Friday, July 16, 2010


 ” [Michael Marcus - another top trader] taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money. ” 
- Bruce Kovner
Thanks for the reminder 50Pips

Well I picked good levels yesterday but they didn't hold.  Its Friday and option expiry in equities, a good day to trade quietly and wait to see how the week ends.   

Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are weaker than the continentals (EUR, CHF, GBP) and better shorts at the moment IMO.
I still like yesterdays low to hold in the dollar index for a bounce but EURUSD and GBPUSD look like they could have a bit more room to the upside. 

The 50fib didn't hold in EURUSD so eyes now on1.30 round number and then the 61.8fib and the 1.3090 level which was pretty good resistance at the end of 2008 and early 2009.  (weekly chart)

AUDUSD 4hr chart - possible double top. 

USDJPY is again testing the yearly low at 86.96.  A weekly close below 87.00 is very bearish and means the yen crosses could be interesting trades coming up. 

Is clinging to the descending trendline from 26 April high. Yesterdays hanging man doji suggests a pullback could happen but might be a shallow summer correction.  Because of the chop I would like to see the purple trendline support broken to signal a pullback to 1055 area (50%) and risk-off.

I was looking for a pullback to 1224-1235 area  to short but this bear flag seems to be quite shallow.  For the first time in two weeks price has penetrated the previous days low ... one to watch

EURGBP daily, break of this trendline targets 0.8730-50 then 0.89.  Buy on dips.

New trade:
AUDUSD short 0.8785 stop 0.8810 PT 0.8590
CRUDE  balance long from 75.20 closed 76.50 (+1.3R)
USDJPY stopped out balance (-0.5R)
GBPJPY short 133.90 stop 1.3450 PT 1.32
GOLD short 1203 stop 1209 PT 1164 - will cut if does not break 1200
CRUDE long balance closed 76.00 (+1.85R)
CRUDE short 76.00 stop 76.50 PT 74.50 - trendline break
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0470 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 87.10 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY short closed 50% @3R 132.10 (+1.5R)

Open Positions:
USDCAD long 1.0380 stop 1.0350 - 1/2
AUDUSD short 0.8785 stop 0.8810 - 1/2
GBPJPY short 133.90 stop 1.3450 - 1/2
GOLD short 1203 stop 1209 
CRUDE short 76.00 stop 76.50 


  1. Hi Nic, hope you are getting better.
    Re EURUSD, in fact, given the overall Risk on thing, the strong support of USD index at around 81.50 levels, end of the week etc made me hesitate on that 50% retrace and wait for .618.
    Don't know if I will be able to wait it out though. :-)

  2. Hi Prashant
    European Bank stress test results are due next Friday. I am tempted to pass on the short and look to buy it again at the 1.26 area. I am leaving it for today anyway.
    Good Luck!

  3. turned out ok day for a friday :)