Monday, May 3, 2010

Indices Crude Gold Silver USD

US Indices have all bounced off the weekly 50SMA's which have provided chop zones in the past.
The S&P is starting to look toppy the way it did in January before it corrected 9%.  While the price action on Friday and the close was bearish it did not take out Tuesday low and stalled at the 78.2 retracement of the mid-week upswing.  I doubt we would continue straight down from here and we have Friday's NFP to get through which is predicted to be good (aren't they all, but they aren't).  The US indices are being strongly affected by the Goldman news flow and less so by the Euro/Greek crisis.

S&P monthly and weekly chart.
As CV pointed out to me the montly likes the 144sma and has hit it and closed below.  This moving average has proved strong SR in the past.
Shorter term
There appears to be a diamond top reversal forming on the 240min S+P chart.  This formation is rare but is very reliable (take a look at the big one on cable last summer).  If the pattern plays out then we go up from here to around 1202-1204 and I would look to sell rallies

Weekly bearish engulfing, daily bearish engulfing, a clear top has formed.  After such strong downmoves last week I would not be surprised to see some bounce here, there is support at 5390 and 5275.  I am a seller of rallies.

Longer term I am bullish with a target of 1206.  Price has bounced off the 1.27 fib extension of the last swing so we should pullback to 1169.70 or 1160 where I would be looking for price action to buy.  Pass for now, wait to buy.

Weekly hanging man doji, daily bullish continuation.  Price has bounced off 18.75 April 08 high and a possible correction here.  However the trend is bullish and if the USD pulls back this won't work.  Pass for now, wait for better price action.

Weekly hanging man doji, daily bullish however price has rejected at 87.00 which is the 1.27 extension of the last swing.  I like this short here (countertrend) target ting 81.00 area but possible support at 84 and 83.30.  A break above 87.00 means we go to 91.50 and the top of the ascending channel

Dollar index formed a bearish hanging man doji followed by two bearish harami off the top of a gently rising wedge pattern.  I expect the dollar to decline to the bottom of the channel and as the rising wedge is a bearish  we could possibly see a break to the downside at some point.  Some dollar weakness ahead perhaps.

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