1.6030 break of resist (+5.27%)
GBPCHF balance of short (1.6437) closed @ 1.6280 (+2.18%)
USDNOK balance of short (5.6360) closed @ 5.5236 (+2.81%)

Open Positions - none

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Wednesday 14 October

Crude just made new highs for the year and all the commodity currencies are at new highs along with the S&P. 
My cable position is looking vulnerable as USD weakness continues.  Price has bounced of the weekly 1.57 level and although it's too early for a bullish reversal I am waiting to see what happens when 1.60 is tested from underneath to re-evaluate.
USDJPY is indecisive and the bullish correction is stalling which is holding down GBPJPY so holding short there.  GBPCHF remains bearish but consolidating.
USDCHF looks to have good bearish momentum with support at 1.0166 before the big 1.000 level
EURUSD is strongly bullish after a pennant breakout overnight and my key support is 1.48 so I will watch price action at a pullback to there.
The commodity currencies are buys on dips ...

CRUDE short 74.88 stop 75.08 - countertrend
GBPAUD short 1.7448 stop 1.7508 target 1.7325
USDNOK banked 50% @3xR 5.5760 (+1.5%)
GBPAUD stopped out - employment news (-1.0%)
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF short 1.6235 stop 1.6260, Ihr IB target 1.6115
GBPCHF addition stopped out (-1.5%)

-1.5% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58
USDNOK short 5.636

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Tuesday 13 October 2009

EURNZD short 1.9998 stop 2.0068 target last weeks low 198.37 first
GBPAUD short 1.7375 stop 1.7425 target 1.70
GBPUSD short 1.5761 stop 1.5801 - bear flag break see chart below
GBPAUD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURNZD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY (Mon) stopped out breakeven

That's that, I am limit down and no more trading today!
The holiday yesterday confused me.  Today is "Turnaround Tuesday" and look what happened.

Cable 1hr

-3.0% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58
USDNOK short 5.636

In happier news some little people ate their first real meal today, and got very messy:

Monday, October 12, 2009

Monday October 12 - Holiday

I am taking a holiday today so just checking in to update my trades and will be back tomorrow.

GBPCHF banked 50% @3xR 1.6329 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (02Oct) short balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CRUDE (08Oct) short balance stopped out (-0.5%)
USDCAD short 1.0380 stop 1.0405 target 1.0320
USDCAD closed 1.0335 - will wait for a better entry (+1.8%)
GBPJPY short 142.48, stop 142.78 , 1st target 141 (see chart below)
USDNOK short 5.636 stop 5.656 anticipating a break of Fri lows ...

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58

What I am watching:
A break of this pennant in GBPJPY:
4hr chart

A break of the 2.00 level in EURNZD:
daily chart

It's Thanksgiving and my friend Stacy came over and helped feed puppies so I could cook turkey.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Charts and analysis, 11 October 2009

Risk appetite seems to be growing this week as the commodity (risk) currencies all made new highs for the year and the dollar broke a key weekly support at 76 although clawing back at the end of the week. Stocks are on the verge of new highs, gold is already at new highs and crude looks set to retake the $75 level. Exuberance everywhere, except for the poor old Pound.

USD index weekly has a weekly bullish hammer and the tails of the last few weeks suggest some support at the 76 level although it was breached this week and recovered. After two weeks of sideways consolidation for the dollar the decline appeared to accelerate again this week. Shorter term it managed to rally Friday bit only a break above last weeks high of 77.25 would suggest a short term bottom at the 76 level.

Indices – all had strong bullish weeks. The S&P broke out of a daily bull flag forming since the September highs and is all set to retest them, the Dax, Nikkei, CAC, FTSE all found support off a daily rising trend-line and are set to retest the highs. I would be hoping for a double top bounce down but the trend is clearly up …

Crude – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, daily bullish inside bar. Price is at the top of the descending bull flag range and had a bullish week on the back of a weak dollar and a more positive demand forecast than we have had for a while and despite trade date showing US petroleum imports at a 3 month low. . I am waiting to see if it breaks out of the channel or if the upper range limit holds.

Gold – uptrend - weekly bullish marabuzo but daily hammer followed by an inside bar. Gold faced some selling pressure Friday as the dollar rallied off its weekly lows following Bernanke comments that the US interest rate may rise sooner than expected. Gold is only at new yearly highs versus the USD and the price is only a result of USD weakness. Against the Australian dollar Gold is 25% off the February highs. Gold seems to have been a hedge against the dollar drop and so any reversal in the dollar makes gold vulnerable.
I would not short the daily shooting star of Thursday but instead would buy on price action on a retrace to the 50fib and previous resistance at $1024.

