Not around today but back tomorrow, sorry and Thursday is Canada Day.
Today is last day of the month and quarter and can be an odd duck day when currencies that have been beaten down get bought and currencies that have outperformed get sold. On that basis GBP, JPY and CHF may have a bad day and EUR, AUD get bought, etc. Also the last day of the month often sees a jump in EURGBP due to flow in the London session.
Good luck!
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Tuesday 29 June
It's Turnaround Tuesday my (least) favourite day of the week!
Big breakouts, gaps down and moves overnight. It is end of Month / quarter / half year rebalancing so things could get whacky.
Here is what I am looking at to see which way we go ...
EURUSD at 1.2140 is the 50% retracement of the June rally off the lows and also where EURUSD has made two equal swings from the 21 June high and is also a level where buyers have come out before. The equal swings make 1.2140 more likely support than the 61.8fib at 1.21 If EURUSD is going to get a foothold and reverse that is the level I am looking at.
CRUDE 75.50 - 74.75 support area, 50%back, two measured moves and trendline support.
AUDUSD 85.00 round number support, two equal moves and previous resistance becomes support.
Measuring the wedge in the SPX and projecting it from the breakout point suggests 1050 target for SPX
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 77.75 (+1.5R)
Update:
I am really not sure what today is going to do, I think we could rally and I have closed my shorts from yesterday to protect profits and because they hit targets but if today sets up to be a big fatfinger-dump-continuation day then I will get back in short.
Big breakouts, gaps down and moves overnight. It is end of Month / quarter / half year rebalancing so things could get whacky.
Here is what I am looking at to see which way we go ...
EURUSD at 1.2140 is the 50% retracement of the June rally off the lows and also where EURUSD has made two equal swings from the 21 June high and is also a level where buyers have come out before. The equal swings make 1.2140 more likely support than the 61.8fib at 1.21 If EURUSD is going to get a foothold and reverse that is the level I am looking at.
CRUDE 75.50 - 74.75 support area, 50%back, two measured moves and trendline support.
AUDUSD 85.00 round number support, two equal moves and previous resistance becomes support.
Measuring the wedge in the SPX and projecting it from the breakout point suggests 1050 target for SPX
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 77.75 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 86.90 (+1.5R)
NZDJPY short closed 50% @3R 62.50 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed balance at 85.50 target (+5R)
NZDJPY short closed balance at 61.60 target (+3.3R)
EURGBP short closed 81.00 (+2.5R) - 1.41 fib ext
AUDUSD short closed balance at 85.50 target (+5R)
NZDJPY short closed balance at 61.60 target (+3.3R)
EURGBP short closed 81.00 (+2.5R) - 1.41 fib ext
EURJPY short 1.08 stop 1.0840 target TBD
CRUDE short closed balance 75.50 (+5.4R)
EURJPY short closed 1.07.75 - not working (+0.5R)
EURUSD long 1.2165 stop 1.2140 PT 1.2340
AUDJPY long 75.35 stop 74.95 PT 77.40
CRUDE long 75.50 stop 75.20 PT 77.00
CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long 75.25 stop 74.85 PT 77.00
FTSE long 4902 stop 4882 PT 5031
FTSE short stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD closed 1.22 - market shanking (+1.4R)
CRUDE closed 75.50 - market shanking (+1R)
Open positions: FLAT
CRUDE short closed balance 75.50 (+5.4R)
EURJPY short closed 1.07.75 - not working (+0.5R)
EURUSD long 1.2165 stop 1.2140 PT 1.2340
AUDJPY long 75.35 stop 74.95 PT 77.40
CRUDE long 75.50 stop 75.20 PT 77.00
CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE long 75.25 stop 74.85 PT 77.00
FTSE long 4902 stop 4882 PT 5031
FTSE short stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD closed 1.22 - market shanking (+1.4R)
CRUDE closed 75.50 - market shanking (+1R)
Open positions: FLAT
Update:
I am really not sure what today is going to do, I think we could rally and I have closed my shorts from yesterday to protect profits and because they hit targets but if today sets up to be a big fatfinger-dump-continuation day then I will get back in short.
Monday, June 28, 2010
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Click here to see if it is of interest too you
This is a pretty good offer :)
Monday 28 June Indecision
A sideways choppy day with most markets consolidating in low volume.
