The Nasdaq has hit the 161.8 fib extension of the first rally off the March lows, the S&P has fib resistance at 1196. We could be at or near a level where we get a bounce. The SPY (ETF) had the second lowest volume day of the year Tuesday. The lowest volume day of the year was January 11th which was the top before the February low (not counting Mondays volume as not all markets were open).
I am looking to crude and the indices for a counter-trend short correction and not expecting big moves.
Gold is testing the neckline of the daily head and shoulders. Its one to watch, a good level for a quick short off but if it breaks gold is going much higher. I have seen a lot of head and shoulders patterns fail on gold ..
UPDATE: USDCAD is at the 78.6fib retracement, crude is falling, the dollar is rallying and it has sort of double bottomed. If you are very brave you might want to catch a knife here for a countertrend bounce. I am a chicken and will wait for daily close ... but I like this
GBPJPY short 143.00 stop 143.50 target 141.50
CABLE short 1.52 stop 1.5250 target 1.50 sterling is the dog du jour
EURUSD short 1.3350 stop 1.3380 - addition, break of support
EURJPY short 125.15 stop 125.45 - addition, break of support
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 85.85 (+1.5R)
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9965 target open, looking for break of channel
CABLE stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE closed 25% 85.50 target (+1.04R) holding 1/4
CABLE short (again) 1.5260 stop 1.5285 hourly hanging man tweezer
EURJPY closed 50% @3R 124.25 (+1.5%)
AUDJPY short 86.20 stop 86.80, 1st PT- 84.65, 2nd PT-83.70
Open trades:
NZDUSD short 0.7095 stop 0.7120 - 1/2
NZDJPY short 66.85 stop 67.0 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.35 stop 1.3530 - 1/2 + 1.3350 stop 1.3380
EURJPY short 127.20 stop 127.40 - 1/4 + 125.15 stop 125.45 - 1/2
EURAUD short 1.4615 stop 1.4665 - 1/2
CRUDE short 86.75 stop 87.05 - 1/4
CABLE short 1.5260 stop 1.5285
GBPJPY short 143.00 stop 143.50
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9965
CRUDE short 86.75 stop 87.05 - 1/4
CABLE short 1.5260 stop 1.5285
GBPJPY short 143.00 stop 143.50
USDCAD long 1.00 stop 0.9965
Posts
lol....
ReplyDeleteNic , you are putting controversial pics mate. Not my fault when I ask about them :-)
This time ..I am definetly not asking !
ta
ams
What are you looking at tentatively for a downside target for any SPX/crude correction?
ReplyDeleteAnd when you say, "bounce," here:
"The Nasdaq has hit the 161.8 fib extension of the first rally off the March lows, the S&P has fib resistance at 1196. We could be at or near a level where we get a bounce."
You're talking a short term move up to resistance right? Kinda like a mini bulltrap? I could see a scenario like that playing out on SPX before continuing this 3rd leg higher off the 1044 takuri low. In this scenario the mini bull trap turns into a larger bear trap.
The more I try to be objective, the more a quick rush to 1300 looks feasible. I think that may ultimately be how this cyclical bull pans out. Of course, thats not how I "want" it to play out, but you know...
And I think you got a problem there with that addiction... at least get yourself one of those cushioned seats... or build a desk in there...
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ReplyDeleteHaha I better take it down, one day my mum might want to read this.
ReplyDeleteHey Nic, thanks for all the info on here and on FF. I am going to bother you until you put a restraint order on me :)
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