Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Tuesday July 20

Firstly apologies for not posting so much, I am fighting my way back but its a slog.  Hopefully next week I will be on all cyclinders and more charts.

Bank of Canada rate decision is due in 10 minutes.  96% of analysts say the BoC will hike and market has priced in a 25bps increase.  I am not so sure and if they do not hike then USDCAD will take off.  Yesterdays daily candle was a bearish hanging man so technically we are set for lower but I would buy any dips back to 1.04 area.  Tom (Trader Dante) pointed out the similarity in the chart to Sep/Oct 2008 and the same levels.
CADJPY is perched on 82.00 support.  A break below this level and trendline support has a fib target of 78.25 and a measured move target of 77.40
EURCAD is a very interesting chart, a break of the long term weekly trendline resistance.  I would be looking to buy dips and looking for price action at the 1.3330-50 area

USDJPY
The break of the 87.00 level is a biggie, 4hr chart is a bearish wedge at that level and we look set for lower.  I am bearish unless it gets back above 88.00

AUDUSD balance stopped out (-0.5R)

Open Positions:
USDCAD long 1.0380 stop 1.0350 - 1/2
GBPJPY short 133.90 stop 1.3450 - 1/2
GOLD short 1203 stop 1209 - 1/2
EURGBP long 0.8470 stop 0.8440 PT 0.8730

EURUSD daily chart
Trendline resistance from the Nov highs is broken and suggests higher prices but we are bouncing at a good 61.8fib.  I am looking to buy a pullback to 1.27 or 1.2550 looking for a target of 1.3190 and 1.35

4 comments:

  1. On EURUSD

    1.2857, or where we just bounced, was the 23.6 fib of the high in 2008 to the recent low.

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  2. do you still go t2w? i've just been for the first time in ages.

    proboard has new room

    index daily downtrends continue. ftse 5100 is a bit solid.

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  3. Richard, I couldn't get in to the new room today :(

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  4. some people had to clear their browser cache. not a lot happening just people talking about other options like colours and what not. phil got in.

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