S&P is forming either a triangle before a big move to the upside from the bottom of the channel or a bear flag which will break to the downside and see us retest the lows. I am still leaning towards higher but open to both.
EURUSD looks to have broken down out of its channel. It had big falls today vs GBP & CHF. (But dollar buying vs SEK helped support EUR on rumours of a 0.25bps hike later this week & EURSEK is more liquid that USDSEK)
AUD, CAD and NZD traded sideways and AUD did not collapse with the big fall in Gold.
The June 2010 COMEX gold futures contract expired today. The rollover to the next contract likely contributed to this morning's plunge and means Gold could snap back sharply.
The S&P breakout will likely give the direction for risk for the next few days so time to wait and see ...
Open positions:
CRUDE short 78.75 stop 79.05 PT 77.00
AUD, CAD and NZD traded sideways and AUD did not collapse with the big fall in Gold.
The June 2010 COMEX gold futures contract expired today. The rollover to the next contract likely contributed to this morning's plunge and means Gold could snap back sharply.
The S&P breakout will likely give the direction for risk for the next few days so time to wait and see ...
Open positions:
CRUDE short 78.75 stop 79.05 PT 77.00
AUDUSD short 87.50 stop 87.70 PT 86.60
NZDJPY short 63.25 stop 63.50 PT 62.60 / 61.80
EURGBP short 81.75 stop 82.05 PT 80.25
Sunday 27 June
I am expecting risk to rally this week after last weeks pullback and the flat Friday into the G20. The slide in equities halted when the financial reform bill became a done deal, 2300 pages of new regulation that doesn't seem to address too big to fail, leverage, supervision, the ratings agencies or Fannie and Freddie.
Rien ne va plus.
Spookily at the request of the Chinese there was no mention of the Yuan in the G20 communique tonight.
"President Hu went so far as to ask that mild praise for Beijing’s recent decision to make the yuan slightly more flexible be removed from the final communiqué. And he made no mention of the issue in his broad-brush speech to fellow G20 leaders." Makes me think there will be no revaluation at all ...
Spreads on Greek bonds were really ugly last week which should have been more bearish for EUR but HSBC say it may have just been due to IBoxx changes
Difficult days will be end of month/quarter/half year on Wednesday where managers rebalancing could favour undervalued currencies over the star performers.
Friday is NFP
S&P
Weekly is a very bearish engulfing bar halted which found support at the 61.8 fib retracement of the rally from the lows and also the 01/02 June swing low. I have two scenarios for the S&P. Bigger picture and using measured moves I expect an upwards move equal to the one off the lows that takes the cash price to the 1158 level. But I can't ignore the weekly candle and that may mean we only rally to 1108 (61.8fib retracement of last weeks down move) and then rolls over and retests the 1040 lows.
We will find out when we hit 1108 but I am leaning towards the more bullish one because I think we may be in a rising channel which is much easier to see on the FTSE.
FTSE
I am bullish FTSE off the bottom of this channel as long as it holds but longer term bearish. The weekly candle is a big bearish engulfing and price appears to be setting up a big weekly bear flag pattern (downside target 4300) but I think we have one more run up before we go down but we may only make 5230 resistance instead of the top of the channel at 5380
Dollar Index
The bearish correction in the dollar index continues and I am looking for it to reach the 0.618fib retracement at 83.35 and the long term descending resistance line. However a measured move equal to the one down from the highs would target 82.50 and previous SR level of the
GOLD
Weekly hanging man doji is a possible bearish reversal for Gold but it is hard to sell against such a strong uptrend when the pullbacks are so shallow. I am looking for the high to be retested or a daily reversal candle before I short based on the weekly candle. More likely is a measured move equal to the rally from 219 April to 15 May which has a target of 1290 area which is also the 1.27 fib extension target. If you are bullish you could look for a pullback to 1240 or 1250 SR level to get long.
CRUDE
Weekly is a perfect hanging man doji after a big rally on Friday on news of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, now Hurricane Alex, which could be a bearish reversal and it is also the 618fib retracement of the big fall from the April highs. The hurricane and the falling dollar could keep a bid under Crude and makes me cautious and leaning towards bullish.
