Monday, March 29, 2010

Weekly analysis

More charts later ...

Dollar Index (June):
Uptrend – weekly has resumed and price is contained in an ascending channel. A pullback on Friday looks more like profit taking and a bounce on Greece news rather than a trend reversal and I am looking for dollar strength to continue this week. Price should continue up and test the top of the channel just above 84.00, and only a drop below 81.30 means the uptrend has stalled for me.

S+P futures -
Weekly bullish continuation, daily neutral, another groundhog week in the indices with new highs followed by a pullback or sideways trading. The strong uptrend is still intact and I am looking for a pullback to test support at 1150 before a move higher to 1200. A break below 1150 sets up 1130. A drop and close below 1119 would mean a stall of the current uptrend and a test of 1100.

FTSE 100 futures - Weekly bullish engulfing, daily, daily inside bar following bearish shooting star. Like the S&P the uptrend is strong and intact after making new highs last week. Short term trend is bearish but I would be looking for support to buy at 5610 and 5558.

Another weekly doji, daily high roller doji. Bears are in charge as the dollar is rallying but aren’t able to hold a close below $80 yet. Market looks toppy and choppy but the longer term uptrend is still intact and should not be ignored. Crude is a good intraday sell on dollar strength and a buy on strong up days in the indices. Support is at $78 but the chart suggests a retest of $75 possible, I will keep trading this as a shorter term range trade (with dollar strength I prefer the short side) and would consider a buy for a longer swing at 75.

Gold is mid range in an equal triangle / flag pattern and too hard to call at this point. The long term trend is bullish but I still prefer this on the short side shorter term. It has tried four or five times unsuccessfully to break the 1100 level but continued dollar strength should see this break eventually and I am still looking for a retest of 1000 from above. I am a seller of rallies.

SILVER. Similar to gold, my shorter term bias is short and I am a seller of rallies and would sell off the 17.00 level looking for a break of 16.75 with a target of 15.70

Currencies - Majors
Weekly & daily bearish continuation. I have been bearish this pair for a couple of weeks, my first target of 90 was hit on Friday and price bounced there. I still like this lower with continued dollar strength and would sell rallies (I am looking at 90.90) looking for 90 support to break and a second target of 88 this coming week. A close above 92.50 negates my view.

NZDUSD – Small weekly doji inside bar held below 61.8fib retracement of the last swing, daily bearish doji in consolidation. I still like this lower and my downside target is 0.6640/0.6580 and expect some resistance at 69.70

USDCAD – Small weekly bullish bar off new lows, daily bullish doji. If you think USDCAD is going to parity then this 1.0260 previous support (and triple bottom) is a good level to sell off but I like this higher and I would wait for the 1.0450 area. I am going to pass on this one for now.

GBPUSD – Bear flag broke down last week and I am still a seller of rallies. Despite a good bounce Friday this pair has further down to go. Cable tends to spend some time consolidating after big moves and this could be one of those weeks but I am a seller off 1.4950 / 1.50 levels and expect some back and fill before moving lower. My downside target is around 1.4140.

EURUSD – Weekly bullish hammer and daily bullish marabuzo in a strong downtrend. I am not buying these setups and I am a seller of rallies! Weekly bear flag broke down taking many by surprise, prior to that the bearish sentiment was extreme and this could return very quickly and means some short squeezes is likely and Fridays bounce on the Greece resolution looks just like that. Sentiment and fundamentals are not good for EURUSD. I am selling rallies – I like the 1.35 level and my first downside target is 1.30 (then 1.28) and I expect some support at 1.32. Only a break above 1.3570 changes my bearish view.

USDJPY – Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily small doji inside bar Friday after a big breakout week for USDJPY from an 18month descending channel. I want to see 93.75 broken to the upside to confirm the trend change and then I am a buyer of dips with upside targets of 1.04 / 1.09

USDCHF – Reverse of EURUSD. I am bullish but unless the SNB step in EUR might be a better trade. Only a drop below 1.05 changes my bullish longer term view. First long target 1.09, second target 1.15


AUDJPY – Long term trend down, medium trend up. Weekly bullish engulfing candle, daily bearish consolidation after making new highs last week. This broke my 83.84 level and I change my view to bullish, buy on dips target 85.30 / 86.00

NZDJPY – Weekly bullish engulfing, daily inside bar pause after making new highs this week. This pair broke my cut off level of 65.41 (61.8fib retracement of last swing), buy on dips, target 67.00

CADJPY – Weekly bullish engulfing, this pair broke its 2009 (and dbl top) high at 90.65, I am looking for it to close above it for a target of 95.60, support at 89.60

AUDNZD – long uptrend – This pair has broken daily trendline support. I prefer to buy dips than short this, I am watching for price action at 1.590 / 1.25 – pass

EURNZD – Strong downtrend, this pair has broken out of its January / February range and is a sell on rallies or off 1.91 level, target 1.82
GBPAUD – Strong downtrend, in a bear flag at the top of the flag range I like this short off 1.65 with a target of 1.6250/ 1.60
AUDCAD – Downtrend, weekly inside bar, and in a very tight triangle. I am a seller of rallies or the break of daily trend-line support. I see this as a US/China trade, I still like this one a lot …

EURAUD – Weekly countertrend bullish hammer after euro bounced Friday on Greece resolution news. I would not buy this counter trend but wait for a better price to sell from. Pass for this week.

GPBJPY – Weekly bullish, daily inside bar, this looks like a shorter term uptrend / bear flag. If 138.50 resistance does not hold then looks set to rally to 140.60

GBPCHF – Strong downtrend, weekly doji pause, daily bullish correction, this one is a pass for now, I would wait for price action at 1.62 / 1.63 to short again.

EURGBP - Because this pair failed to touch the top of the wedge I am not clear if the upswing is over. If it is then I like it short first target 88.40

EURJPY – Bearish / bear flag. A countertrend rally underway, I am looking for price action to short at 126.90 / 128.90

EURCHF – Weekly bullish hammer countertrend after falling out of bed. A countertrend long on Greek euphoria is tempting or will wait for price action to short at 1.4438

USDNOK – Weekly bullish continuation, this pair has broken out of a bull flag and made new swing high. I like this long, I am looking to buy dip to 5.870 / 6.00

USDSGD - Weekly bullish doji continuation, daily bearish engulfing after dollar weakness Friday. I like this long and I would buy a retest of 1.40 if dollar strength continues.


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