Daily bearish gartley patterns are setting up on cable, FTSE and AUDUSD. USDJPY is stuck in a tighter and tighter wedge.
Spanish debt is the big concern and spreads of Spanish bonds over bunds at record wide spreads and yields at 8 year highs. Today Spain has a visit from the IMF, releases its bank stress test results and has a bond auction of 10 and 30 year bonds which will test market confidence and set the tone for the euro. I am not tempted to buy or sell EURUSD here, but EUR crosses look interesting (EURGBP, EURAUD etc).
Cable is heavy with BP news and anticipated flow of $20 bln from UK pensioners to Obama's slush fund (joke) and news that the FSA will be abolished in yet more financial reform. Sterling news is retail sales at 08:30GMT and CBI Industrial trends at 10:00 GMT.
Futures look heavy and as though we will slide but I am expecting one more push higher before I sell .. US news this morning is employment claims at 12:30GMT and CPI m/m.
Update: Cable breaks channel support ... I am selling sterling
GBPJPY short 1.340 stop 1.3450 PT 1.33 / 1.3250
USDCHF short balance closed 1.1310 (+0.64R)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1R)
AUDCHF closed 50% @3R 0.9630 (+1.5R)
CRUDE long 77.00 stop 76.60 PT 78.50
USDJPY short 91.07 stop 91.47 PT 89.50 / 88.50
CRUDE closed 77.20 - not working (+0.5R)
GBPJPY short 134.50 stop 1.3490 PT 132 / 131
CRUDE short 76.90 stop 77.30 PT 75.00
GBPJPY short stopped out again (-1R)
I have the following positions open:
AUDCHF short 0.9780 stop 0.9830 PT 0.955 / 0.9275 - 1/2
EURCAD long 1.2550 stop 1.2460 PT 1.3330
Posts
Good to have you back!
ReplyDeleteHey Maverick!!
ReplyDeleteHey Nic, i'm getting into these Gartleys thanks to Mark, you start to see them everywhere, same with wolf waves (ha). Gartley developing on ES also, that 1126 is the tgt also -23% and the bigger 50%. Well lets see, was hoping Cable would make it to around 49 before the fall, still chance though. Keep well, Greg.
ReplyDeleteLooks like cable might, a fakey breakout and now we have one more push.
ReplyDeleteGold trying once more for those highs.
ReplyDeleteYeah Gold is trying. If it triple tops I might sell it :)
ReplyDeleteThat steep rising wedge is normally bearish and sentiment is pretty extreme. The risk-on rally hasn't caught up with Gold yet. I thought the successful spanish bond auction might.
1122 was my level for S&P ... I hate the first hour after the open but we may drop from here.
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY looks like it is breaking down here. Strong US bond market suggests lower ...
ReplyDeleteBig squeeze is on in EURCAD ...
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY testing bottom of bigger wedge support at 90.50
ReplyDeleteThis needs to break for shorts to continue to work, big level for USDJPY
GOLD --- is almost at that level. Triple top or new highs?
ReplyDeleteHugh Hendry is enlightening reading. He has an explanation for what will trigger JPY strength.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/206481-hendry-s-eclectica-builds-asian-bear-portfolio-to-hedge-against-hyperinflation?source=feed
Thanks I <3 Hugh Hendry.
ReplyDeleteWATCH EURCHF. Testing all time lows. SNB have said they will not intervene but ...
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY 200day SMA at 90.90 so if we get back above it I am out.
ReplyDeletelooks like our friends where there again at 1106 mini s+p
ReplyDeleteThe 200 daily SMA is causing a hiccup shorting the SPX. I think we go down to 1090 from here and then another swing higher ...
ReplyDeleteHugh Hendry news:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-mike-novogratz-gaim-2010-6
Did you short gold Nic ?
ReplyDeleteI did not ... yet. I have been distracted by the BP hangings on capital hill.
ReplyDeleteThats a nice 4hr doji / shooting star ... I might trade it short
Here's another...love the limo he drives!
ReplyDeletehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8565245.stm
The 10 yr and JPY and gold are a telling that things are rather freaky out there under the surface. 'They' hear wings flapping, but as yet the bird is not in vision at the NYSE. Another 300 billion printed somewhere will likely see gold pop through its ceiling and into clear air. The World Cup is providing an ebullient backdrop for global social mood atm, when it's done, what then? Torschlussplanik?
JPY over 93 and heading north, risk on.
Yeah the 10yr yield chart and USDJPY look the same, teetering on support.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry index down now 15 consecutive days and the warnings about earnings are starting to pile up ...
Hi Nic. Thanks for the eurgbp and eurcad trades. I am still in the eurcad, would you recommend adding to that? my first position is at BE and with your PT so far away I am looking for a place to add, either after retrace to perhaps 12690 or breakout past yesterday high. Really glad you are back and appreciate your analysis. Larry
ReplyDeleteGBP may finally be breaking down.
ReplyDeleteHi Larry
ReplyDeleteYeah I am annoyed I didn't add to EURCAD. I have target of 1.2950 then 1.31
I have sold some AUDUSD. I think its a pullback day and risk is going to sell off but its also big option expiry so "expect the unexpected" day. I am not really going to take any other positions and wait for weekly close.
ReplyDeleteEURCHF breaking big levels here
ReplyDelete