Silver – uptrend - has lagged gold but still at new highs for the year in USD terms. Like gold it is a buy on dips and I am looking for price action at a 50fib retrace to 16.80 and watching keeping an eye on the dollar index for direction.

AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish marabuzo breakout took Aussie to new highs and above the psychological 90.00 level, daily inside bar with almost no retrace the Aussie is the strongest of all the major currencies and a buy on dips. Price is sitting on the centerline of a rising channel from the January lows. Resistance levels are 92.00 (04.14/08 low) 92.80 (May 08 low) and 93.24 (June 08 low). Only a pullback below 85.65 and previous swing low would suggest a top.

AUDJPY – uptrend – Price has broken out from a long time range and above significant 80.00 level (although still below August highs) so this is a buy on dips. Support should be strong at or just above the 80.00 breakout level and I would buy on price action.

NZDUSD – uptrend – Same pattern as the AUDUSD, strongly bullish but held below the centerline of the rising channel from the January lows and what was support in June 2008 at 74.44 just below the psychological level of 75.00 which is also the 78.6 fib of the 08 extreme high / lows and for this reason I would pass on this one for now and watch what happens next week.

NZDJPY – uptrend – Weekly strong bullish continuation, daily bullish but still below the highs of two weeks ago. This is a buy on dips for me (I am watching 65.500), target 69.10.

AUDNZD – downtrend – Price is consolidating after an apparent double bottom and has broken up through a descending trendline. I would buy a retest of 1.22 breakout point and then look for price action at 1.24 to sell again. Except I hate this pair almost as much as EURCHF so I will pass!

USDCAD - downtrend - Weekly bearish and daily bearish marabuzo’s price has broken down through psychological support at 1.05. After lagging and being the weakest of the commodity currencies for a while CAD took off this week. It’s a sell on rips target 1.0317 and the 61.8fib extension level. If that level goes then the next support is 1.0270 and the December 07 highs. Only a rally above 1.0670 would change my view to bullish.

CADJPY – Uptrend – weekly bullish marabuzo and breakout of descanding trendline, price broke resistance at 86.07. This is a buy on dips. I would buy on price action retests of support at 84.90, 84.30 and 83.11

EURCAD – downtrend– Weekly and daily bearish and break of rising trendline support. Sell on rallies, or retest of breakout level at 1.56 area

EURNZD - downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation after a weekly doji pause. Daily dropped below the psychological 2.000 level but has rallied back through. Sell a retest of the previous lows 2.0280 from underneath.

NZDCHF - same as EURNZD but opposite ... its a buy.

GBPAUD – strong downtrend – Price is approaching all time low levels and risk of reversal is high but no indication of it yet. Sell on rallies until the trend changes.

GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish inside bar, daily bearish marabuzo this is a sell on rallies, my target is now the 28Sep wick low at 1.5767 and I am looking for a break there to continue further.

GPBJPY – downtrend – Weekly double inside bar and daily consolidates sideways in a bear flag pattern above 1.40. Price broke the neckline at 146.80 and if the pattern holds it could put GBPJPY back in the 120’s. On the daily there is a potential double bottom in place but I am still bearish and sell on rallies. A break of the flag long, above 144.60, and I change to bullish with a target of 1.49 where previous support could become resistance.

GBPCHF – downtrend – Weekly double inside bar, daily bearish marabuzo following a shooting star, price is consolidating in a bear flag pattern above the 61.8fib retracement level. Sell on rallies or break down of the flag, target 1.50

AUDCHF - Uptrend - Weekly and daily stongly bullish marabuzo candles, the weekly taking out the previous week’s long shooting star tail and breaking the range of the past 9 weeks. Buy on dips only.

EURGBP – stong uptrend – Weekly and daily charts are strongly bullish but Friday’s long bullish candle close puts a potential double top in play off the 93 level. I am passing and waiting for more information.

EURUSD – uptrend – Price is consolidating at new highs and a potential short term dbl top is in play however, on the monthly chart EURUSD has put in 6 consecutive higher lows and could be setting up a seventh. Price is above the 61.8fib retracement of the 08/09 high/lows and while 1.50 is psychological resistance the technical resistance is at 1.52. So although the counter trend short off a double top is tempting until the trend changes this is a buy on dips. Above 1.4480 and short term uptrend is intact. Below 1.4175 puts a stop to the consecutive monthly higher lows.

