Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tuesday 29 June

It's Turnaround Tuesday my (least) favourite day of the week!
Big breakouts, gaps down and moves overnight.  It is end of Month / quarter / half year rebalancing so things could get whacky.
Here is what I am looking at to see which way we go ...

EURUSD at 1.2140 is the 50% retracement of the June rally off the lows and also where EURUSD has made two equal swings from the 21 June high and is also a level where buyers have come out before.   The equal swings make 1.2140 more likely support than the 61.8fib at 1.21   If EURUSD is going to get a foothold and reverse that is the level I am looking at.
CRUDE 75.50 - 74.75 support area, 50%back, two measured moves and trendline support.
AUDUSD 85.00 round number support, two equal moves and previous resistance becomes support.
Measuring the wedge in the SPX and projecting it from the breakout point suggests 1050 target for SPX

CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 77.75 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 86.90 (+1.5R)
NZDJPY short closed 50% @3R 62.50 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD  short closed balance at 85.50 target (+5R)
NZDJPY short closed balance at 61.60 target (+3.3R)
EURGBP short closed 81.00 (+2.5R) - 1.41 fib ext
EURJPY short 1.08 stop 1.0840 target TBD
CRUDE short closed balance 75.50 (+5.4R)
EURJPY short closed 1.07.75 - not working (+0.5R)
EURUSD long 1.2165 stop 1.2140 PT 1.2340
AUDJPY long 75.35 stop 74.95 PT 77.40
CRUDE long 75.50 stop 75.20 PT 77.00
CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long 75.25 stop 74.85 PT 77.00
FTSE long 4902 stop 4882 PT 5031
FTSE short stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD closed 1.22 - market shanking (+1.4R)
CRUDE closed 75.50 - market shanking (+1R)

Open positions: FLAT

I am really not sure what today is going to do, I think we could rally and I have closed my shorts from yesterday to protect profits and because they hit targets but if today sets up to be a big fatfinger-dump-continuation day then I will get back in short.


  1. Hi Nic,

    Any thoughts on cable? I have re-entered my short at 1.5090 after it failed to break and close above 1.5130 (Previous major S, now R).

    I am aiming at 1.4950 as my first target and then 1.4860 as my second.

    Your thoughts?


  2. Hi Pulkit
    I agree with you, Good luck!

  3. not expecting anything till after 3/4pm

  4. If EJ double dips or makes two equal swings down on monthly chart then the level is 81.00 ....

  5. Drunk trader banned for buying 7m barrels of oil after binge http://bit.ly/d6RT1D

  6. my 'smart money indicator' suggests they will be buyers at these levels. :)

  7. ha. did they take delivery? yes the markets are 'rational'

  8. We are coming up on those levels ...

  9. Ouch - consumer confidence numbers are big drop from expectations.

    CV gave me this Market Signal to watch out for:

  10. ha. my metatrader has gone down. that's my signal. Always goes down near a big move.

  11. Just closing that EJ short.
    I think the easy shorts are over and time to start looking that way, yes Richard

  12. i might be early. i would have preferred after 4pm

  13. Latest news...Amorous bankers caught playing FTSE under the table...

  14. Hey Nic,

    Hope all is going well? It's been a while.


  15. Ams
    Really good to see you, how you doing?

  16. OK Richard
    Lets watch these lows get retested and see if they hold. If they do I am a buyer.

  17. There is supposed to be a big option barrier in USDJPY at 88.00
    If they defend it and it bounces just above will help your EURJPY

  18. Not to bad Nic!!

    Trading has been a bit volatile in last few days. Specially damn pound. It's just pis**** me off. There is a large BUY order for one of the banks to fill. Hence this sucker is not dropping. Else it would have dropped like a stone today.

    I am quite surprised with UJ from last few days (no interventionfrom jap?) and Asian currencies like Kiwi and Aussie. Regardless of better inertest rates they are not in demand. With Euro, seems market has given hope.

    I wanted to short crude @ 78 but missed the boat. Will wait for the retrace if that happens.

    Today's S&P close is the key. I reckon we will close above 1040 and will drop later. Perhaps after NFP. Next support I see @ 870ishh

  19. The pound has been absolutely brutal to shorts.
    Remember the last day of the month the UK makes a big payment to Germany for all the military bases and salaries and EURGBP always bounces last day of the month some time in London session.
    If the lows hold today and we don't close below that 1040 SPX level we could be lined up for another face ripper rally.

  20. Hmmm, once this order is filled. I am sure mighty keeper of pound will let it loose to exploit. Might be first in the queue :-)

    More bullish means more to downside to follow.


  21. OK 61.8fib retrace in SPX holds, I am buying

  22. some cb intervention on euro would be nice about now. :)

    my smart money indicator is still bullish.