Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday 4th May - Turnaround Tuesday?

A wind storm and technology failure let me down this morning.  Time to catch up.

An unexpectedly dovish RBA statement last night has sunk the Aussie to support at 91.70. Down moves in April have had almost no follow through so we will see if this one has any legs. EURUSD is back at 2010 lows / support just above 1.31 on news Greece has hired a restructing firm (possible default?) and that the 110 billion bailout package will likely not be enough money.
Sterling has taken another hit but nothing has broken out of it's ranges yet, much like the indices.
USDJPY has pulled back to test last weeks high but looks set to pullback further.
Crude is off 2.50 from the highs, Gold has caught a bid but stuck again at the 78.2 fib.
I would not be buying EUR at this level, this is a one-way train for now.  A break of these lows could see some significant stops below and I am going short a break of 1.31 level.
I still like the XXXJPY's short but they will struggle if the US indices rally as usual.  Other than that I am struggling to see a trade I am really excited about, but when I do I will post it.

GBPAUD balance stopped out 1.6550 (+0.5R)
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.30
CRUDE closed 50% @84.00 target (+3.4R)
USDCAD long 1.01850 stop 1.01550 PT 1.0275 / 1.039
EURUSD closed 50% @3R 1.3035 (+1.5R)
CRUDE closed 25% @83.00 (+2.3R)
GBPJPY long 142.75 stop 1.4235 PT 144.50 countertrend
EURGBP short 0.8650 stop 0.8675 trendline break PT 84.60
CRUDE short 83.00 stop 83.45 PT 81.65 (hourly inside bar)
CRUDE addition closed 82.60 (+1.3R) - end of day.
AUDJPY long 85.80 stop 85.60 PT 87 off daily TL support
EURUSD short closed 25% @1.2965 - 1.618 fib (+1.45R)
EURGBP closed 50% @3R 85.75 (+1.5R)
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0275 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
CRUDE short 86.75 stop 87.15  PT 84 - 1/4
EURUSD short 1.3110 stop 1.3135 PT 1.30 - 1/4
USDCAD long 1.01850 stop 1.01550 PT 1.0275 / 1.039 - 1/2
EURGBP short 0.8650 stop 0.8675 PT 0.8446 - 1/2
GBPJPY long 142.75 stop 1.4235 PT 144.50
AUDJPY long 85.80 stop 85.60 PT 87

Chart of the day:
AUDUSD weekly - trendline support has broken today.  If we close the end of the week below here then things get interesting, when this happened in January there was good follow through.

USDCAD has done the same.
Weekly trendline resistance is broken.   These are my "canary in the coal mine" pairs for trend change.


  1. Mornin Nic, I think that there is far more behind these debt restructuring rumours than we know and I think germany is pushing for that restructuring before they commit one eur. Gold n treasuries seem to be the beneficiaries along with USD n Yen. Commodities startin to feel a lil shakey. Just short dow, crude n euraud here.

  2. Yeah I agree.
    Indices right on that support line, I am wondering if we bounce here.
    If cable breaks 1.5130 then much farther to fall.

  3. The more I think about it, this oil spill has got to be more negative for crude than positive in the long run. Aside from some short term supply shortages in the gulf the long term will be positive for Obama's alternative energy plans.

  4. love the smell of napalm in the markets

  5. I think someone has turned the algo's off.

  6. I think the algo's are spun and dont know up from down...

    Nic, I'm looking at that FXY ETF... what pair in fx should I be watching to track that fund?


    Do you have an opinion on that?

  7. talk about festival of the lemmings... gold found support at the hourly 200 lwma thus far.

  8. silver on approach to 4 hrly 220 sma

  9. Silver got taken to the woodshed today!

    I-Man watch USDJPY spot or in the futures watch JY at CME

  10. They are going to be some ugly candles tonight in the indexes and commodities for sure.
    Silver got taken to the woodshed - 5.2% today already

  11. agreed. todays silver close will be very interesting. looking back these types of selloffs are usually a 2 to 3 day event before some kind of stabilisation...daily chart looking very dubious.

  12. Gotta love the short set-up on Crude daily today. Just shows that a technical picture can often give way to movement that 'pundits' have trouble finding a fundamental or market related reason for!!

  13. Hi Grim, True blue, trust the charts.

  14. I know ... I was just sitting here looking at it like a muppet. Nice hourly bear flag or 4hr inside bar. Can't catch them all :)

  15. Flag is still there on gold, I think I am going to wait til tomorrow now.