Thursday, March 4, 2010

Thursday 04 March 2010

What a night, and I didn't stay up (unusually!).
Shanghai index down 2.4% overnight on news that China PBOC may raise the banks reserve ratio again.  Biggest drop in 5 weeks and index futures crater and dollar gets a nice risk bid and yen even more so.  I got burned in EURUSD yesterday, but EURJPY looks better today and Gold & Silver have bounced off good daily SR levels too.
UK MPC rate statement later this morning will be a market mover for Sterling, I like GBPJPY here as the 1hr TL support has broken.  EUR min bid rate too.

Update:  It seems quite a sell off is underway.  Perhaps the market knows the NFP number is ugly and is selling the rumour and buying the news.

New trades:
NZDJPY closed 50% @3xR 60.70 (+1.5R)
NZDUSD closed 50% @3xR 68.70 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD closed 50% @3xR 92.05 (+1.5R) - finally
GBPJPY short 132.85 stop 1.3315 target 1.32
CABLE short 1.5025 stop 1.5050 TL break, anticipating break of 1.50 (or I will cut it)
CABLE stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1R) - I was too quick this morning :(
EURGBP short 90.70 stop 90.85 target 90.25
NZDUSD short 0.6900 stop 0.6920 target 0.6840 addition
EURUSD short 1.3630 stop 1.3660 4hr IB, target lows -will post chart
USDJPY balance stopped out (-0.5R)
AUDCAD short 92.80 stop 93.05 target 90 - see chart below
CABLE short 1.5048 stop 1.5088, see chart target lows.
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 79.62 (+1.5R)
EURGBP closed 50% @3xR 90.25 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
AUDCAD short 0.9365 stop 0.9385 - 1/2 &  92.80 stop 93.05
NZDJPY short 61.60 stop 61.90 - 1/2
NZDUSD short 69.45 stop 69.70 - 1/2
CRUDE short 80.82 stop 81.22 - 1/2
CABLE short 1.5048 stop 1.5088
EURUSD short 1.3630 stop 1.3660
EURGBP short 90.70 stop 90.85 - 1/2

EURGBP 1hr ...
one way or another ...

EURUSD 4hr chart
EURUSD is a range trade to me, and it failed to hold above the top of the range.  I took the 4hr IB, but on the 1hr its a lower high and a bearish engulfing bar, so both are valid entries for me.  They both show rejection of the level.

AUDCAD daily chart
I added to this trade on a 1hr IB anticipating a breakout of this triangle.  If it fails to break I will close both trades.

Break of pin bar and trendline.  Trying again on this one.


  1. Hello Nic! Nice analysis. Can you post more charts? or better describe the core fo your methodology and setups.

    Best regards!

  2. Unbelievable again, well done!