Monday, July 19, 2010

Weekly charts Indices Gold and Crude

Talks have broken down between the IMF, EU and Hungary and Hungary has been cut off from access to the rest of the IMF funds which is a risk-off tone for the start of the week and a weak HUF could drag down EUR and give a boost to the USD.  
China has pledged support for the EUR, no surprise.

USDJPY has broken major support at 87.00 and it will be interesting to see what will happen when it is retested, It is a Japanese holiday tonight (Sunday/Monday) so we may have to wait.

Rolled over after a tussle at the trend line from the April highs and weekly candle will close as a bearish doji without hitting the 50fib retracement from the highs.  Because it didn't make the 50fib it is either very bearish trend continuation and we will make new lows and the 890 area or we have more upside to come and will make the 50fib and 1120 area.  We are for sure heading lower as the week starts but because its summer and we are still in earnings I am leaning towards support holding and we go higher before lower.  Support at 1060 (flash crash low) or more likely 1040 should hold.  If it doesn't then we go to 950 next.

FTSE 4hr chart
Similar to the SPX, the break above the descending resistance trendline from the April highs makes FTSE a  more bullish chart than the SPX and a sign of things to come perhaps.

GOLD daily chart
Gold has stalled at the 50fib retracement from the March low.  Stronger support at the 61.8fib is around the 1164 level.  However if you trust measured moves and if Gold makes a second equal measured drop here then the target is around 1136.  A drop to the 61.8fib or the 78.6 fib at 1136 would be very interesting because it would mean a break of the long term weekly trendline from the October 2009 lows.
A break of this weekly trendline would be very interesting and would have a target between 973.9-905.2

CRUDE daily chart
Crude is in a rising channel which is bearish after being rejected at the 61.8fib from the April highs and then found support at the 23.6fib we are now back at the 50fib. Higher lows and higher highs suggest we are climbing our way back up.
Weekly chart could be construed as one big bear flag or rising wedge and a lower high here and a break back below 70.00 would be interesting as it is a break of the weekly trendline from the lows and projects a target of 60.17 - 53.80

Currency charts to follow Monday morning.

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