The dollar index at 83.72 is the 61.8fib of the big drop (March to November 09) were I might expect a wobble and there is also some previous support at that level.
Crude oil is at daily trendline support, EURUSD is at the 161.8 fib extension of the last swing, the SPX has stopped at the 1.27fib of the last swing, AUDJPY did not break the daily trendline support, etc. So while it looks like key trendlines have been broken we could have a bump in the road ahead.
I am a dollar bull and this isn't a trend change, just a bump ahead perhaps.
.... and I am often wrong :)
Dollar Index daily chart:
Bear - Good story about Silver here: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/05/presidents-working-group-on-markets-why.html
Yields are blowing out on euro bonds this morning, usually signifies more EUR losses
CRUDE short 82.00 stop 82.50 - 1hr flag - PT 81.20 / 79.60
GBPJPY closed 143.19 - not working (+1.1R)
AUDJPY closed BE
AUDUSD short 90.65 stop 90.85 - 1hr bear flag
EURUSD short 1.2920 stop 1.2945 - 1hr bear flag
CRUDE addition closed 79.60 target (+2.8R)
GBPJPY long 1.42 stop 141.65 PT 143.20
USDCAD closed balance 1.0300 (+1.9R) - market reversing
EURUSD addition closed 1.2860 (+2.4R)
AUDUSD closed 0.9068 (-0.15R) market reversing
USDNOK short 6.0700 stop 6.1000 PT 5.9250 / 5.900 *
GBPJPY stopped out - ouch (-1R)
Asian session:
GBPUSD long 1.51 stop 1.5050 PT 1.5290
I am looking for election euphoria pullback in sterling to short again
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 PT 92.90
Open trades:EURUSD short 1.2920 stop 1.2945 - 1hr bear flag
CRUDE addition closed 79.60 target (+2.8R)
GBPJPY long 1.42 stop 141.65 PT 143.20
USDCAD closed balance 1.0300 (+1.9R) - market reversing
EURUSD addition closed 1.2860 (+2.4R)
AUDUSD closed 0.9068 (-0.15R) market reversing
USDNOK short 6.0700 stop 6.1000 PT 5.9250 / 5.900 *
GBPJPY stopped out - ouch (-1R)
Asian session:
GBPUSD long 1.51 stop 1.5050 PT 1.5290
I am looking for election euphoria pullback in sterling to short again
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 PT 92.90
CRUDE short 86.75 stop 87.15 PT 84 - 1/4
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.30 - 1/4
EURGBP short 0.8650 stop 0.8675 PT 0.8446 - 1/2
USDNOK short 6.0700 stop 6.1000 PT 5.9250 / 5.900 *
GBPUSD long 1.51 stop 1.5050 PT 1.5290
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 PT 92.90
USDNOK short 6.0700 stop 6.1000 PT 5.9250 / 5.900 *
GBPUSD long 1.51 stop 1.5050 PT 1.5290
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 PT 92.90
* Norges Bank hiked rates this morning
Posts
Morning, and thanks. All very true. It has been strikingly obvious that over the past few years there are indeed dark forces at work behind financial markets..one only needed to watch the oil price movements and news during 2007-2008. Everytime oil struggled at $100 and dropped back to $85...guess what.. yup Ol Osama would be out talking from the cave..Now however we have a different administration.. An administration that needs a strong stockmarket ( PPT, free money,,,,) , good but not too good economic data - ( we dont want rates to rise too quick). Stable oil n commodity prices... gotta try n keep both producers and consumers happy... As traders we need to be aware of these factors and trade accordingly. Just part of the game.
ReplyDeleteYields are blowing out again on Euroland bonds, usually means EUR losses to follow.
ReplyDeletelike to see this daily physical dow through the daily 50 ema
ReplyDeletehttp://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100505-6wyg-187kb
I think you get your wish. MrTopStep yesterday said that when this happened in January we got follow through the next day:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuPFKl1N0_A
Let's see what the ADP employment numbers do
Hmm good numbers and the market is still heavy ...
ReplyDeletejust imagine what cable will look like on a hung parliment...
ReplyDeletehaha as a UK friend just said.. at least the bangladeshi tourist trade will skyrocket...
ReplyDeleteI heard that they are opening the markets early for FTSE and gilts so we will find out. If its really close it might be a couple of days while they do a couple of recounts, won't that be fun.
ReplyDeleteGreek 10-year yield premium to bunds widens to 700 basis points.
ReplyDeleteSilver goin from Hi Ho to OH NO ...
ReplyDeleteNic, whats your take on Yen..I would have thought that Yen crosses would have been much lower given the way these markets are collapsing.
ReplyDeleteYeah the bond yields are holding up USDJPY and therefore the yen crosses. I have them all at technical resistance now but its a scary buy!
ReplyDeletenever mind train has left the station
ReplyDeletewowzer
ReplyDeleteeurjpy hit that weekly support line.. holdin so far
ReplyDeleteI just bought GBPJPY
ReplyDeletehmm.. what to do now? Short crude 86.35 , Euraud short 14505 + 14430 , short ymm0 11111 ( i liked the number..). Still think that this may be just the tip of the iceberg looking at the weekly and daily charts here.
ReplyDeletecrude managed a close below the daily 100 sma
ReplyDeletehttp://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100505-jmlc-237kb
I see that Bear.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to take some more money off my Eur shorts here. This 128 is a big big level. I will post some charts later,