So where are we in the markets ....
This is a long holiday weekend in the US and the UK (Monday) and normally going into a holiday weekend the market reverses its prior trend and then following the week it should resume it again. The trend of late has been down so I would expect to rally into the holiday but Thursdays are usually the biggest down days of the week and I therefore think we go down today and possibly end the week with a face-ripping rally. Which all makes it pretty dangerous out there!! I might not trade very much until next Tuesday.
So what looks good.
You can draw a pretty good wedge of EURGBP on the daily and a break of yesterdays low is a break of the wedge and says we have much more downside.
EURAUD is a good short on its way to at least 1.45 but I think the breakout level of 1.42 is possible. EURCAD is dropping like a stone also, next key support is at 1.28
Crude is rallying I think on the hope that the fix in the Gulf will stop the leak. Crude is pretty overbought and I think from here it rallies to test the 75.00 level and the underside of the channel it broke out from but I think a rally has the potential to take us to $80. Any bad news from the Gulf will not help crude longs so I am watching the news closely.
In summary, we look likely to get a big risk reversal into the holiday weekend and EUR is not the best buy right now.
Finally ... USD prelim GDP and employment numbers could be a market mover, out at 08:30 NY time
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welcome back, low in oil coincided with an attack on a yemeni oil pipeline....haha yes i know tinfoil hat n all that
ReplyDeleteHaha I saw that pipeline news. You must be used to your tinfoil hat by now ;)
ReplyDeletewell at least we know where the line in the sand is now, kinda what i was waiting for. Some interesting things have come out of Greece as well, first there was talk that they may go to market to try and sell some short term t-bills and yesterdays piece that they were trying to renegotiate with the EU and IMF over pensions..... certainly something aint right there.
ReplyDeleteThis stuff about China dumping eurozone debt / bonds is not good at all ... and Libor affects the US a lot too.
ReplyDeleteI am sticking by down then up to end the week but its volatile out there!
Gold!! I <3 fibonacci
ReplyDeleteOuch. Still a lot of first time unemployment claims and GDP not all it was expected to be. QE part 2 will be coming soon ...
ReplyDeleteagree with you lookin fr s+p down into 1065 then a bounce similar to crude looking for it to make a move above the hrly 300 ema then sell a failure tgting 300 lwma first
ReplyDelete