Tuesday, June 22, 2010

UK Budget day

The new team Macro-Man thought the Chinese fake-out was one of the best jokes ever and a masterclass in Central Bank currency management. A great read.

We are about to get the UK budget and I am watching my cable position.  If it comes out sterling negative I will add some sterling shorts or I will add on a bounce because I think this pull-back week is set to continue.
Structure breaks have occurred and cable has fallen out of its ascending channel (4hr chart) and targets to the downside are 1.450, 1.4350 and a retest of the lows.
GBPJPY is testing trendline support and looks the best choice on a sterling-negative budget.  Every approach to 136 in this pair has been sold.
GBPCHF does not look like such a good short but EURGBP looks like a good buy with an upside target of 0.8550 and resistance at 84.20.
GBPAUD, my favourite risk meter still has a big gap to fill on the upside from Sunday's open and I would sell a spike up in that pair to 1.70 or 1.7050.

Gold finally fell off its perch and downside fibonacci targets are  1230, 1196 and 1168.
Apart from cable I expect dollar crosses to trade quietly before tomorrow's FOMC but it is Turnaround Tuesday so we shall see.

CRUDE closed 50% @3R 78.10 (+1.5R)
GBPUSD closed 50% @3R 1.4715 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @ 3R 79.65 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 - 50% retrace of Mon drop
AUDJPY short 79.60 stop 79.95 - addition
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0275 (+1.5R)

Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - 1/2 + 79.60 stop 79.95
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - 1/2 + 78.60 stop 79.10
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460


  1. euro. unlucky nic ola

    yes i shorted there then happy to reverse as it was off 1hr bottom boll band which on the smaller tf are kinda parallel indicating range. initial target is 1.2340 up at top of boll band. Although if price comes back down through middle band i'll short again [if i have a signal] for a better position going down.

  2. Consolidation day ... SPX looks heavy now and EURUSD is two equal swings off low so might go now or it might just be one of those sideways days ...

  3. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8565245.stm

  4. I might leave it til after FOMC tomorrow now.

  5. very spacious place innit. off to the hotel gyyyyym

  6. whats the equal swings theory?

  7. AB=CD a measured move. The market often makes its move in two equal swings before reversing. It is sometimes called market symmetry. Sometimes it makes three equal moves and then it is called a "three drives pattern".
    The fibonacci queen is big on measured moves and a lot of pit traders use them too.

  8. fibonacci queen ? you in her room? read her book? fibs on price line? say more.
    i use 15m. will take a look.

  9. I am not in her room but I have her book in pdf if you e-mail me :)

  10. "Equities for the past 11 years have fallen the week after June expiries (Hat tip to Nic)."

    What software do you use to find these patterns?

  11. I have a couple of harmonic pattern searching EA's that work on metatrader if you email me.
    For equities the guy at www.harmonictrader.com has a good one including a free one that searches yahoo EOD charts.

  12. There is a one for e-signal too ...

  13. I posted some harmonic patterns on Monday here:

  14. Cool thanks.

    I don't have metatrader. I trade through InteractiveBrokers and they don't support it yet.

    I might need to buy it and get a separate data vendor.

  15. Depends what you trade. You can get a demo metatrader account for free and run the pattern searcher and then trade through your regular account.
    Metastocks is metatrader for stocks too

  16. Well if I can help let me know.
    https://www.fxgroundworks.com/ send out harmonics signals for fx pairs, I haven't tried them but I hear they are v good. If you open a an account (even a small one) with forex.com you can get the service free.

    Robert Miners "dynamic trader" software does harmonic patterns too http://www.harmonicedge.com/

    I have heard that someone is setting up ninja trader to pattern search too.