I like it short to start the week and then I would buy a pullback (77.00-77.50 maybe) with a target of 83
Major currencies
EURUSD daily chart
Weekly is an inside bar pullback and daily is bullish. This looks to be consolidating and not the best looking trade out there. I would buy a retest of 1.2330 or 1.2150 with a long target of 1.2650 initially. A break of the descending trendline sets up 1.30
Weekly and daily bullish cable has closed above the 61.98fib retracement and above the 1.50 round number level. Still forming a big bearish gartley pattern on the daily cable is set to push higher first I would buy a successful retest of 1.5010 with a target of 1.5250 and possibly 1.5350. If 1.50 does not hold 1.4850 is next support for a long entry.
Bearish correction has stopped at 61.8 fib retracement and Feb swing high levels. I expect a bounce here, and I am looking for price action to sell again at 1.1230 or 1.14 to short.
Weekly and daily bearish but price now stopped at 89.00 and ascending trendline support and a pretty good pivot zone where bids usually appear. Longer term I am bearish USDJPY back to the 09 lows but I like USDJPY long above this trendline to 0.91. A break of 89.00 has an equal measured move target short of 88.10 and a retest of the flash crash low.
Weekly high wave doji, sideways consolidation. Like the S&P I am not sure of direction and neutral waiting for more information. The daily is a bearish Gartley but if stocks continue to rally the pattern will fail. I am watching for .087 to hold as support and if it breaks then price action at 0.8550 to buy. Below 0.85 and I am looking for a retest of the lows at 0.8070
Weekly bullish engulfing, daily is bearish reversal off the top of a descending channel / weekly bull flag and 618 fib retracement. Daily could be forming an inverse head and shoulders. Like AUD the picture is not clear and we could have some more sideways consolidation but within the channel I favour more downside moves to 1.03 or 1.0220 and will look for price action there. A break of the channel to the upside means a test of 1.05 Until then I am waiting for more information.
Almost at the top of a clear descending channel I like this short below 0.72, first target 0.6580 support then 0.6260. A break of the channel to the upside has a target of 0.7630 high.
Bearish weekly engulfing candle, daily bearish but testing big weekly SR level at 0.8180
There is the potential for a bounce here with a potential double bottom on the daily and the upside target would be 0.8425 / 0.8550. A break and close below 0.8180 means next stop 80.25
There is the potential for a bounce here with a potential double bottom on the daily and the upside target would be 0.8425 / 0.8550. A break and close below 0.8180 means next stop 80.25
The 108.85 level is two equal measured moves down from the October 09 high and two consecutive daily dojis at the end of last week looks like EURJPY is trying to correct higher and could be a lower high. I like this long and a break of 113.40 and 114.0 then has a target of 116.80 and then 120.00
GBPJPY
After trading sideways for a couple of weeks this one is due for a breakout. I like this long and I would buy a dip to 1.32 or a break of the upper trendline and upside target is 139.25
AUDJPY
Bearish, AUDJPY has made two equal measured moves off the lows and the weekly candle is a bearish engulfing. I like this short initially with a downside target of 75.50 where I will be looking for price action to buy. Possible support at 76.80 and the flash crash low.
EURCHF
Bearish and ugly. There is a bearish bat pattern setting up on the weekly chart and I am looking for a drop from here to 1.32 area where there will be two equal measured moves down from 21 may high and it is the 61.8fib extension of the first swing. My bias is short to 1.32 and a buyer off that level.
GBPCHF weekly chart
I like this short! Triple top, descending trendline resistance from the 07 highs. Short targets 1.6090, 1.58
Monday trades:
After trading sideways for a couple of weeks this one is due for a breakout. I like this long and I would buy a dip to 1.32 or a break of the upper trendline and upside target is 139.25
Bearish, AUDJPY has made two equal measured moves off the lows and the weekly candle is a bearish engulfing. I like this short initially with a downside target of 75.50 where I will be looking for price action to buy. Possible support at 76.80 and the flash crash low.
Bearish and ugly. There is a bearish bat pattern setting up on the weekly chart and I am looking for a drop from here to 1.32 area where there will be two equal measured moves down from 21 may high and it is the 61.8fib extension of the first swing. My bias is short to 1.32 and a buyer off that level.
