Thursday, May 13, 2010

Thursday 13 May

I am late today because I am a bit busy with things this week outside of trading.  
I am short a few sterling crosses because sterling usually drops the month following an election.  I particularly like GBPJPY but it will not do well in US sessions if stocks rally.
However a lot of XXXJPY crosses have broken out of wedges this morning, and I have liked the yen crosses lower for some time.
GBPJPY 240min chart

AUDCAD has broken out of the range I had been waiting for.  It looks good counter-trend long to retest the breakout level here but I am going to wait and sell a retest rally.

GBPJPY short 137.80 stop 138.30 - addition
GBPAUD closed 50% @3R 1.6510 (+1.5R)
CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)
BRENT crude short 80.75 stop 81.25
GBPJPY closed 50% @3R 136.30  (+1.5R)
SILVER stopped out (-1R) - will try this one again
GBPAUD short balance closed 1.6250 (+4.1)
GBPAUD long 1.6250 stop 1.6190 PT 1.6450 / 1.6550
SILVER short again 19.630 stop 19.820 PT 18.65
BRENT closed 80.50 (+0.5R) - trade not working
CRUDE long 74.50 stop 73.90  PT 76.00 / 78.00
GBPJPY short (today) closed 1.3580 (+2)
GBPJPY original short 1/4 balance closed 1.3580 (+2.55)
GBPJPY long 1.36 stop 1.3550 PT 1.3750 / 139.00
GBPUSD long 1.4680 stop 1.4630 PT 1.4950
CRUDE long closed 50% @ 76.30 (+1.5)
CRUDE closed balance 75.00 - price action too confusing (+0.4)
EURNZD long 1.7525 stop 1.7475 PT 1.7675 countertrend
GBPUSD long stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY long stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.23 - 1/4
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 - 1/4
GBPAUD long 1.6250 stop 1.6190 PT 1.6450 / 1.6550
SILVER short  19.630 stop 19.820 PT 18.65
EURNZD long 1.7525 stop 1.7475 PT 1.767


  1. morning, nic! i'm loving that break in crude today.. i wanted to ask you if you made comments on your twitter? I don't on mine (laughing.)

  2. I don't at the moment, I am pretty new to twitter but I like it. I think I will start

  3. I knew crude was going to fall. I closed my longer term shorts last night so pretty much guaranteed to.
    The spread between US Crude and Brent has widened to 5 bucks from 2 bucks so I am shorting that one hoping that spread narrows.

  4. Currencies are trading the same way they did last Thursday before the flash crash

  5. Morning Nic, all pretty quiet today.. but that crude definitely looks like its in real strife now . closed my long earlier fr a small loss along with the silver short fr a small gain.

  6. Hey Nic,

    Glad to see you have joined twitter.
    Crude indeed has surprised everyone.
    Not sure where the markets are heading. All looks gloomy again.

    Euro is almost dead. Nothing before 115.

    We have summer months approaching when seasoned traders will be on holiday and market will be manipulated to it's fullest. Before going on holiday they would be selling so I expect continuation of bearish markets.

    We are oversold for today so for scalps i'll place long on few except EU.

  7. Hi Ams
    You were right about sterling. Here we are again everyone talking about EUR and sterling getting killed.

  8. I have 113 as target for EURUSD with a bounce at 123 maybe ... we will see if these measured moves work

  9. Yup, 113 seems ok. tbh, once 1.20 breaks it doesn't make sense for EU to continue. I think the eurozone will collapse unless those with powers in EU have cruel plans to keep slaves for life until they rebel.

    We all know the trend reverted overnight when US govt started it's printing press. Bad days for the pound started when BOE starting it's printing press for QE, and now it's EU's turn. It somehow managed to delay it's printing press until last week.

  10. ok, heads up on the pound. It seems Pru deal to aquire AIA asia(AIG) unit has been approved by the shareholders. This means heavy selling of the pound in coming days to buy the dollar. I say stay short on every rally.

  11. Damn
    I closed GBPAUD, Thanks for the heads up.

  12. Ams how do you know about PRU? The journal says the shareholder vote is next week?

  13. but u grabbed a nice long on crude...ive done absolutely squat today.. even missed reselling silver..

  14. Yeah stopped out of my first long, tried a short which was not so good, now I am going right way I hope.
    There have been wicked stop runs in crude and silver today.

  15. I was banking on the spread between Brent and US crude narrowing. That part is working at least, they are going opposite directions

  16. Thx for the tweet Bear
    I posted episode 4 of Floored

  17. no worries.. that last episode kinda depressing