EURJPY – sideways - weekly in the middle of a multi week range, this could be forming a bull flag but I need more information. I’m going to pass for now.

EURCHF - sideways – Pass.

USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bullish hammer in a sideways range, daily could be trying to make a higher low here but like the possible double top in EURUSD it is against a strong trend and not enough information yet. I am watching this one closely though, I prefer to go long USDCHF than short EURUSD. A retest of the 1.055 levels from the underside might show the way.

USDJPY – downtrend – 2nd weekly bullish hammer in a row in a strong longer term downtrend, daily bullish marabuzo. Although this is a strong long term downtrend a corrective bounce is due price is sitting right up against a steep short term descending resistance line.  A break of this line and a possible double bottom could see a move up to 92.50. However I am holding a short targeting 87.00 (although much less confident after the strong buying activity at the option barrier at 88.00)

USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation following a doji pause, daily bearish continuation after again making new lows for the year. This is a sell on rallies or a retest of 5.75 from underneath. Price is coming up on the Jan 08 highs and resistance may become support at 5.62 / 5.578 so watching for price action there.

USDSGD - downtrend - weekly very bearish marabuzo break of previous weeks doji and new lows for the year, daily consolidation sideways in a bear flag pattern. This is a sell on rallies and if price retraces I am looking for price action at 1.4050 area to short.

USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend - weekly sideways bearish, daily could be putting in a double bottom here. I still like this long if the indices correct down and the dollar rallies. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am still watching and waiting ...

Friday, October 9, 2009

Friday 09 October

I am pretty cross with myself today, I missed some good opportunities this week.  I got behind with my analysis and then behind through the week and behind looking at daily charts.  I am looking at some of them now and kicking myself.  Next week will be better.

The dollar index is interesting.  We breached key support at 76 yesterday and then pulled back above it.  How the weekly closes is important now. Below 76 and the dollar is going to find it tough going for a bit but a dollar rally today gives us another weekly hammer off this level.

I am looking at the daily double top in EURUSD and the hourly bearflag off a pivot.  I am not trading it because I would have liked to see it break with some momentum earlier and it is so closely correlated to the indices and every dip is bought that I will probably leave it for today rather than have my shorts eaten in the US session.  I will see. It (and USDCHF) do have some trendline resistance to break as well so I may wait for a break of that and take USDCHF instead.   I did expect more Euro negative statements from Mr Trichet yesterday but it turned into a big fat nothing.  There seems to be very little momentum in the markets this morning, maybe its just me.

GBPUSD short (Thurs) banked 50% @3xR 1.5970 (+1.5%)
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short 142.43 stop 1.4283 - addition, 1hr trendline break
CHFJPY short 86.40 stop 86.70, 1st target 85.50
EURNZD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURNZD (Mon) closed 1.9950 (+3.08%)
CRUDE (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 70.95 (+1.5%)
CHFJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF short 1.6437 stop 1.6473, 1hr bearflag break

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
USDJPY short 89.48
CRUDE short 72.00
GBPCHF short 1.6437

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Thursday 08 October

I'm a little bit late today because I could not see anything I wanted to trade earlier.
Strong moves up in equities and good Aussie employment news powered up the commodity currencies and pulled up EURUSD with it overnight.   Gold chipped in and provided extra power to crush the USD.
Crude is not having any of it so far and is stuck at the 50fib of the last swing hi/lo which is tempting me short.
Cable has just broken 1.6050 but I am still bearish.
I also like the daily double top on EURGBP .... but I am going to sit on my hands and wait for the BoE and ECB rate statements in a couple of hours.
Here is the weekly and daily charts:

USDJPY banked Wed addition (89.15) @ 88.25 (+2.25%)
CRUDE short 70.30 stop 70.60 - addition
EURGBP short 92.10 stop 92.35 off daily dbl top
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.40 (+1.5%)
EURNZD short 1.9951 stop 1.9996 - addition
CRUDE stopped out balance (-0.5%)
CRUDE stopped out balance Weds short (-0.5%)
GBPJPY  Weds short stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY Weds short stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 72.00 stop 72.35 - top of channel
GBPUSD short 1.6090 stop 1.6130, off prev high daily trendline & 50fib

GBPUSD daily chart:

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)  targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURNZD short 2.0320 & 1.9951
USDJPY short 89.48
EURGBP short 92.10
CRUDE short 72.00

