Crude has fallen over 20% without a bounce and tomorrow is the release of the UN draft sanctions on Iran. Iran has said it is prepared to block oil and "wreck Western economies" if sanctions are imposed.
EURUSD has fallen hard today and bearish sentiment is really extreme. The all-time low is at 0.8228 in October 2000 and the all time high at 1.6040 in July 2008 so that means the 50fib is at 1.2140 … and the 1.618 fib extension of the last swing is around 1.2165.
In fibonacci terms this is a good place for a bounce.
In fibonacci terms this is a good place for a bounce.
S+P futures have stopped tonight at the 50% retracement of the bounce off the flash crash lows. It makes me think that the indices could rally from here.
Remember .. I am often wrong :)
Posts
these are no longer charts. they are sharts
ReplyDeleteHaha
ReplyDeleteLook forward to being back with you next week.
Remember when all the bulls throw in the towel its time to buy.
Hey nic, any thoughts on the German shorting ban that broke around the UK session close?
ReplyDeleteFantastic holds Nic, great exits. Enjoy your break.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYou mean you closed it because you thought it's gone a long way and you started looking for a reason to take profit...I hope you don't think a few fibonacci levels are going to stop this train wreck.
ReplyDeleteI don't think one can say bearish sentiment is at an extreme. Has sentiment ever been measured during a sovereign debt crisis?
Sorry I missed the open this morning.
ReplyDeleteTom - I am still bearish EURUSD and I am sure it is going to parity, just not in a straight line and I used the fibonacci levels as a tool for exits. Sentiment has been bearish extreme since early April based on CoT and 2% DSI (2% are bullish.
I think that EUR GBP and CHF will outperform the commodity currencies (AUD CAD NZD) hence I am long EURAUD, the least popular vs the previously most popular.
Hey Maverick
ReplyDeleteI am still trying to figure out how this ban is going to work. I think the reason the market doesn't like it is uncertainty too, not necessarily because its ne. Obviously there is a big bid under bonds but that has been for a while already.
I think it is likely other EU countries will follow and I think the ECB might cut rates as the next step at least to 2% and its going to stay there for a long time (years).
And Italy suspends mark to market accounting for Eurozone bonds this morning.
ReplyDeleteThis bailout, the German ban, the Italy trick. It is all about protecting EU banks which must be in really horrible shape.
This is going to be the part 2 ...
The trend has definately turned for risk currencies AUD NZD and SEK
German BaFin:
ReplyDeleteBund Future Exempt From Short-Selling Ban
wheres your source on the bund ftr not being included? still a grey area i think nic..
ReplyDeleteand the SNB bought 15 yards of EURCHF
ReplyDeleteMaverick that is what they are saying in the STIRS trading room at propboards.com
ReplyDeleteMedley report out says chances of ECB intervening to buy EUR is high
ReplyDeletesnb goin nuts
ReplyDeletethis is madness
Round 2 - SNB buys another 12 yards EURCHF
ReplyDeletesuits me still long 1/2 from 14010
ReplyDeleteok all sqr now..
ReplyDeletewhat a week u picked to take off.....
ReplyDeletehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10134766.stm
ReplyDeleteI'm getting withdrawals... please come back soon.
ReplyDeleteI am not around at all tomorrow but I am back in the seat on Thursday and looking forward to it.
ReplyDeleteHope everyone's trading going OK