Thursday, July 1, 2010

Thursday 01 July

It is Canada Day and I am not doing much today.  It is setting up for a risk-on bounce.

4hr chart.  At the bottom of the channel and at the 74.50 pivot level.  I am waiting for reaction to the data at 10:00 NY time but a break here has a target of 72.00 and the 61.8fib.  Risk on would  mean a trip  back up to the top of the channel potentially.

Pullecd back to the 61.8fib and price action is now bullish. Break up through the descending channel line has a target of 86 and possibly 87.00
AUDUSD is a bigger bullish butterlfy pattern.
Could be one more swing down for AUDUSD from the top of the channel if the market does not like the numbers.

GOLD wedge break and potential trendline break targetting 1200 and 61.8fib

EURJPY 4hr chart
Upside targets 110.70 - 111.50

The sharp spikes up this morning in cable and EURUSD are tempting shorts if the data is bad ...
I also like EURAUD short at the 61.8fib retracement.

CRUDE short 74.20 stop 74.60 PT 72.00
AUDJPY short 73.60 stop 74.10 PT 71.90
GOLD short 1230 stop 1239 PT 1200
CRUDE closed 50% @73.00 (+1.5R)
CRUDE closed balance 72.20 (+2.5R)
GOLD closed 12.08 - 1.41fib extension (+2.4R)
AUDUSD long 0.8420 stop 0.8395 channel breakout PT 85.90
AUDJPY closed out, not working (-0.8R)
CRUDE long 72.50 stop7190 PT 74.30 - 1hr wedge, 4hr bullish gartley countertrend to re-test channel
EURAUD long 1.4850 stop 1.4970 off 61.8fib PT 1.4530 / 1.4315

Will add another Gold short next rally...

Very bad US data ... Equities are falling and so is USDJPY because bond yields cannot rise on that data.  Collapsing yields do not support USD strength but EUR and Cable setting up good shorts for tomorrow


  1. ej been a wild day.

    as long at 107.50 holds its a DB so i have buy bias. but it might flatline for the rest of the day now.

    what do you reckon on eursek? A certain proboarder is short.

  2. Nic what are you thoughts on cable? Bullish engulfing today...

  3. Grinks
    Cable has been such a tough trade.
    EURGBP has retraced to that zone where it could reverse and go down again, giving strength to sterling.
    I still think cable has one more leg up to go to the 1.5250 area and the descending trendline.

  4. If cable retraces 50% of todays bullish engulfing candle or retests 1.50 then it could be a good buy up to that level. Otherwise buy a break of the daily bullish engulfing.

  5. Richard ...
    EURJPY just broke its wedge to the upside, more upside to come.
    I like EURSEK short too, but sell rallies :)

  6. Equities are turning positive. I am sure traders taking profits and covering shorts ahead of NFP tomorrow and long US holiday weekend.

  7. 50% of last daily swing is about 110.50 although my smart money indicators say short now although that might just be for overnight retrace with buys setting up for am.

    the 'other' omni always goes on about holiday reversals against the main trend. not that i've watched his vids for a while.

    nice oil trade. if only they were all like that!

  8. If only they were!

    EURJPY is tough to target because it depends where you draw your fibs from. Because it made two equal measured moves down I took the fib from the top of those two moves.

  9. Mr Topstep from Option Monster (I am a fan of theirs) says that if futures are down hard before NFP tomorrow he thinks it will be a quiet flat day into the holiday weekend. I tend to agree with him:

  10. I went long AUD/USD near the close today, partly because of the nice hammer it put on the daily and the fact that we are heading into a 3 day weekend. I am hoping for some bullish bias tomorrow in the S&P. I have seen so many of these holiday reversals in the past, where the market reverses against current trend the Thur/Fri of the week prior to the holiday and then continues the trend after the holiday. I am thinking if S&P gains 15-30 handles tomorrow, AUD/USD should be up with 50-100 pips. It's all based on gut I don't know...we'll see what happens.

    I am going to close out my AUD/USD long near the close tomorrow if I it doesn't hit exit/stop before the close.

  11. thanks for that. any other goodies do share.

    ej is holding at r2 which makes it a neat s1 to r2 day. assuming that is the high a 50% retrace is 108.60.

    after the big moves friday maybe dull. i might look at binaries for nfp as they can work out easy.

  12. Well I am a big fan of the 3-day holiday reversal thing too.
    I am making dinner and then I will post some charts later but I think we are at a bounce point ... as in a risk-on bounce.

    AUDUSD is the 61.8fib and a nice breakout of the channel. Fingers crossed we don't get anhilitated by NFP! and the bad news is priced in.