PS - Please no more messages about why I have not bought any gold.  Gold is for goldbugs, tinhatters and Trader Dante.  Armageddon is not coming and when it does Gold won't help you. 
Trader Dante -

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Wednesday 07 October

Sterling looks toast today and EUR, CHF and the commodity currencies,  like gold, are stubbornly bullish and a buy on dips.   USDJPY takes her sweet time getting to my targets but looks to do it today.
I am hoping GBPJPY breaks 140 today and wishing I added to this trade :)

The S&P looks to be breaking out from a bullflag to retest the highs, taking out the 61.8fib, daily chart:.
Gold is back at the highs - Not good for the USD

Alternatively the S&P could just be retesting the underside of a support line that it broke before continuing down further ... hmmmm
Scenario three of course is that we just sit here today and wait for earnings season to kick off tonight with Alcoa ....

Here is a 4hr crude chart, I am waiting for it to show its hand.  A weak dollar should pop it out of this channel but it doesn't want to go.  I have not placed any new trades today, I really am waiting to see.  I just don't get Gold.

It looks as though we may have a double bottom or at least some support in the dollar index ... 1 hr chart:

USDJPY (05 Oct) banked 50% @3xR 88.58 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF (02 Oct) closed balance 1.6370 (+1.7%)
NZDJPY (04 Oct) closed balance 64.90 (+1.16%)
GBPUSD short 1.5895 stop 1.5925 - addition
USDCAD (Tues) balance closed 1.0560 (+0.95%)
CRUDE short 71.20 stop 71.55 target 70 (50fib)
USDJPY short 89.15 stop 89.35, addition @ 61.8fib retracement
GBPJPY short 141.95 stop 142.35, addition off 142 and prev support
EURJPY short 130.50 stop 130.80 target 129
GBPUSD (today) stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short banked 50% @3xR 70.15 (+1.5%)
USDJPY addition banked 50% @3xR 88.55 (+1.5%)

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) + 1.5895 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) & 141.95 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURJPY short 130.50
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48 & 89.15

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Tuesday 06 October

US dollar is being taken to the woodshed a bit today ... The Aussies raised rates 0.25% the first ones to do so and the commodity currencies are catching some bids.  AUDUSD & NZDUSD at new highs and USDCAD sitting on support.  Sterling as usual is lagging ... the indices are rallying.
If the dollar keeps going then crude should break out of this flag but its really not tempting me.

GBPCHF (02Oct) banked 50% @3xR 1.6390 (+1.5%)
AUDUSD balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CRUDE short 71.05, stop 71.55 1hr bearish engulfing
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD short 1.0598 stop 1.0618 break of round number support
CRUDE short 70.97 stop 71.37 - trying again
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0538 (+1.5%)
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)

+0.5% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6540
NZDJPY long 64.27
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48
USDCAD short 1.0598

Monday, October 5, 2009

Monday 05 October

I have not been able to trade much today as life got in the way.  So just managing current trades and I will update and repost analysis tonight.

EURNZD short 2.0320 stop 2.0380 - 4hr IB
CRUDE short (Fri) banked 50% @3xR 68.49 (+1.5%)
NZDJPY long (Sun) banked 50% @3xR 65.08 (+1.5%)
EURNZD short banked 50% @3xR 2.0140 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short (Fri) stopped out balance @ 70.40 (-0.5%)
EURUSD short (30Sep) stopped out balance (-0.5%)
USDJPY short 89.48 stop 89.78 target 87

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6540
AUDUSD short 0.8799
NZDJPY long 64.27
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Sunday 04 October

GBPJPY (Thu) closed balance 142.66 - daily hammer (+0.42%)
USDCAD (Fri) stopped out (-1.0%)
CADJPY (Thu) closed 82.82 - daily hammer (+1.85%)
USDJPY(Thu)  closed 89.50 - daily hammer (+1.0%)
GBPUSD (Fri) addition stopped out (-1.0%)
NZDJPY long 64.27 stop 64.00 - daily bullish piercing line
AUDUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
GBPCHF short 1.6540
AUDUSD short 0.8799
CRUDE short 69.90
NZDJPY long 64.27

Friday, October 2, 2009

Friday October 02, NFP

Many distractions the last 24 hrs ... so I am a bit behind.

