Wednesday, July 21, 2010


I have to admit it I was expecting higher (1.3190 would be projection of inverse head and shoulders, even though I hate the pattern) but EURUSD has put in a bearish engulfing candle or key outside reversal day off the 1.30 round number (also strong resistance summer 2006, early 2003) and it is also the 61.8fib retracement from the April high to lows. 
It is also a bearish butterfly pattern
Therefore I am looking for short entries targeting the 38.2 fib / 1.2570 area initially.

USDCHF has bullish long tails on the daily candles off the 1.05 support area and is an interesting buy back to 1.07 then 1.12.

AUDCAD might be an interesting short or at least an indication that AUD is a better short than CAD.
It is at the 50% retracement from the Nov 09 highs and also the breakout point where it broke from the long term wedge.  I am watching this one, I want to see a daily reversal candle because there is a danger we keep going higher to the 61.8fib at 0.94


EURGBP long stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD short 1.2885 stop 1.2910 PT 1.2550
USDCAD balance stopped out 1.0410 (+0.5R)
EURUSD short stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD short (again) 1.2880 stop 1.2910 PT 1.2550
AUDCAD short 0.9175 stop 0.9205 PT 0.8850 - TL break
AUDUSD short 0.8830 stop 0.8860 PT 0.8550
CRUDE short 78.00 stop 78.50 PT 76.00
USDCAD long 1.0405 stop 1.0380 PT 1.074
AUDCAD stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD short closed 50% @3R 1.2790 (+1.5R)
USDCAD long closed 50% @3R 1.0480 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 76.50 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 0.8740 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD balance 50% stopped out 0.88 (+0.5R)
USDCAD balance 50% stopped out 1.0430 (+0.5R)
EURUSD balance 50% stopped out 1.2850 (+0.5R)

Open Positions:
GBPJPY short 133.90 stop 1.3450 - 1/2
GOLD short 1203 stop 1209 - 1/2
CRUDE short 78.00 stop 78.50 PT 76.00 - 1/2


  1. That EUR/USD trade has good potential.

    I just closed out my ES position @ 1077 and went short on EUR/USD @ 1.2875

  2. Could you say more about butterfly pattern?

  3. Hi Dennis
    it is a fibonacci pattern, here are a couple of good explanations:

    The perfect butterfly pattern

    The Bearish Butterfly

  4. well you got your wish! daily reversal on audcad yest..

  5. Ha, yes after it stopped me out. I am waiting for 0.94 and the 61.8fib on AUDCAD now