I like this short! Triple top, descending trendline resistance from the 07 highs. Short targets 1.6090, 1.58
Monday trades:
CRUDE short 78.75 stop 79.05 PT 77.00
AUDUSD short 87.50 stop 87.70 PT 85.50
USDJPY long 89.40 stop 89.10 PT 90.30
NZDJPY short 63.25 stop 63.50 PT 62.60 / 61.80
USDJPY stopped out (-1R)
EURGBP short 81.75 stop 82.05 PT 80.25
AUDUSD short 87.50 stop 87.70 PT 85.50
USDJPY long 89.40 stop 89.10 PT 90.30
NZDJPY short 63.25 stop 63.50 PT 62.60 / 61.80
USDJPY stopped out (-1R)
EURGBP short 81.75 stop 82.05 PT 80.25
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Sunday 27 June
I am late with analysis but working on it now and will have it up later. Most markets at inflection points and I am looking for a small pull back and a risk rally this week.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Friday 25 June
I am thinking about exiting my shorts on down swings today and getting flat over the weekend. The G20 is setting up for some disagreements and I am not comfortable gaming central banks.
I am expecting a bounce either in the US session or the start of next week and another swing up .... how far that upswing takes us is anyone's guess.
EURGBP looks to be double bottoming above weekly SR but spreads on Greek bonds are at record wides again and yields on 10 yr Greek paper are over 10%. It makes you wonder how long the EU will keep buying all this stuff. I am still looking for a bounce in EURGBP to 83 initially then 85.50.
CHFJPY stopped out - TL break - (-1R)
GBPAUD stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY short 134.00 stop 1.3450 PT 132.00 - see chart from yesterday
CRUDE 1st short closed balance @ 76.00 (+1.8R)
CRUDE 2nd short closed balance @76.00 (+1.3R)
AUDJPY closed balance 1st short 77.10 (+2.8R)
AUDJPY closed yest short 77.10 (+2.2R)
CABLE short closed @3R 1.4860 (+3R)
GBPJPY short closed 1.3350 (+1R)
CRUDE 1st short closed balance @ 76.00 (+1.8R)
CRUDE 2nd short closed balance @76.00 (+1.3R)
AUDJPY closed balance 1st short 77.10 (+2.8R)
AUDJPY closed yest short 77.10 (+2.2R)
CABLE short closed @3R 1.4860 (+3R)
GBPJPY short closed 1.3350 (+1R)
Open positions:
Flat
CABLE has broken and retested the trendline resistance I was looking at (thick line) and now looks set for higher next week.
Hence I have now also closed GBPJPY shorts. If another drop shapes up today I will re-short because this set up looks best to me.
Possible right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders forming but holding below 1.2330 SR and broken short term trendline support. A close today between 1.2150 and 1.2465 makes it a weekly inside bar and a pullback in a possible bigger uptrend targeting 1.26
Gold is at big SR resistance at 1250 and also the 61.8fib retracement level. For me this is a low risk entry short, even though it is against the bigger up trend.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Thursday 24 June
As I said last night I am still in sell rally mode. With big moves in the London session the US session could start with a bit of a rally but I am still looking for 1078 then 1065 in the S+P and 73.75 in crude and 1222/1215 next in Gold.
The move down in EURGBP has been relentless and stopped cable falling but below the 1.50 level I still like it short and EURGBP is now on a big weekly SR level from 2008 and could find support here or at 81.00 to help cable shorts.
Target for EURUSD is still 1.21 / 1.2150 for now
Target for AUDUSD 0.8575 / 0.8550
Target for AUDJPY 76.50
CRUDE short 76.00 stop 76.50 PT 73.75
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
GOLD short 1234 stop 1238 PT 1215
GOLD stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short 77.35 stop 77.75 PT 76.50/80 addition
CRUDE closed breakeven - trade not working
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
USDCAD closed balance 1.0425 dbl top (+2.25R)
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80 - TL/resistance line touch
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50 - addition
Open positions:
PS, thank you for the messages, I am fine. The earthquake was scary, some pictures fell down but it didn't last very long.
Update: USDJPY is at a daily trendline / channel bottom. If it finds support here then the XXXJPY's aren't going to work. I am watching this one. Obviously if it falls out here then we look good.
GBPAUD at interesting S&R level and 50fib to reload shorts. 4hr chart
USDCAD has broken trendline resistance, 4hr chart. This pair is normally a good leading indicator of which way we are going. BUT is at 61.8fib of last swing so ... we watch
EURGBP weekly
Big support level has held ... and a good bounce
GBPJPY 4hr
Watching for a breakdown of this wedge
The move down in EURGBP has been relentless and stopped cable falling but below the 1.50 level I still like it short and EURGBP is now on a big weekly SR level from 2008 and could find support here or at 81.00 to help cable shorts.
