Friday, July 9, 2010


It's Friday and it is summer.  If I didn't have any trades open I would probably take today off.
Canadian employment numbers have come in this morning adding 93,200 jobs which is huge and helped my CAD trades reach their fib targets.
There are flags or equal triangles on a lot of markets.  Cable consolidating below resistance, EURUSD at the top of the channel.
It is one of those days when they could break either way.  We could roll over and do some back and filling with jitters pre-earnings or we could roll over and restart the down trend.  I personally think we could see higher prices and better levels to sell from so I am in the back and fill before another leg up camp.

S+P has stopped at the 50% back of the last swing (June high to lows).  A reversal here would not be good for the bulls and means a retest of the lows and possibly new lows.  I would prefer to see the down-trending resistance line and the 61.8fib tested first.

Because AUDUSD has broken above the descending trendline and the flash crash 87.00 level and found  support off it.   I think it is likely we see higher prices and some breakouts.  AUD and CAD are good risk indicators usually and I intend to buy a breakout of this consolidation or a retest of the 0.8700 level.

I am holding on for 76.50-77.00 before we roll over and do some back and fill rolling over and rejecting off the previous trend-line support would be bearish and get me out and likely short next week .   I am holding on the the last 1/4 of my long trade but open to a reversal at this point.

A good bounce off the weekly SR level at 87.00.  I am holding for a second swing up to 89.20, the 61.8fib retracement of this swing and the 50% retracement of the bigger swing and the descending trendline.

My Gold short is taking its time. The weekly looks set to close as a doji so it could go either way.

USDCAD closed 25% @ 6R 1.0420 (+1.5R)
GBPCAD closed 25% @6R 1.5695 (+1.5R)
GOLD stopped out  (-1R)

Open Positions:
USDCAD short 1.0600 stop 1.0630 PT 1.0410 - 1/4 position
CRUDE LONG 72.30 stop 71.70 PT 75.00 - 1/4 position
GBPCAD short 1.5995 stop 1.6045 PT 1.5610 - 1/4 position
USDJPY long 87.30 stop 86.90 PT 89.20 - 1/2 position


  1. Hello Greg Long time :) Living here you get used to that pronounciation :(

  2. hehe.... im gunna call u pepsi, from now on.... agree with ur analysis, although as usual im already in looking for back n fill in smalls... no signals just one of those times i happenned to run out of gaffer tape and couldnt help myself

  3. did you see AUD in august last year? 4 weeks of no where.

  4. Haha, Pepsi is a rude word in Canada (slang for french canadians, anglophones are cokes).
    I used to be addicted to diet pepsi, hardest thing I did was give it up.

  5. Richard last summer was so ugly for the indices and for AUD, they were very correlated.
    This summer I am going to trade very carefully.
    I think Mondays and Fridays are days for trading carefully, a lot of big players take long weekends.

  6. caffine is a monster. i found it harder to give up coffee than smoking.

    i'm trying to give up sugar but everything is loaded with it in the 'sugarmarkets'. It must be perfectly possible to bake biscuits and cake with sweetner. I may have to bake them myself.

    if i had the capital i would open a factory and make everything non sugar.

    it seems bizarre to me the sugar markets charge more for leaving sugar out than putting it in. I feel like some pervert when i go to the till with my 'non sugar' basket.

  7. yes everything has the feel of 'range'. there was a recent bloomberg article how hedgies were staying in cash because they didn't know which way to bet and were cautious after recent losses.

    we piggyback but they make the calls that move the market and looking 9 months ahead it must be uncertain?

    if the market drivers are changing from the west to the east then one wonders if they have the concept of 'summer holiday in china, arabia etc?

  8. I honestly believe sugar and white foods are poison. Giving them up was the hardest thing to do ever, the cravings are terrible. You basically have to give up all processed foods and make everything yourself.

  9. yes rather than restaurants [except for the odd bit of sin food] one tends to end up with picnics and home cook.

    also having been a cook there are not many places i trust to eat in. Some of the hygiene is shocking. At one place I saw people playing football in their chef whites during t break.

  10. Happy Friday everyone!

    End of week comedy, courtesy of ZH:

  11. OMG that is so funny.
    Have a great weekend!