Friday, June 25, 2010

Friday 25 June

I am thinking about exiting my shorts on down swings today and getting flat over the weekend.  The G20 is setting up for some disagreements and I am not comfortable gaming central banks.
I am expecting a bounce either in the US session or the start of next week and another swing up .... how far that upswing takes us is anyone's guess.

EURGBP looks to be double bottoming above weekly SR but spreads on Greek bonds are at record wides again and yields on 10 yr Greek paper are over 10%.  It makes you wonder how long the EU will keep buying all this stuff.  I am still looking for a bounce in EURGBP to 83 initially then 85.50.

CHFJPY stopped out - TL break - (-1R)
GBPAUD stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY short 134.00 stop 1.3450 PT 132.00 - see chart from yesterday
CRUDE 1st short closed balance @ 76.00 (+1.8R)
CRUDE 2nd short closed balance @76.00 (+1.3R)
AUDJPY closed balance 1st short 77.10 (+2.8R)
AUDJPY closed yest short 77.10 (+2.2R)
CABLE short closed @3R 1.4860 (+3R)
GBPJPY short closed 1.3350 (+1R)

Open positions:

CABLE has broken and retested the trendline resistance I was looking at (thick line) and now looks set for higher next week.  

USDJPY is at the bottom of its channel and finding support.  It is a bullish bat fibonacci pattern so I am looking to buy this pair.

Hence I have now also closed GBPJPY shorts.  If another drop shapes up today I will re-short because this set up looks best to me.

Possible right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders forming but holding below 1.2330 SR and broken short term trendline support.  A close today between 1.2150 and 1.2465 makes it a weekly inside bar and a pullback in a possible bigger uptrend targeting 1.26

Gold is at big SR resistance at 1250 and also the 61.8fib retracement level.  For me this is a low risk entry short, even though it is against the bigger up trend.


  1. do you like 8hr [session] candles? often good turn timing and sr levels. EJ was easy short.

  2. I don't use the 8hr candles, but I will take a look now, thanks :)

  3. Regarding closing out shorts:
    I have an open short position on ES from 1110 (its at 1070 now) and been contemplating whether I should close it today and not hold anything over the weekend. This thing looks like it wants to bounce again. But then, I don't want to close out a good position and see the market drop on Monday knowing I left a lot of money on the table.

    I’ll wait to see how the market behaves during the day and make a decision then.

  4. for metatrader i use the custom candle indicator on a blank 1hr chart set to start 8am, 4pm etc. or sometimes the periodcon indicator.

  5. the ej 110 is a massive level and if you are into that kind of thing a final shoulder in an inverse hs on 8hr chart assuming it holds.

  6. I agree with you about EJ, everything is shaping up for a turn higher, hence I am out of my shorts.

  7. Don't cross me, I agree it was a tough one for me too. This rally before the NY session opens suggests a drop when NY opens, but I do think we are shaping up for a bounce.
    I am looking hard at the S&P and the hard question for me is is this a bounce and then lower lows or a move to higher prices. I am leaning towards the higher prices but open to both.

  8. It is Friday, it is hot and sticky in NY and Chicago and some shorts will want to close out and get on with the weekend. I think we could get a bit of a squeeze up later.

  9. btw, i have downloaded and installed metatrader so I can play around with harmonic patterns with the demo account they gave me.

    I am not too familiar with harmonic stuff though, so I’ll problly be hitting ya’ll up with questions.

  10. OK well if you would like the indicators send me an e-mail - link in my profile.

  11. My friend CV at traders anonymous thinks today is setting up as another flash crash based on the fractals and the similarity to the beginning of May. Just thought I would mention it.

  12. The GDP revision lower might be a trigger

  13. pillar trading reckon UJ up

    EJ doesn't want to go down.

  14. I hope so! I'll be partying hard this weekend if the market crashes :)

    Have you noticed that CL and EUR have somewhat decoupled from ES this morning. The 3 of them usually move together tick by tick.

    I don’t see any emails on your profile.

    This metatrader is cool pretty cool. How come its only limited to FX? Or is it because i have the demo version?

  15. Glad I'm not the only one feeling a shift...

    I think its going to be a quiet grind up to 1080 or so on ES today.

    Friday, light volume. Tired, volatility strung out traders...

    Otherwise, the bulls are going to have to defend 1040 today, and not sure they will have the stomach for it after all we've seen thus far in the week.

    If we do drop, its going to fast, and hard to catch unless you're already short. Chasing waterfalls is a difficult proposition.

    More likely that we carve out some short term support at 1068 and try to make a lower high early next week... 1086 maybe... 1106 if bulls are lucky.

    I'm just going to practice some more complicated order entries on the simulator today I think.



  17. There is a metatrader for stocks called metastocks. Some brokers have it.

    Nictrades AT gmail

  18. Picture of the devastation of the earthquake in Ottawa the other day - sad really

  19. Haha... looks more like devastation from a drunken party guest.

  20. the cat likes native radio. she must be a catmanche

    [comes and sits on the desk when i put it on]

  21. A face ripping rally, I should have bought crude.

  22. Metastocks is awful, get the demo of metatrader from broco then go > markets right click > show all.

    You'll get most bonds, indices, coms, and some blue chips :)


  24. Interesting, so there are different metatraders?

    The one that i downloaded this morning is from these guys:

  25. Today's action is so odd. Typically, EUR.USD/CL/ES move in sync, while ZN/ZB move the opposite.

    But now, CL and ZB are up big, EUR.USD up moderately, and ES sideways all morning

  26. Yeah it is a strange day. In the US the biggest financial reform since Sarbanes Oxley passed and stocks are flat.

    CAD and AUD are much more correlated with stocks at the moment

  27. Hi Nic,

    Hope you're having a good weekend. My cable shorts are still bleeding and it went pass their S/L (but I removed it before going to bed on Friday night). Do you think the run higher on Friday NY session is a stop-hunt exercise or a larger move up?

    If price stays above 1.5060 by EU open on monday, I will close my shorts.

    In your opinion, what is the right approach?

    BTW, I have fully scaled in my position size, so I wont be adding to this loser but willing to reduce half at 1.4950, if we get there.



  28. Hi Pulkit
    I liked cable short below the 1.50, the 61.8 fib and the trendline resistance. It has broken and closed above those now and was pretty bullish all week when other markets were falling.
    EURGBP is the big driver here, and I don't think cable is a good short until EURGBP finds some support. It is about to retest the lows so we should see soon. If the lows at 81.80 in EURGBP don't hold then next likely level is 79.30
    Longer term I am still bearish cable but I think we are going to 1.5230 - 1.5250 before the next downswing now.
    Last week was a big green candle, we should retrace some before we go higher (perhaps to 1.50 or 1.4870)
    I don't like to tell you how to manage your trade, but sometimes its better to take a smaller loss and get a better entry later.

    Will post full analysis tonight. The direction for next week is not really clear at the moment, it may take a few days to see

  29. Thanks Nic. I just had a chance to read your message.

    So my painful cable short is officially ended :-(

  30. Ouch Pulkit,
    I hope it wasn't too painful.