Target for EURUSD is still 1.21 / 1.2150 for now
Target for AUDUSD 0.8575 / 0.8550
Target for AUDJPY 76.50
CRUDE short 76.00 stop 76.50 PT 73.75
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
GOLD short 1234 stop 1238 PT 1215
GOLD stopped out (-1R)
AUDJPY short 77.35 stop 77.75 PT 76.50/80 addition
CRUDE closed breakeven - trade not working
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
USDCAD closed balance 1.0425 dbl top (+2.25R)
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80 - TL/resistance line touch
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50 - addition
Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 76.80 / 75.60 - 1/4 position
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50
AUDJPY short 78.00 stop 78.40 PT 76.50
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80
GPBAUD short 1.7250 stop 1.7310 PT 1.70
CABLE short 1.4980 stop 1.5020 1st PT 1.4850
CHFJPY short 81.35 stop 81.50 PT 80
PS, thank you for the messages, I am fine. The earthquake was scary, some pictures fell down but it didn't last very long.
Big support level has held ... and a good bounce
Watching for a breakdown of this wedge
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
FOMC day
Quiet morning, England world cup day, Wimbledon and then this afternoon FOMC!
Another winning day for the bears yesterday and the S&P back below the 200 daily SMA.
Chinese banks apparently bought up the USD vs the Yuan again last night so no big change there. I wonder how much longer we are going to keep watching it.
My view hasn't changed since Monday and I am still selling rallies and expect the down moves to continue for a bit longer. I will post a chart if I see anything interesting.
Sterling is well bid and GBPAUD is on the move this morning. It has bounced off the 61.8fib retracement and should go to the 38.2 fib next at around 1.7250 which is also a good SR level. I have taken a long entry but I might be a bit late for the train.
CRUDE is approaching the bottom of the rising channel. I will add more short looking for a break of the channel at 74.50 / 75.00
Chinese banks apparently bought up the USD vs the Yuan again last night so no big change there. I wonder how much longer we are going to keep watching it.
My view hasn't changed since Monday and I am still selling rallies and expect the down moves to continue for a bit longer. I will post a chart if I see anything interesting.
EURGBP long 82.70 stop 82.57 PT 85.00
EURGBP stopped out (-1R)
Cable balance stopped out (-0.5R)
CRUDE short addition closed 50% @3R 77.10 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @3R 78.55 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD long 1.7050 stop 1.70 PT 1.7250
CRUDE original short closed 25% @6R 76.60 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 76.40 stop 70.80 PT 74.50 bearflag break
CRUDE short today closed 50% @3R 75.20 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY short closed 25% @6R 78.75 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY addition closed 50% @3R 78.55 (+1.5R)
USDCAD closed 25% @6R 1.0350 (+1.5R)
CRUDE second short closed 25% @6R (+1.5R)
GBPAUD closed 1.7085 (+0.7R) - Pre Fed Announcement
CRUDE addition today closed 75.60 (+1R) - Pre Fed announcement
AUDJPY addition closed balance 78.20 (+2R) - Pre Fed announcement.
GBPAUD long 1.7050 stop 1.70 PT 1.7250
CRUDE original short closed 25% @6R 76.60 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 76.40 stop 70.80 PT 74.50 bearflag break
CRUDE short today closed 50% @3R 75.20 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY short closed 25% @6R 78.75 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY addition closed 50% @3R 78.55 (+1.5R)
USDCAD closed 25% @6R 1.0350 (+1.5R)
CRUDE second short closed 25% @6R (+1.5R)
GBPAUD closed 1.7085 (+0.7R) - Pre Fed Announcement
CRUDE addition today closed 75.60 (+1R) - Pre Fed announcement
AUDJPY addition closed balance 78.20 (+2R) - Pre Fed announcement.
Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 76.80 / 75.60 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 PT 74.50 - 1/4 position
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460 - 1/4 position
Evening update.
Price spikes post FOMC have stalled at the 50fib retracement. I am still in sell rally mode so will be adding some shorts.
Evening update.
Price spikes post FOMC have stalled at the 50fib retracement. I am still in sell rally mode so will be adding some shorts.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
UK Budget day
The new team Macro-Man thought the Chinese fake-out was one of the best jokes ever and a masterclass in Central Bank currency management. A great read.
