Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Tuesday May 29th Crude oil, Gold, Silver, Copper

I apologise for the lack of posts, I had a  bit of struggle to keep up with everything.
This market has been dead since last Thursday and chopped around.  Bearish sentiment hit extremes last week (

Looking for a bounce in Oil ... Remember buy dips not rips ...

July WTI is a bullish crab pattern off the round $90 level, the trend is clearly down but we have a lot lined up in favour of a bounce here (to sell again later)  At the very least we will retest 95.43
Brent (loves the 78.6fib)


Gold - 4hr chart
Smart reversal at the 50fib and 1600 level could mean a retest & break of the 1526 lows next.  However if risk appetite improves and we break the 1600 resistance level then 1620 is resistance and 1640 resistance completes a bearish bat harmonic pattern for a sell.

Silver weekly chart 
Like gold its in a pretty clear buy zone and two weekly hammers (last week also an inside bar)  but something about this chart just says lower to me.  The daily making a nice tight consolidation triangle for a breakout trade. If we break higher I would look for price action at $30, 31 or 32.10 to resell
Silver 4hr chart

Monday, May 14, 2012

Monday 14th May 2012

I can't believe I did almost no trades last week (apart from a loser in USDCHF).  I kept waiting for pullbacks that never happened.

Monday is my hospital day so only one trade and I will post charts tomorrow.
This morning I bought GBPAUD, sterling is strong, AUD is selling, there was a nice 1hr wedge consolidation
GBPAUD hourly
GBPAUD daily

New  Trade:
GBPAUD long 1.6060 stop 1.6010 target 1.6360

Open trades:
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30(1/4 position)

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Stock Indexes Tuesday 8th May 2012

What a sell off last week, led by oil.  Stock indexes have been range bound for sometime and we are still pretty much range bound but the market may have finally made its move.
The AAII investor sentiment showed a the biggest ever neutral sentiment and then last week it spiked 30% sharply higher (to a 6 month high) That apparently was the warning sign as investors who hated the rally in January and February finally pile in and get stuffed again.

 S&P (emini chart)4hr.  Bearish bounce off the 38.2 fib retracement of last weeks highs, I am waiting for an entry to resell again.  The 1380.75 pivot is where I am watching to reload shorts but it could just keep selling off ...

FTSE daily chart. Bear flag within a broader bullish gartley pattern, I prefer to sell rallies for a retest of the 5070 low next

DAX daily chart, put in a bearish reversal monthly candle for April ... the most bearish chart of the stock indexes I look at. It is a bearish Gartley pattern which hit the first target of 5441 on Friday. It will likely bounce here but a close below 5441 sets up a retest of last autumns lows next.

RUT bottom of wedge / triangle could see boounce here.  Bearish gartley still in play with first target of  769.50

Nasdaq (weekly chart) the low of last months hanging man has broken and we look set for more downside.  Weakly bearish engulfing and not yet at a support level I would buy off.

I tried a countertrend back and fill trade in USDCHF this morning -1R
Going to keep my powder dry while we consolidate a bit 

Friday, May 4, 2012

NFP Friday

Haven't been too well this week and missed the lovely bear flag short in Brent oil yesterday.  Will keep selling oil on rallies after Draghi affirmed on the uncertain outlook for the euro. Global efforts to push crude prices to below $100 seem to be working now and Brent-WTI spread tightening nicely as no one mentions Iran anymore.
The sell off this week makes me think that NFP gives us a final flush ... or we go sideways (doji day) and flush Monday.  Eitherway I am buying cable on the dip.

Brent daily bear flag break projects 109-110 next

ES 4hr chart - bearish bat pattern - shows we have a bit lower to go before we hit support

FTSE  appears to have broken rising wedge from 10 April low (4hr chart).  If the harmonic pattern plays out then we go to 5100

Likewise EURUSD has a bit lower before we hit the bottom of the wedge and the 1.30 support zone

I am watching Cable for a buy entry, I have nibbled a little at 1.6165 here but will stop out and buy lower if I am wrong ...

Trades today
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30 target 115 & lower
Cable long 1.6165 stop 1.6140 target 1.65
Cable stopped out (My stop was the exact low grrrr) -1R
Brent June closed 50% 115.10 +1.5R
Brent June closed 25%  112.40 +3R

Open positions:
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Trade Update

Have not been able to watch screens Monday because of appointments so slow updates sorry.

EURUSD (daily chart) my target was 1.33 and it topped out at  1.3283.  I got out late 1.3240 once it was clear we had rolled over at the top of the wedge

EURAUD (4hr chart)  was a false breakout that failed to hold on a retest so I am out also.

AUDUSD I was stopped out on the balance of my position on the surprise 50bps rate cut Monday
Still short USDJPY & new trade short EURGBP
 I liked yesterdays shooting star, even tho we are on fib support the trend is clearly lower.  The SNB also love EURGBP and are buying GBP with their EUR so I have them on my side ;)  0.80673 important support EURGBP needs to break and hold below.

AUDUSD balance half position stopped out (-0.5R)
EURUSD closed balance 1.3240 (+2.2R)
EURAUD closed balance 1.2782 (+1.6R)
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175

Open positions:
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36