UK Budget day

The new team Macro-Man thought the Chinese fake-out was one of the best jokes ever and a masterclass in Central Bank currency management. A great read.

We are about to get the UK budget and I am watching my cable position.  If it comes out sterling negative I will add some sterling shorts or I will add on a bounce because I think this pull-back week is set to continue.
Structure breaks have occurred and cable has fallen out of its ascending channel (4hr chart) and targets to the downside are 1.450, 1.4350 and a retest of the lows.
GBPJPY is testing trendline support and looks the best choice on a sterling-negative budget.  Every approach to 136 in this pair has been sold.
GBPCHF does not look like such a good short but EURGBP looks like a good buy with an upside target of 0.8550 and resistance at 84.20.
GBPAUD, my favourite risk meter still has a big gap to fill on the upside from Sunday's open and I would sell a spike up in that pair to 1.70 or 1.7050.

Gold finally fell off its perch and downside fibonacci targets are  1230, 1196 and 1168.
Apart from cable I expect dollar crosses to trade quietly before tomorrow's FOMC but it is Turnaround Tuesday so we shall see.


CRUDE closed 50% @3R 78.10 (+1.5R)
GBPUSD closed 50% @3R 1.4715 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @ 3R 79.65 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 - 50% retrace of Mon drop
AUDJPY short 79.60 stop 79.95 - addition
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0275 (+1.5R)


Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - 1/2 + 79.60 stop 79.95
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - 1/2 + 78.60 stop 79.10
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460