We are about to get the UK budget and I am watching my cable position. If it comes out sterling negative I will add some sterling shorts or I will add on a bounce because I think this pull-back week is set to continue.
Structure breaks have occurred and cable has fallen out of its ascending channel (4hr chart) and targets to the downside are 1.450, 1.4350 and a retest of the lows.
GBPJPY is testing trendline support and looks the best choice on a sterling-negative budget. Every approach to 136 in this pair has been sold.
GBPCHF does not look like such a good short but EURGBP looks like a good buy with an upside target of 0.8550 and resistance at 84.20.
GBPAUD, my favourite risk meter still has a big gap to fill on the upside from Sunday's open and I would sell a spike up in that pair to 1.70 or 1.7050.
Gold finally fell off its perch and downside fibonacci targets are 1230, 1196 and 1168.
Apart from cable I expect dollar crosses to trade quietly before tomorrow's FOMC but it is Turnaround Tuesday so we shall see.
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 78.10 (+1.5R)
GBPUSD closed 50% @3R 1.4715 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @ 3R 79.65 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 - 50% retrace of Mon drop
AUDJPY short 79.60 stop 79.95 - addition
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0275 (+1.5R)
Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - 1/2 + 79.60 stop 79.95
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - 1/2 + 78.60 stop 79.10
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
We are about to get the UK budget and I am watching my cable position. If it comes out sterling negative I will add some sterling shorts or I will add on a bounce because I think this pull-back week is set to continue.
Structure breaks have occurred and cable has fallen out of its ascending channel (4hr chart) and targets to the downside are 1.450, 1.4350 and a retest of the lows.
GBPJPY is testing trendline support and looks the best choice on a sterling-negative budget. Every approach to 136 in this pair has been sold.
GBPCHF does not look like such a good short but EURGBP looks like a good buy with an upside target of 0.8550 and resistance at 84.20.
GBPAUD, my favourite risk meter still has a big gap to fill on the upside from Sunday's open and I would sell a spike up in that pair to 1.70 or 1.7050.
Gold finally fell off its perch and downside fibonacci targets are 1230, 1196 and 1168.
Apart from cable I expect dollar crosses to trade quietly before tomorrow's FOMC but it is Turnaround Tuesday so we shall see.
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 78.10 (+1.5R)
GBPUSD closed 50% @3R 1.4715 (+1.5R)
AUDJPY closed 50% @ 3R 79.65 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 78.60 stop 79.10 - 50% retrace of Mon drop
AUDJPY short 79.60 stop 79.95 - addition
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
USDCAD closed 50% @3R 1.0275 (+1.5R)
Open positions:
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - 1/2 + 79.60 stop 79.95
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - 1/2 + 78.60 stop 79.10
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.2280 stop 1.2310 PT 1.2150
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0175 PT 1.0460
Monday, June 21, 2010
Monday 21 June
The Yuan announcement killed a few of my trades from Friday ...
NZDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
AUDUSD short stopped out (-1R)
AUDCHF balance stopped out 0.9730 (+0.5R)
USDJPY closed break even, trade not working.
EURCAD stopped out 1.26 break of trendline support (+0.55R)
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - gap fill
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - gap fill
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - dibs
USDJPY closed break even, trade not working.
EURCAD stopped out 1.26 break of trendline support (+0.55R)
AUDJPY short 80.55 stop 80.85 PT 79 - gap fill
CRUDE short 79.60 stop 80.10 PT 77.40 - gap fill
CABLE short 148.35 stop 1.4875 PT 1.47 - dibs
I have the following positions open:
Update:
If the SPX closes the gap then it will break the channel support and back into the wedge ...
Update:
Charts and analysis
Fake out!! After the announcement that China would allow the Yuan to be more flexible vs the dollar the markets rallied hard at the open Sunday night, dollar down hard, crude, indices, other currencies up big. But they must have forgotten to tell the Chinese Central Bank because when they released the Monday rates the Yuan vs the dollar was unchanged and then to add insult to injury they devalued the Yuan vs the Euro, GBP, yen, etc. Oops. Or maybe they meant to do that ...
I do not get the fuss about revaluing the yuan. Unless the US public saves more and produces more and buys less crap then higher priced imports are just going to act like a tax going to the Chinese. Or am I missing something.
