Thursday, May 6, 2010

BLACK THURSDAY

It is election day in the UK and ECB rate decision day so all eyes on Europe.

The SnB has finally pulled their bid on EURCHF after good CPI numbers and apparently spending around 20bln in the last week.  EURCHF fell 120pips in a few minutes and we have a new line in the sand at 1.4210

EURUSD
EURUSD is sitting on 5year trendline support at 1.2730/1.2750 and there has been speculation that Trichet may announce some more QE this morning (agreeing to accept any quality Greek paper is already QE). In normal times this might be seen as very EUR negative but with the events of the past month this might be seen as more vigorous action and EUR positive.  If the trendline support goes then next support is not really until 1.2330 and the 2007 lows.

Price action is still really volatile and yen crosses look weak after USDJPY failed on the first attempt at 0.95

I was looking for an election rally in Cable to sell, looking for a target of 1.4780 2010 lows to be retested.

CABLE long stopped out (-1R)
USDNOK short stopped out (-1R)
EURCHF short 1.4205 stop 1.4235, 1hr inside bar, PT TBD
EURGBP short 0.8475 stop 0.8490 PT 0.8320
EURCHF closed 50% @ 3R 1.4115 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY short 84.65 stop 85.05 PT 82 / 80.50
CRUDE short 79.70 stop 80.20 PT 76.50 / 73.60
AUDUSD short 0.9035 stop 0.9050 PT 0.8895 / 0.8760
GBPJPY short 140.90 stop 141.40 PT 138.75 / 137
EURGBP addition stopped out (-1R)
USDJPY short closed 50% @3R 93.00 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY short closed 50% @3R 139.40 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY short closed 50% @3R 83.45 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 89.90 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 78.20 (+1.5R)
USDJPY short closed 25% @ 89.75 (+4R)
GBPJPY short closed 25% @ 131.00 (+4.95R)
AUDJPY short closed 25% @ 78.00 (+4.15R)
AUDUSD short closed 25% @ 87.50 (+4.75R)
CRUDE short closed 25% @ 75.00 (+2.35R)
EURCHF closed 25% @ 6R 1.4025 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
CRUDE short 86.75 stop 87.15  & 79.70 stop 80.20 - both 1/4
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.30 - 1/4
EURGBP short 0.8650 stop 0.8675 PT 0.8446 - 1/2
USDJPY short 93.75 stop 94 - 1/4
EURCHF short 1.4205 stop 1.4235 - 1/4
AUDJPY short 84.65 stop 85.05 - 1/4
AUDUSD short 0.9035 stop 0.9050 - 1/4
GBPJPY short 140.90 stop 141.40 - 1/4


46 comments:

  1. think the SNB has been hit by a sunami....

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  2. Nic,

    What do you think of the dollar at this point?

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  3. McF I was expecting a shallow correction here, but I keep being wrong about that.
    EURUSD which is 50% of the dollar index is in full sell mode and breaking major support now so I think the dollar rally keeps going big time.

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  4. thanks Nic, I was thinking the same, given we are pushing on the 61.8, but extended fifth wave may be the route we go anyway.

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  5. There is talk the SnB is panicking and might cut rates now we are 141 to stop this ...

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  6. I should say....we "were" pushing on the 61.8, ha.

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  7. ECB Conference - http://www.thomson-webcast.net/de/dispatching/?ecb_100506_stream_video

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  8. Thx Bear. He looks nervous!

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  9. Hi Nic,

    Can you please explain (1R, 1.5R), etc in your trade?

    thanks
    KP

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  10. Yeah R is the amount that I risk on a trade.
    I take profit, or half off when it gets to 3x my risk, and then I take another 1/4 off when it gets to 6x my risk unless it hits major SR before then.
    So if I risk 1% of my account and my stop is 40 pips then I will take half off when it gets to 120 pips and I have made 1.5% and the rest keeps running.

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  11. Bonds are puking, the EUR will follow

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  12. Watch CRUDE - at trendline support from the 08 lows ... a breakdown perhaps

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  13. 10´s n 30´s turnin back lower

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  14. McF .. I think we do have a shallow dollar correction now. We had the presser, the ECB are fiddling while Rome burns but market did not tank so ... perhaps collapse averted for a little while.

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  15. aud approaching daily 200..

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  16. dow thru support.. oh dear yen may go ballistic

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  17. well that worked out well

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  18. Wow
    Crude is taking out that trendline, SnP the same.

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  19. have 76.64 200 day sma n channel support at 74.00. still holding full short, same dow.

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  20. 76.60 area is a really good fib cluster too. Funny how that happens

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  21. now we are really startin to free fall

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  22. well done nic, looks like you have done well.

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  23. Bear
    I haven't seen anything this good in a while

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  24. This is getting close to a 1987 dump

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  25. You´d better mentor me in takin profit... i just watched 6k of profit turn into 3k in 5 minutes

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  26. I have been too busy to update blog
    but yeah, I used to be the same until I had it beaten into me

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  27. that was really interesting the dow futures jumped a clear 30 seconds or so before the physical

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  28. I only have 1/4 positions left but I might close.
    some stuff is going to be a tempting buy

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  29. I was watching snp but same deal

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  30. still have everything...sold some more eur aud off channel res n bgt some eurchf.. yeh yeh i know eurchf... but hey stranger things have happenned

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  31. From MrTopStep:
    sounds crazy but Hearing Citi's program desk had an e-mini program error. Meant to sell $16mm of the e-minis but put in $16bln instead.

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  32. haha good luck with EURCHF

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  33. riskin 40 pips on 50 k... no biggy

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  34. there has been some significant damage done to these charts. We arent just going to reverse this like we have done before...but i have been wrong before... still, I think that either Spain or the UK will be the next.. this is just the start.

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  35. This guy complaining on bloomberg must have been absolutely dusted. Personally i think it was Goldmans that was short n caused it...hehe

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  36. Well we bounced hard after 1987 but that was different. I think we retest these lows at least.

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  37. Wonder what Asia will make of this tonight.

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  38. I've never seen gbpyen lose so much in a day - down some 850 pips at one stage??!!

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  39. Yeah it was crazy Dan. I don't think this is over either.

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  40. what a crazy day. Lots of nice trades Nic. Congrats. Love your blog.

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