Wednesday, June 23, 2010

FOMC day

Quiet morning, England world cup day, Wimbledon and then this afternoon FOMC!
Another winning day for the bears yesterday and the S&P back below the 200 daily SMA.
Chinese banks apparently bought up the USD vs the Yuan again last night so no big change there.  I wonder how much longer we are going to keep watching it.
My view hasn't changed since Monday and I am still selling rallies and expect the down moves to continue for a bit longer.  I will post a chart if I see anything interesting.  

Sterling is well bid and GBPAUD is on the move this morning.  It has bounced off the 61.8fib retracement and should go to the 38.2 fib next at around 1.7250 which is also a good SR level.  I have taken a long entry but I might be a bit late for the train.

CRUDE is approaching the bottom of the rising channel.  I will add more short looking for a break of the channel at 74.50 / 75.00

EURGBP long 82.70 stop 82.57 PT 85.00
EURGBP stopped out (-1R)
Cable balance stopped out (-0.5R)
CRUDE short addition closed 50% @3R 77.10 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @3R 78.55 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD long 1.7050 stop 1.70 PT 1.7250
CRUDE original short closed 25% @6R 76.60 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 76.40 stop 70.80 PT 74.50 bearflag break
CRUDE short today closed 50% @3R 75.20 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY short closed 25% @6R 78.75 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY addition closed 50% @3R 78.55 (+1.5R)
USDCAD closed 25% @6R 1.0350 (+1.5R)
CRUDE second short closed 25% @6R (+1.5R)
GBPAUD closed 1.7085 (+0.7R) - Pre Fed Announcement
CRUDE addition today closed 75.60 (+1R) - Pre Fed announcement
AUDJPY addition closed balance 78.20 (+2R) - Pre Fed announcement.

Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85  PT 76.80 / 75.60 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 PT 74.50  - 1/4 position
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460 - 1/4 position

Evening update.
Price spikes post FOMC have stalled at the 50fib retracement.  I am still in sell rally mode so will be adding some shorts.


  1. is crude your favourite? how is it to trade?

  2. Hi Nic,

    What is your take on Cable? After a sharp rise in past 24 hours, do you see further strength or would you sell here? If sell here, where would you keep your stops?


  3. Hi Pulkit
    I am not buying here, I like it short.
    It does depend what US stocks do but I prefer the short side.

  4. Crude is my favourite, if I could only trade one thing then that would be it.
    The risk:reward works

  5. Pulkit, I don't know if I am going to do much more. The USA and UK are playing football today and then the FOMC meeting is in 5 hours so I don't think there will be much volume or movement.

  6. Thanks Nic.

    I am short cable from 1.4850 and have my S/L at 1.5050, aiming for 1.4650 and 1.45.

    I dont have a buy button in cable :-)

    I really wish US goes through the second round. They were harsh done by last round and so were the Aussies.

    Go the Aussies and USA :-)


  7. which metatrader do you use for oil/gold?

  8. Yeah, I don't recommend it, I am moving. I have lost all my price history ...

  9. New low for Gold, nice bear flag break. 1222 next

  10. How sad about my Gold. I shorted Gold at 1260 on Friday but closed at 1255 as it closed there on Friday. A weekly close above 1250 was supposed to be quite bullish...

    Ah well... I keep missing out on good opportunities :-(

    Game is underway.

  11. Very good level for your stop Pulkit, good luck

  12. i wasn't happy with broco.

    i used to only trade oil-that's how oiltanker came about but the credit crunch sent me off in different directions.

  13. At 1075 in S&P cash we have a "three drives pattern", three equal swings off the highs and I will get out of my shorts. 1077 the 61.8fib too.

  14. well Oil is pretty good at the moment. No crazy moves and easy to read I have found.

  15. EURCHF is at 1.618fibo and a good place for it to bounce.

  16. these people just use fibs by the look of it.

  17. Thanks Richard.
    If you go and look at the video's here they use fibs very similarly to me:

    Sign up for the free daily video, its good