Friday, June 18, 2010

Friday 18 June 2010 - Quadruple Witching

Quadruple Witching option expiry today would normally mean some volatility and unexpected moves although volatility has died a bit, I am not sure if it is the world cup.
We are definately set up for a pull back and risk-off Friday.  Strong bonds and strong Gold are not what you usually see together, Gold may have triple topped and bonds should help it as a short but it is hard to sell against such a strong trend.
The breakdown in USDJPY means that Yen crosses should be better shorts than USD crosses.

USDJPY has broken out of wedge support to the downside, with the help of strong bond market and downside target is the bottom of the rising channel around 89.50

AUDUSD has hit the 61.8fib and SR level at 0.87 and I am short looking for a pullback to 0.8550 SR and then 84 as a minimum target.  AUDUSD is a bearish gartley pattern.

Breaking big lows ... the SNB are now said to tolerate 1.30 and the market is going to test that ... it means CHF is not an attractive short while this is going on.

Broke trendline support, has fibonacci and structure support at 75 but the 61.8fib and SR level at 73 seem possible too.

I will add more charts in a bit but its all one trade and its all looking like risk off. GBPUSD and GBPJPY are also daily bearish gartley or butterfly patterns and also the FTSE index ...

Weakest currency today is NZD and the strongest is JPY so I am planning to sell NZDJPY which is also a bearish Gartley pattern on the daily chart and 4 hour wedge suggesting some energy is storing up ... target 62.25 & 61.75 and a stop above 64.20

AUDUSD short 0.87 stop 0.873 PT 0.8550 / 0.84
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 75.70 (+1.5R)
CRUDE balance stopped out @1R 76.50 (+0.5R)
NZDJPY short 64.18 stop 64.38, PT 62.25 - top of wedge

I have the following positions open:
AUDCHF short 0.9780 stop 0.9830 PT 0.955 / 0.9275 - 1/2
EURCAD long 1.2550 stop 1.2460 PT 1.3330
USDJPY short 91.07 stop 91.47 PT 89.50 / 88.50

For the past 11 years, every year, the week after June Options expiration has been negative for the stock market.


  1. Hey Nic- nice analysis as ever. Hope you are well. Any news of the move? DC

  2. I am seeing many references to the Gartley pattern but would like to know where I can read an explanation of the pattern and how to use it.

  3. Mornin Nic, agree markets getting choppy on lower volumes. With Germany down 1 zip to serbia and playing with one man down might be a lil quiet for a bit. Also it didnt help that again yesterday we saw a big bid turn up at 1106 in the s+p...

  4. larry, shoot me ur email and ill send you an article

  5. Me neither Bear? Can u send me an article pls?

  6. send me an email -

  7. ok emails sent, some weekend reading for you both

  8. For the past 11 years the week after June Options expiration has been negative for the stock market, every time.

  9. This sideways market is a killer. I am off ...
    Hope you have a great weekend.