Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Tuesday 16th March

A literally last minute ramp up on the S&P gives a Hanging Man daily candle below last week's high.  The measured move could still hold.  Today is FOMC later so a day to stay sharp (and Turnaround Tuesday, not always my favourite day).

The majors like EURUSD and CABLE are back to being range trades for now.  EURUSD has to break above 138 to continue the rounded bottom and below 135.5 negates it and suggests that the three drives pattern down is more likely.  The V shape bounces off the lows are not encouraging for bears.
USDCAD tested 1.02 from the underside and bounced but the daily does not leave me convinced we are about to power down from here.  More information required.  CAD still the strongest of the majors and NOK is at my level so if its a cut and reverse day I like it.

No love for me in Gold but the upmove is corrective so I am staying short.  I can take some comfort from the fact my metals trading is going a little better than these guys - February Report

GBPJPY closed 25% @ 6xR 135.54 (+1.5R)
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1R)
EURUSD balance stopped out (-0.5R)
GBPJPY short 137.20 stop 137.50 addition
GOLD addition balance stopped out (-0.5R)
GOLD balance stopped out (-0.5R)
EURJPY short 124.10 stop 124.50 PT 121.50
NZDUSD balance stopped out (-0.5R)
CRUDE short balance closed 81.40 (+1R)
EURJPY stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY balance & addition stopped out (-0.75R)
CABLE balance stopped out BE pre FOMC
AUDUSD balance stopped out BE pre FOMC
EURUSD closed 1.3732 pre FOMC (+0.8R)
USDJPY stopped BE pre FOMC
USDJPY short 90.45 stop 90.65 - re-entry
EURUSD short 13765 stop 138.05 re-entry
AUDCAD stopped out (-1R)
USDJPY closed 90.15 double bottom post BoJ (+1.5R)

Overall a down day.

Open trades:
EURUSD short 13765 stop 138.05 

Has had a little breakout. I was expecting it to get to the daily trendline, I should have had a better short entry but I hesitated at 1140.  Lesson learned.


  1. More on Ebullio - http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL955173820091009?pageNumber=4&virtualBrandChannel=0

    A lesson to rival the Hunt brothers?