Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Wednesday 07 July

Is the tumble in the indices going to keep tumbling here or bounce, is the big question.  If we collapse it will one of the most anticipated crashes ever which makes me think we are less likely to.
The charts are bearish, the trend is down and the S&P has broken the neckline of the big head and shoulders that everyone is looking at.  For the bullish bounce to have any power the S&P has to close back above the 1040 level and until then we bounce around. A close below 1000 would mean the 50fib at 943 is next.
Possible double bottom in AUDJPY at 72.70 suggests we could bounce still.  I like AUDUSD long better.  Yesterdays candle was a bullish engulfing and we retraced 50% and look all set to head higher.

EURGBP in a stair climb north headed for 0.8430 makes EUR a better long and GBP a better short trade.
GBPAUD has broken trendline support and forming a bear flag, I like this as a short if the market decides it is risk-on.   
EURCHF looks like it is about to roll over and retest the lows which makes GBPCHF an attractive short and a break of the weekly wedge sets up 1.58 and 1.5485.  I like the GBPCHF and GBPAUD trades a lot.  Will post some charts later.
Horrible day with crude yesterday, I will be watching my risk today.

AUDUSD long 0.8475 stop 0.8445 PT 0.8700
CRUDE LONG 72.30 stop 71.70 PT 75.00 /
GBPCAD short 1.5995 stop 1.6045 PT 1.55
GBPAUD short closed 50% @3R 1.7720 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD long closed 50% @3R 0.8565 (+1.5R)
USDCAD short closed 50% @3R 1.0510 (+1.5R)
CRUDE long closed 50% @ 3R 73.80 (+1.5R)
USDJPY long 87.30 stop 86.90 PT 89.20 SR level
AUDUSD closed 25% @6R 0.8655 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD closed 25% @6R 1.7540 (+1.5R)

Open Positions:
GBPAUD short 1.7900 stop 1.7960 PT 1.7450 / 1.73 - 1/4 position
USDCAD short 1.0600 stop 1.0630 PT 1.0475 / 1.04 - 1/2
GOLD short 1199 stop 1209 PT 1166
AUDUSD long 0.8475 stop 0.8445 PT 0.8700 - 1/4 position
CRUDE LONG 72.30 stop 71.70 PT 75.00 - 1/2
GBPCAD short 1.5995 stop 1.6045 PT 1.55 
USDJPY long 87.30 stop 86.90 PT 89.20


  1. as long as stuff is below the weekly open [WO] i have to think shorts. if ej is to get above the WO it won't be this session. maybe 4pm session.

    2 days in a row the move started in the asian session which suggest china. if adr is done by london session open on a regular basis i will have to be up with the owls and pussy cats to get in on the moves.

    the markets seem to be changing and i'm being pushed out into longer tf and different timings. maybe its the algos that make up 70% of the market now that make it unplayable for humans on the shorter tf.

    anyway trading is just till my band takes off :)

  2. EURJPY is a tough trade this week when it is all about the dollar. That's why it is only decent in Asian session. Looks like an inverse head and shoulders setting up though. If that double bottom in USDJPY holds (vs last weeks low) and EURUSD moves up again could break out of the sideways range.

    Is that your band :) Hehe

  3. Hi Nic,
    In you position description, what does "PT" mean? Thanks!

  4. Mr Topstep:

  5. Good call on the USD/JPY. I wanted to go long today, but got cold feet and couldn't execute the trade, because I always have such bad luck with JPY. I might go long later tonight during London session.

  6. Thanks
    EURJPY is a setting up a good head and shoulders for a breakout long too which if it works would project a target of 114 which is a not too shabby 400 pips away.

  7. Had short GBPAUD from around 1.81 but was in a situation where I had no regular Internet access after Monday till Friday afternoon, so had to be cautious on targets, but it was a big down move over the week to 1.7170. But it helped emotionally to be 'out of control'.

  8. Nice trade Dennis!! Are you still short? I think GBPAUD has a bit further down to go.