Thursday, July 15, 2010

Thursday 15 July

Dollar index has hit my interim target of 82.70 and I think we bounce here.  The trend is still down as the DX has broken trendline support but we have a risk-off correction and some  back and fill due.
GBP looks like a better short than EUR or CHF.
CAD and AUD are better shorts than NZD (breaking wedge support in AUDNZD and AUDCAD about to hit 0.9250 reversal area)
If USDJPY breaks support at 87 then XXXJPY crosses are good shorts.
USDSEK is an interesting buy at this 7.3 level, good SR level and two equal swings down from June highs.
Gold is a good daily bear-flag forming.  I am looking to short between 1225-1235

New trades (half risk per trade as all very correlated):
EURUSD short 1.2895 stop 1.2920 PT 1.2515 - see chart weekly level
USDCAD long 1.04 stop 1.0380 PT 1.0490 / 1.0740
CABLE short 1.5350 stop 1.5410 PT 1.4870
CABLE stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD long 1.0380 stop 1.0350 P1.05 / 1.0340 - trying again 1/2 size

Open Positions:

CRUDE LONG 72.30 stop 71.70 PT 75.00 - 1/4 position
CRUDE long 75.20 stop 74.70 PT 79.50 - 1/2 position
USDJPY long 87.30 stop 86.90 PT 89.20 - 1/2 position
USDCAD long 1.0380 stop 1.0350 P1.05 / 1.0340

EURUSD weekly chart

CABLE daily chart - 1.5350 big level too

I will be back full time next week ... Be interesting to see where the weekly candles close.


  1. Nic,

    You were right...DX is exactly at your mentioned fib level. How long it can retain itslef for that's another question.I am more of a pivot guy. I didn't know sucker follow fibs that religiously.


  2. They aren't exact levels fibs so they can knock around a bit. Looks like I am going to get stopped out of my premature shorts :(

  3. I am totally confused...look at kiwi levels seens when market was booming s&p above 1200 and cable,ussie, euro...what's happening is someone preparing for something..I've no idea but seems like it.

  4. yes it got my aud short. hero to zero. if this is a turn it might be the last move of the day and take place in asian session? or maybe its time to forget trends and just trade chop?

  5. I think its just chop :(
    Thursdays are the new Fridays now it is summer and big money is in the Hamptons tomorrow.

  6. This choppy action is pissing me off. I am frustrated with my ES short position.

  7. Yep, I had my arse handed to me.

  8. Goldman Sachs settled with SEC for mere 550million. Cause of spike.

  9. so you going to the hamptons then?

  10. stuff this,,,, ill see you in Varadero , Cuba.. 15 days of no studidity, no against the grain political bullshit, no trading. Pure enjoyment of a quasi communist capatilistic paradise of rum rum and rum.. and a lil salsa to boot.... heck last i left short crude at 147.20 1.0 lots 5 buck stop

  11. stupidity even.. srry typin in the dark

  12. Vardero? Getting my passport, I am on my way

  13. dont u worry my friend... its mojito´s from 10 till cocktails at 6.00.. just gotta remember we gotta bring our own limes as theyre always short.. ok ill book now twin singles block 9 iberostar varadero ..