After big moves off the lows and the jump Sunday open a lot of currency markets and crude are at significant SR or fib retracement levels where a pull back is possible. For the past 11 years the week following June options expiration has been negative for stocks. That doesn't mean it will happen again but it is a significant statistic. Last week ended with very very quiet trade for an option expiry week, and no retracement of the big rallies. Indices consolidated sideways for three days instead of pulling back which is bullish and may mean any pullbacks will be shallow.
Interesting statistic - The S&P currently trades at the level of March 1998, when gold was trading at $302. Dennis Gartman gave a good interview on Friday about why Gold is still going up.
SPX - 4hr chart
FTSE 4hr chart
CRUDE
Dollar Index
GOLD
EURUSD daily chart
USDCHF
USDJPY
Price broke 90.80 support tonight and the bearish trend continues. I expect 91.70 to hold as resistance and USDJPY to continue lower to the bottom of the rising channel and then retest 88.13. A break above 92.12 changes my view to bullish.
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
EURGBP
Has traded sideways the last few days I am looking for the upwards correction to continue to 85.50
I do not get the fuss about revaluing the yuan. Unless the US public saves more and produces more and buys less crap then higher priced imports are just going to act like a tax going to the Chinese. Or am I missing something.
After big moves off the lows and the jump Sunday open a lot of currency markets and crude are at significant SR or fib retracement levels where a pull back is possible. For the past 11 years the week following June options expiration has been negative for stocks. That doesn't mean it will happen again but it is a significant statistic. Last week ended with very very quiet trade for an option expiry week, and no retracement of the big rallies. Indices consolidated sideways for three days instead of pulling back which is bullish and may mean any pullbacks will be shallow.
Interesting statistic - The S&P currently trades at the level of March 1998, when gold was trading at $302. Dennis Gartman gave a good interview on Friday about why Gold is still going up.
Price has broken the descending trendline resistance from the flash-crash rally high so the trend is up and the trendline should now become support. After three days trading sideways in a bull flag or equal triangle the Sunday open saw a breakout to the upside. Price then stalled at the 50fib retracement from the April top and the 61.8fib retracement from the flash-crash rally high which is an area of confluence that could cause a wobble. This market is a buy on dips for me, short term and if the top if the wedge does not hold as support then I expect a pullback (if not Monday then Turnaround Tuesday) to retest support at 1090 or 1081.50 and then the rally to continue.
Higher highs and higher lows put FTSE back in an uptrend but price has stalled and like the SPX I am looking for a pullback to retest 5100 (50% retracement of the move off the lows) or 5050 (61.8fib retracement) to buy again. The daily has a bearish Gartley pattern which suggests a retest of the lows at 4900 is also possible for the FTSE.
With the big jump at the open Sunday night Crude now has a 200 pip gap and has stalled at the 61.8fib retracement from the May high to low big drop. I expect $80 to be tested and then am looking for a pullback (I expect to 75.00 or 73.00) to buy again.
Dollar index has dropped hard and the break below the previous swing low at 85.13 confirms the down trend continues. I would not be surprised to see a bounce here but I expect a retest the long term descending trendline (from Feb 02) before the uptrend continues.
After the wedge breakout followed by new highs in Gold I now expect Gold to test 1267 and the 1.618 fib extension before pulling back to retest support. Gold futures options expire at the end of this week and Gold often falls into option expiry and rallies afterwards.
Major currencies
EURUSD is having its best rally in 9 months and is set to test resistance and round number 1.25 also the 78.6fib retracement where I expect a bounce / pullback. I am a buyer of dips looking for 1.2850 and 1.31 before the bigger down trend continues.
GBPUSD
Cable has a bearish Gartley fibonacci pattern on the daily chart and has made two equal measured moves off the lows at 1.4885 but looks likely to test 1.4950 / 1.50 next. I am looking for clear price action to short (target 1.4550) but because of cable's habit of going sideways I may pass. My longer term view of cable remains bearish and I may wait for better levels to sell from.
Cable has a bearish Gartley fibonacci pattern on the daily chart and has made two equal measured moves off the lows at 1.4885 but looks likely to test 1.4950 / 1.50 next. I am looking for clear price action to short (target 1.4550) but because of cable's habit of going sideways I may pass. My longer term view of cable remains bearish and I may wait for better levels to sell from.
