Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Tuesday 06 July

Big face ripper risk rally this morning in London session, I wonder if it will continue in the US session after grim predictions of a double dip over the weekend.
My view on the pairs has not changed since last week and will post full run down here later.
I like AUD and CAD best of all and as USDJPY is rallying too all the yen crosses look like good buys on dips while this risk bounce continues.

AUDUSD long balance stopped out - from last week (-0.5R)
New trades:
GBPAUD short 1.7900 stop 1.7960 PT 1.7450 / 1.73
CRUDE long 72.80 stop 72.40 PT 75.20 / 76.15
USDCAD short 1.0600 stop 1.0630 PT 1.0475 / 1.04
GOLD short 1199 stop 1209 PT 1166
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long 72.10 stop 71.80 PT 75.20 / 76.15
CRUDE stopped out again (-1R)

I am looking to sell USDCAD / buy AUDUSD / AUDJPY / CADJPY on pullbacks if I see and entry.
Gold is a very good looking short - 4hr / daily chart is a bear flag below the previous trendline support.

S&P has broken trendline resistance and out of its channel so it looks like the risk rally is set to continue.  Upside fib target 1070 and 1085

For some reason comments are not working unless you post as anonymous so I have disabled the log in.  Post as anonymous with your name or it won't work for now.


  1. you not paying ur bills again eh ?

  2. Hey Nic,

    How about we touch the resistance and bounce back?
    I am not sure if it's possible to fly above s&p 1040, dow 9800 that easy. Market is not very confident and due to low vol( as high flyers being on holiday for another 2 months until August)I see range bound markets. Asia was UP, London is UP it would be a surprise if USA is UP as well. Earning season is under way and things can get ugly (volatile) due to mixture of fundamentals coupled with earnings.

  3. Hi Ams
    If we were still in the descending channel I would think 1040 and bounce back down but it looks like a breakout and bigger correction higher to me.
    Still a sell rally market but think we might get a bit higher this swing

  4. Hey Nic, what are you thoughts on risk-on post ISM non-manuf.? Looks like market is discouting that. 53.8 is not that bad anyway i think.


  5. Market is ignoring the ISM, I think it priced in much worse.
    We will see if this rally has legs but for me this week it is risk-on and buy dips

  6. Hmmm, as they BUY the rumour sell the fact..no one seems to remember that for now. Or they do but only when the US market close is near,let's see.


  7. asian session moves tend to wreck the day for me. still can't force a trade if its not there.

    so sat around all day. its all pretty mixed but took a short on ej at 110.52 stop above high and its gone nowhere since.

    hoping the 4pm 8 hr candle will be a red one at least till 110 [50% retrace of day move]

  8. Not much retracing going on, that's for sure but everything is up against big levels

  9. Cable double top below 1.5230?
    I don't like it short today with this big rally but it is setting up a nice short.

  10. someone keeps buying that ej 50 but the DTs in the charts have me hopeful.

  11. just noticed the snp 8hr candle has been retraced to 61.8

  12. Yeah be interesting to see if the retracements hold.

  13. Mr Topstep:

  14. which fx is best correlated to snp these days?

  15. I think AUD crosses are best correlated. AUDJPY particularly and GBPAUD and EURAUD inversely corrrelated

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