Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Tuesday July 20

Firstly apologies for not posting so much, I am fighting my way back but its a slog.  Hopefully next week I will be on all cyclinders and more charts.

Bank of Canada rate decision is due in 10 minutes.  96% of analysts say the BoC will hike and market has priced in a 25bps increase.  I am not so sure and if they do not hike then USDCAD will take off.  Yesterdays daily candle was a bearish hanging man so technically we are set for lower but I would buy any dips back to 1.04 area.  Tom (Trader Dante) pointed out the similarity in the chart to Sep/Oct 2008 and the same levels.
CADJPY is perched on 82.00 support.  A break below this level and trendline support has a fib target of 78.25 and a measured move target of 77.40
EURCAD is a very interesting chart, a break of the long term weekly trendline resistance.  I would be looking to buy dips and looking for price action at the 1.3330-50 area

The break of the 87.00 level is a biggie, 4hr chart is a bearish wedge at that level and we look set for lower.  I am bearish unless it gets back above 88.00

AUDUSD balance stopped out (-0.5R)

Open Positions:
USDCAD long 1.0380 stop 1.0350 - 1/2
GBPJPY short 133.90 stop 1.3450 - 1/2
GOLD short 1203 stop 1209 - 1/2
EURGBP long 0.8470 stop 0.8440 PT 0.8730

EURUSD daily chart
Trendline resistance from the Nov highs is broken and suggests higher prices but we are bouncing at a good 61.8fib.  I am looking to buy a pullback to 1.27 or 1.2550 looking for a target of 1.3190 and 1.35


  1. On EURUSD

    1.2857, or where we just bounced, was the 23.6 fib of the high in 2008 to the recent low.

  2. do you still go t2w? i've just been for the first time in ages.

    proboard has new room

    index daily downtrends continue. ftse 5100 is a bit solid.

  3. Richard, I couldn't get in to the new room today :(

  4. some people had to clear their browser cache. not a lot happening just people talking about other options like colours and what not. phil got in.