Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Wednesday 12 May 2010, Silver

Nervous markets continue ... UK GDP numbers this morning are the big mover for sterling shortly in a low news day.  I have noticed since the crash I have not seen one Greek riot shot on CNBS :)
The Euro is starting to look very weak.  EURCHF is 40 pips above all time lows and if EURUSD breaks last weeks spike low we could see a sharp further fall.  Yen crosses are struggling to gain back last weeks falls and tripping at key fibonacci levels.
If / when stocks fall off again I will be selling AUD or NZD.

I like the setup in GBPAUD for a short today if stocks rally and short USDCHF. I also think there is some value in a countertrend long in AUDUSD with an upside target around 91.50

PS - Be very careful.  If you only sell and don't buy the CFTC will investigate you for causing market crashes.

SILVER
I am looking at a the 19.51 area as a possible short for today or tomorrow.  (Fibonacci timing tool says tomorrow should be the top).
My reasons are:
1.  That would be a double top
2. That is where the swing equals the swing from the end of Jan to March (AB=CD)
3. That is the 1.618 fib extension of the swing from end of Jan to March
4.  Top of the channel resistance (3rd touch)
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UPDATE re CRUDE
The International Energy Agency today released its monthly report for crude demand and for the first time in a year it has reduced its forecast for crude.  Looking at the crude chart for the past week it makes you wonder how many people had advance warning of this report, especially as crude hasn't even sold off on the news.
Inventories this morning might perhaps get this market moving.
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CRUDE 3rd addition closed 50% @3R 75.80 (+1.5R)
CRUDE 3rd addition stopped out balance @76.60 (+0.5R)
SILVER short 19.560 stop 19.750 PT 18.650 / 18.00
GBPAUD short 1.6660 stop 1.6710 PT 1.6500 / 1.6380
CRUDE short 76.40 stop 76.80 PT 75.50
CRUDE short stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE short again 76.20 stop 76.60 PT 75.00
AUDJPY short 83.10 stop 83.50 PT 81.00 (gap fill from Sunday)
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 75.20 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE today short balance closed 75.50 (+1.1R)
CRUDE short 25% balance from 79.70 closed @ 75.50 (+2.1R)
CRUDE short 25% balance from 86.75 closed @ 75.50 (+7R)
CRUDE long 75.40 stop 74.90 PT 78.50 / 82.00

Open trades:
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.30 - 1/4
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 - 1/4
GBPJPY short 140.90 stop 141.40 - 1/4
SILVER short 19.560 stop 19.750 PT 18.650 / 18.00
GBPAUD short 1.6660 stop 1.6710 PT 1.6500 / 1.6380
CRUDE long 75.40 stop 74.90 PT 78.50 / 82.00




27 comments:

  1. Hi Nic,

    What about recent sterling move up towards 1.5050? Is this still good enough to sell the rallies considering we have King speaking in less than an hour?

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  2. Hi Krunal
    I am a bit nervous of sterling at the moment because of the election and because it is really being held up by the drop in EURGBP.
    Now we are back above the daily trendline I am looking at 1.5150 or 1.5250 area for shorts now.

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  3. Sterling is a hard one to call. We are at the 61.8fib of last weeks drop.
    If you are careful with your risk then you might be alright.

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  4. Thanks Nic.

    Just made 45 pips thanks for King. I am now flat. I also noted in one of your posts yesterday that your new target in EU is 113. What time-frame are you talking about? In very near term, what's your outlook on EU and EJ?

    thanks
    KP

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  5. thanks to* king. correction.

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  6. I think that looks like a reasonable call on Silver.
    Good blog you got going here, Nic.

    Prashant

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  7. Hey Nic,
    Wanted to ask you how you select your entry targets, e.g. why 140.90 on GBPJPY or 93.75 on USDJPY? Do you look at shorter time frames when selecting levels for limit orders? Thanks

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  8. Nice one Krunal - King really killed it!

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  9. Hey Alexander
    When I am looking at where a swing will go to I usually mark weekly and daily support and resistance levels fist,
    Then I add trendlines and then I add fibonacci levels and I look for the level where they all meet up.
    If a trendline or support is broken it often goes back to retest that level, and if that lines up with a 61.8 fib level or a 1.27 / 1.618 fib extension then they are often turning points.

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  10. Hi Nic,

    Short silver taken at 19.53. Where should be the stop?

    cheers
    KP

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  11. Krunal I use tight stops for better reward and position size according to the stop. I get stopped out more often but it works for me.
    If your stop is at 19.80 or so and this is the swing high it should work.
    Be careful silver is expensive trade.

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  12. Ok Thanks Nic.

    I will be careful.

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  13. Thanks for explanation Nic. Do you look at oscillators at all?

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  14. I don't use oscillators although I have thought about RSI to help me time entries better.
    I use the 20ema and 50sma on all time frames for trend and the 200sma on the daily.
    I do sometimes use the CCI(4) on the hourly chart for entries too.

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  15. mornin Nic, a little late today..

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  16. Been there done that, you haven't missed so much

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  17. Hi Nic,

    Your blog says you had a mentor who helped you become a good trader. would you mind sharing that with me? I have been trading/blowing account/watching market/demo-trading/live-trading again for past 1 year. I have survived first year with 1 blown up account (last Thursday).

    I am in search of a good mentor, perhaps you could help me learn more and become a successful trader?

    Thanks
    KP

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  18. Krunal send me an e-mail. Nictrades at gmail.com

    I posted part 3 of the Floored movie

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  19. 300ema holding the mini dow, that crude holdin above daily up channel 74.32..startin to run outa room for further downside, might have a move back to challenge the trend sup turned res at 78.80 again

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  20. I am actually really shocked crude has stayed down here so long. The market must have been really long (CoT shows it was) and they are being squeezed.

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  21. haha im not... remember obama administration = lower oil.. Iran will test a med range missile in between 65-70... the test is whether we get a message from osama.. below 60 with no message my tinfoil hat idea is correct. Below 50 we get a message as thats just too low and the US govt will not get enough in tax renenue..

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  22. shrt silver 19.60 88 stop
    long crude 75.00 73.90 stop

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  23. Your long crude looks good. I am just thinking about my exit strategy from my shorts

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  24. Have you seen Gold? Thats probably what is holding silver up. Insanity

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  25. yeh watchin this hrly close very closely, remeber silver could still surge to its highs...bye the way thanks for the video.. used to work on the floor of the sfe for a wee while in the bond pit..mind you i hated the floor, prefered the night desk on fx in sydney..ohh for the days of DEM/ITL n GBP/DEM in 20... n yes i was one of those young guys that made n spent too much money..

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  26. This story must be a joke right? Merkel can't get out of the Euro without a referendum I don't think.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-new-kitco-dem-page-lets-rumors-about-germany-abandoning-euro-fly

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  27. hang on lets think about this... Euro going lower.. benefits Germany whilst capital goods needy countries continue to interviene in their own currencies et al China, Brasil, Korea, India.... Germany has just announced its funding for not only Greece but the eurozone, AXE Weeeeeeeber will be the next head of the ECB. Nup its a joke.. just trade Eur like we used to trade DEM once the Axe is at the helm

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