Bearish correction on track for target of 1.09 where resistance becomes support and 61.8fib retracement. I am waiting for price action there to go long. A break below 1.09 and the rising trendline targets 1.0450
Price broke 90.80 support tonight and the bearish trend continues. I expect 91.70 to hold as resistance and USDJPY to continue lower to the bottom of the rising channel and then retest 88.13. A break above 92.12 changes my view to bullish.
AUDUSD blasted through my potential reversal level at 87.00 and now sitting at 88.00 SR level. It is not a fib level to tempt me to short and I am looking for price action at 88.85 or 89.50 now for aussie to pullback. The move has left a pretty good size gap for Aussie to fill.
1.015 is support and the point where USDCAD has made two equal measured moves down from the May high. If price closes below here then it will likely continue to test 1.00 and then 0.9820
Strongly bullish the 70.70 SR level and 61.8 fib failed to stall the NZD advance and the next target is the descending trendline resistance and 88.6fib level.
Has traded sideways the last few days I am looking for the upwards correction to continue to 85.50
More charts to follow ...
Friday, June 18, 2010
Friday 18 June 2010 - Quadruple Witching
Quadruple Witching option expiry today would normally mean some volatility and unexpected moves although volatility has died a bit, I am not sure if it is the world cup.
We are definately set up for a pull back and risk-off Friday. Strong bonds and strong Gold are not what you usually see together, Gold may have triple topped and bonds should help it as a short but it is hard to sell against such a strong trend.
The breakdown in USDJPY means that Yen crosses should be better shorts than USD crosses.
USDJPY has broken out of wedge support to the downside, with the help of strong bond market and downside target is the bottom of the rising channel around 89.50
AUDUSD has hit the 61.8fib and SR level at 0.87 and I am short looking for a pullback to 0.8550 SR and then 84 as a minimum target. AUDUSD is a bearish gartley pattern.
EURCHF
Breaking big lows ... the SNB are now said to tolerate 1.30 and the market is going to test that ... it means CHF is not an attractive short while this is going on.
CRUDE
Broke trendline support, has fibonacci and structure support at 75 but the 61.8fib and SR level at 73 seem possible too.
I will add more charts in a bit but its all one trade and its all looking like risk off. GBPUSD and GBPJPY are also daily bearish gartley or butterfly patterns and also the FTSE index ...
Weakest currency today is NZD and the strongest is JPY so I am planning to sell NZDJPY which is also a bearish Gartley pattern on the daily chart and 4 hour wedge suggesting some energy is storing up ... target 62.25 & 61.75 and a stop above 64.20
AUDUSD short 0.87 stop 0.873 PT 0.8550 / 0.84
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 75.70 (+1.5R)
CRUDE balance stopped out @1R 76.50 (+0.5R)
NZDJPY short 64.18 stop 64.38, PT 62.25 - top of wedge
INTERESTING STATISTIC FOR NEXT WEEK:
For the past 11 years, every year, the week after June Options expiration has been negative for the stock market.
We are definately set up for a pull back and risk-off Friday. Strong bonds and strong Gold are not what you usually see together, Gold may have triple topped and bonds should help it as a short but it is hard to sell against such a strong trend.
The breakdown in USDJPY means that Yen crosses should be better shorts than USD crosses.
EURCHF
Breaking big lows ... the SNB are now said to tolerate 1.30 and the market is going to test that ... it means CHF is not an attractive short while this is going on.
Broke trendline support, has fibonacci and structure support at 75 but the 61.8fib and SR level at 73 seem possible too.
I will add more charts in a bit but its all one trade and its all looking like risk off. GBPUSD and GBPJPY are also daily bearish gartley or butterfly patterns and also the FTSE index ...
AUDUSD short 0.87 stop 0.873 PT 0.8550 / 0.84
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 75.70 (+1.5R)
CRUDE balance stopped out @1R 76.50 (+0.5R)
NZDJPY short 64.18 stop 64.38, PT 62.25 - top of wedge
I have the following positions open:
AUDCHF short 0.9780 stop 0.9830 PT 0.955 / 0.9275 - 1/2
EURCAD long 1.2550 stop 1.2460 PT 1.3330
USDJPY short 91.07 stop 91.47 PT 89.50 / 88.50
INTERESTING STATISTIC FOR NEXT WEEK:
For the past 11 years, every year, the week after June Options expiration has been negative for the stock market.
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