Thursday, June 24, 2010

Thursday 24 June

As I said last night I am still in sell rally mode.  With big moves in the London session the US session could start with a bit of a rally but I am still looking for 1078 then 1065 in the S+P and 73.75 in crude and 1222/1215 next in Gold.
The move down in EURGBP has been relentless and stopped cable falling but below the 1.50 level I still like it short and EURGBP is now on a big weekly SR level from 2008 and could find support here or at 81.00 to help cable shorts.
Target for EURUSD is still 1.21 / 1.2150 for now
Target for AUDUSD 0.8575 / 0.8550
Target for AUDJPY 76.50

CRUDE short 76.00 stop 76.50 PT 73.75
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
GOLD short 1234 stop 1238 PT 1215
GOLD stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short 77.35 stop 77.75 PT 76.50/80 addition
CRUDE closed breakeven - trade not working
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
USDCAD closed balance 1.0425 dbl top (+2.25R)
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80 - TL/resistance line touch
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50 - addition

Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85  PT 76.80 / 75.60 - 1/4 position
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 PT 74.50  - 1/4 position
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80

PS, thank you for the messages, I am fine.  The earthquake was scary, some pictures fell down but it didn't last very long.

Update:  USDJPY is at a daily trendline / channel bottom.  If it finds support here then the XXXJPY's aren't going to work.  I am watching this one.   Obviously if it falls out here then we look good.

GBPAUD at interesting S&R level and 50fib to reload shorts.  4hr chart

USDCAD has broken trendline resistance, 4hr chart.  This pair is normally a good leading indicator of which way we are going.  BUT is at 61.8fib of last swing so ... we watch

EURGBP weekly
Big support level has held ... and a good bounce

Watching for a breakdown of this wedge


  1. Morning Nic!

    Hope you werent too shaken up yesterday...

    Thats Jah trying to shake some sense into the Canadian housing market.

    Re: AUDJPY where are you watching this morning for resistance? Its been trending very nicely, but the hourly looks like it wants to waterfall...

    Been burned before in this one, so expecting a bit of a bounce at the ny open... what do you say?

  2. Hello I-man
    I am looking to re-sell AUDJPY at 78.00 or 78.35

  3. Hi Nic,

    How are you doing? didn't know until this post that you live in Canada. Hope all is well. Having been through earthquake myself in 2001 that killed over 20,000 people in India, I know it can be quite devastating.

    My cable shorts are still hanging in there but bleeding big time. My stop is at 1.5060 and I am targeting 1.4650 but its looking like a distant possibility.

    What are your thoughts on that?


  4. Hi Pulkit
    It wasn't anything as bad as your earthquake, just scary when you don't know what it is. I thought a truck had hit my house!

    Cable has been held up by the big drops in EURGBP, but EURGBP is hitting some big levels now and should allow cable to fall soon (I hope). 1.50 is a big level and has fib clusters too so I am short and looking for it to hold. 1.4850 and 1.4650 are the same targets I have and when the FX options expire at 1400 GMT I am looking to see a drop after that.

  5. Back in an hour, Good luck with your trades

  6. Sweet... we're on the same page then.

  7. Thanks Nic. Lets hope so. I also believe this drop in EURGBP is holding cable up and it will need a strong fundamental catalyst for the next move up - which I hardly see happening from UK at this point in time. All good news are priced in and so hopefully we'll see some profit taking/short covering in EURGBP to move cable towards 1.4850.

    Have a good day.


  8. I-Man, AUDJPY may not retrace if the market falls off early ...

  9. Pretty nice bear flags in hourly AUD crosses

  10. The Apple store in NY has a line up 5 blocks long for the new I-Phone .... bubblicious

  11. I added a short AUDJPY but it has to break support at 77 or I will cut it

  12. Likewise crude has to break the big round 75 number ...

  13. Added GBPAUD and USDCAD. We could go either way here.

  14. If you are wondering why I am posting so much, its nerves, I am on the edge of my chair watching Isner and Mahut

  15. GBPJPY breakdown imminent maybe, I am posting chart.

  16. EURUSD is a perfect short setup, two equal moves off the lows and a bearish gartley fib pattern

  17. This is starting to look like the flash crash. Just saying that's how it is setting up

  18. what do you make of the zerohedge article

    'Meet The New Regime: Welcome AUDJPY, Goodbye EURJPY...Anyone tracking the FX-ES trade will now need to recalibrate their models to be driven of the Aussie-Yen,...'

    i've been trading ej. much better than euro.

  19. I 100% agree.
    AUD is more correlated with the indices and if you adjust your stopsize/risk instead of using a fixed stop then AUDJPY always has better risk:reward.

  20. jeepers. that audjpy has some moves. i can see why you like it miss big pips. :)

    did u get any of that may action?

  21. mmm not seeing a lot of difference between between aj and ej?

  22. The difference is usually in the stop size, you can usually get tighter stops with AJ.
    But if you like EJ then keep at it.