Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Wednesday March 17

D-day.  Dollar index at trendline support and a failure here means we likely do not get another measured move up and a deeper correction more likely.  This fits with the bullish setups on the majors but all still held at big SR levels.  I know I have a bearish bias and I am bullish the USD, but I do try and look at charts objectively, we still could go either way.

S&P has blown through measured move, SR levels and fib targets without any pullbacks and so I am out of upside targets and only have fib extensions left. A runaway train.  A break down of the uptrend now sets up a retest of 1152 from above.  Ftse has held the upper boundary of the measured move and has not broken out, likewise for other European indices.  Update:  FTSE now broken out too .... hmm.  Bearish gartley patterns may be setting up on the Russel and the CAC, will post charts if they work out.

Gold breakout long produced a long marabuzo and like the S&P has continued with no pullback thru the 61.8fib looks set for 1135 SR level & 78.6 fib.  If I was inclined to buy (I am not) then I would buy a retest of 1118.  The upside target would be the trendline and SR level at 1140. 

The most reliable pattern I can see is the bearish gartley on AUDUSD.  Whilst all the other commodity currencies have rallied hard Aussie has held this level, giving me confidence that this pattern may work, the dollar index may get support here and the SR levels hold in the other currencies.  I would not be a buyer of the breakouts in NZD or CAD into strong SR levels. 

EURUSD has to break and close above 138 and Cable above the 50fib level at 15275 before retracing to get me interested in buying a pullback.  Until then they remain range trades and we are at the top of the range.  I got stopped out of EURUSD short this morning, I thought the much vaunted option barrier resistance would hold and it serves me right  for having my stop in the same place as everyone else.

Market moving news today, UK employment, US core PPI and PPI, Crude inventories, OPEC meeting and Bernanke testifies.

PS - Check EURCHF.  Someone is really testing to see if its a newer softer SNB (they are braver than me).

I haven't had a limit down day this year yet, yesterday was a squeaker, I am keeping some powder dry today.

EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE short 82.75 stop 83.15 PT 81.30
CABLE short 1.5370 stop 1.5410 PT 1.5270 / 1.5130
GBPJPY short 139.00 stop 139.40 - 61.8fib and big SR
GOLD short 1128 stop 1133  PT 1118 /1111.5
EURJPY short 124.60 stop 124.85 PT 123.30
CRUDE stopped out 82.75 BE
EURJPY closed 50% @3R 123.85 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 83.00 stop 83.40 PT 81.20 trying again

Open trades:
CABLE short 1.5370 stop 1.5410
GBPJPY short 139.00 stop 139.40
GOLD short 1128 stop 1133
EURJPY short 124.60 stop 124.85 - 1/2
CRUDE short 83.00 stop 83.40

I am not on the front month but trading May contract since Monday.  I am looking for a countertrend short entry here and watching for inventories and Opec news.

Cable daily

GBPJPY daily

Happy St Patrick's Day.

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