Friday 11 June 2010

After some impressive rallying from the lows on Tuesday I would not be surprised to see some pullback or downward correction today before continuing higher.  EURUSD has some big levels to get through above for the rally to continue and London is half way through Friday and the first day of the world cup, and I am wondering how many in NY are already in the Hamptons.
Economic data at 08:30 NY time (retail sales then later consumer sentiment) might be a driver.
Ugly manufacturing numbers and the BP problems have hit sterling hard today and price action in EURGBP might be supporting EUR more than any optimism about the EU.

EURUSD (4hr chart)
If the weekly candle closes here it is a bullish piercing line pattern but is underneath the lows of the past two weeks where support becomes resistance so technically momentum still bearish and we need to break up above 1.2150 to get us up the first step safely.

EURJPY 4hr chart
Holding below previous trendline support and in a pretty clear range this chart makes me think we dip lower today before moving higher.




USDJPY is in the middle of a rising channel and stuck around the 91.50 level.  I think it is being moved by the JPY crosses at the moment rather than under its own steam and I am passing on this chart.

CRUDE 240 min
Crude has made a good rally off the lows, higher lows and now a higher high and has good support again above 74.50.  Profit taking today could send it lower to test 73.00 but my long target for this swing is 78 (1.27 fib extension of the swing off the low and where this swing is equal distance to the first one) and 80.00

SPX
S&P is at the 61.8fib of the June high to low and *should* dip back to the 38.2 fib and previous support at 1067 before moving higher where I expect 1108 and the range high to be tested next.  However bullish momentum is quite strong and a bull flag and breakout are possibilities.
1107 needs to be surpassed to confirm the double bottom.

EURGBP 240min chart
Double bottom?  This will be very supportive for EUR and this trade has some very good Risk reward potential for a retest of 0.85 at least.



Update:

Continuing yesterdays contrarian indicator theme.
This is the cover story from Business Week.  We may have a temporary bottom in stocks.