AUDJPY short 77.74 stop 78.04 traget 70.00
GBPCHF short 1.6540 stop 1.6590 target 1.6218
CRUDE short 69.90 stop 70.40 target 65.00
EURJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 129.70 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 141.88 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 88.90 (+1.5%)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 68.40 (+1.5%)
EURUSD short 1.4580 stop 1.4605 - addition @ swing 50fib
EURUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD long 1.0847 stop 1.0807 - bullish piercing line candle
AUDUSD short 0.8685 stop 0.8705 - addition
GBPUSD short 1.5882 stop 1.5922 - addition - evening star
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.5935 stop 1.5955 - trying again
USDCAD long 1.0822 stop 1.0792 - trying again
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

I have not managed my positions very well at all today.  I did not expect the sell off after bad NFP to be followed by such a quick reversal.

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5935 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)& 143.08 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
GBPCHF short 1.6540
USDJPY short 89.80
AUDUSD short 0.8799 & 0.8685
CADJPY short 83.93
USDCAD long 1.0822
CRUDE short 69.90

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Thursday 01 October

Tower top and a big trendline break in the SnP today and we have not got to NFP yet!  A correction at last.

USDJPY (30Sep) stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD (30Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.4595 (+1.5%)
AUDUSD short 0.8799 stop 0.8824 countertrend target 0.8724
CADJPY short 83.93 stop 84.23 - see daily chart
CRUDE short 69.98 stop 70.48 - see H4 chart
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR 0.8724 (+1.5%)
CADJPY banked 50% @3xR 83.03 (+1.5%)
USDJPY short 89.80 stop 90.10 target 87.00
EURJPY short 130.60 stop 130.90 news trade
GBPJPY short 143.08 stop 143.48 - addition

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5999 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)& 143.08 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
USDJPY short 89.80
AUDUSD short 0.8799
EURJPY short 130.60
CADJPY short 83.93

Market antidote - chocolate:

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Wednesday 30 September

What an ugly, hard to read day in FX.

USDJPY short 89.67 stop 89.92, target 88.30
CRUDE short 67.05, stop 67.35 break of support
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4655 stop 1.4675 1hr IB off daily resistance line
USDCAD long 1.0734 stop 1.0694 1hr IB off daily support line
CRUDE short 67.45 stop 67.95 on rising dollar ...
GBPUSD short 1.5999 stop 1.6039 - addition break of 1.60
CRUDE closed 66.45 bounce off rising trendline (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)

Flat today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5999 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tuesday 29 September

S&P stalled at the 61.8fib of last weeks hi/lo which does not bode well for the rally continuing today.  Eurodollar which normally moves in lockstep lagged badly in yesterdays indices rally but not enough to tempt me to short it yet :)
I am still bearish sterling and crude.  I am watching USDCAD & CADJPY which are coming up on a 50 retrace of last weeks weekly marabuzos.

GBPUSD short 1.5918 stop 1.5968 - addition
GBPJPY short 143.21 stop 1.4361 - addition
GBPCHF short 1.6433 stop 1.6468 target 1.6220
USDCAD long 1.0830 stop 1.0805 - 50% retrace of weekly candle
CADJPY short 83.10 stop 83.40 - weekly level and 50fib
CRUDE short 66.83 stop 67.13 target 65
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4560 stop 1.4605 DIBS
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
A reversal spike in sterling I'm now limit down :(  stops at breakeven & may as well go back to bed.
EURUSD stopped out BE
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0905 (+1.5%) finally
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 65.95 (+1.5%)
CRUDE balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CADJPY stopped out BE
USDCAD balance closed 1.0870, support line break (+0.8%)
CRUDE short 66.50 stop 66.90 trying again
CRUDE stopped out again overnight (-1.0%)

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139

Monday, September 28, 2009

Monday 28 September

A wild Asian opening ... Sydney program did not run because the opening candle sizes were over the limit (300 on GJ for example).  This morning we have the Merkel bounce in equities, lets see how far it takes us.

Asian session:
SILVER short 15.90, stop 16.15, 4hr inside bar, target 15.00
GBPJPY (addition from 146.37) closed 140.60 (+7.21%)
CRUDE short 65.50 stop 65.90 target 62
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (24Sep) closed 65.85 (+3.18%)
USDJPY short 89.35 stop 89.65 target 87.00
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY short 89.40 stop 89.70 - trying again
GBPCHF short 1.6366 stop 1.6406 target 1.6220
AUDNZD short 1.2131 stop 1.2170 target 1.19
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDNZD stopped out (-1.0%)
I should have stopped trading this morning :(

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139

Cable daily  - I have run out of support lines:

Cable daily alternative ... channel?: